Mount Joy Snowman

That is just a really poor map by the Euro for being only 24 hours out. Unless of course it's right, then......gulp. But honestly, I think we have to toss it. With what Bubbler said about the funny business with the Low placement, it is likely struggling with how to handle location and intensity of the precipitation.

You aren't kidding. Just had a call with my boss about this. Don't think I'm going into the office tomorrow.

The RRFS seems stuck on hour 23 but this is what it has for 6am tomorrow, with the flip imminent for York/Lancaster. I've been impressed with this model since its soft launch.

The FV3 has made a career out of looking foolish. So often it just seems to be completely out to lunch. Not sure what the issue is.

Forgive me if it was already mentioned somewhere but MDT did in fact set a max min record yesterday of 41.

Yeah you're right. I just meant that they still hold that basic look of a central to southern PA type storm with advisory to warning level amounts. Big picture stayed roughly the same. But yes, totals were slashed a bit.

FWIW, the WRF models basically hold serve in being similar to the NAM.

That's exactly what I'm thinking they'll do as well. Yep. If we can get 2+ inch per hour stuff, all bets are off.

3k and 12k are still world's apart with southern totals. Again, how much white rain falls? Elevation, as always, will help tremendously.

NAM is rock steady. A wee bit colder which is good but very quick hitter. It's gonna be all about the THUMP. Got to get it while the gettin's good. Should be a fun few hours tomorrow morning.

Low of 34 here with .01" of rain. Could we be in for a proper NAM'ing here at 12z?

The 12z RAP has a similar look to the HRRR through the end of its run. Correct me if I'm wrong, because I wasn't following the models closely the last few days, but would this not be quite the early score for the NAM in leading the way?

Even if you cut these projected totals in half, which I would certainly recommend, we're still looking at an advisory type of event down this way. Impressive.

Yeah, for you the flip looks like it could happen as early as 2-3am.

Man, she's a quick hitter. Out of here within a few hours. But boy oh boy could it thump with those dynamics as depicted. Total damage......

Just a beautiful look at H24, with a 984 sitting right in the southern Chesapeake and dumping snow region-wide.

12z HRRR has the SLP further south than 6z through 18 hours, by a decent margin.

Well well well, things have gotten a bit interesting haven't they. I love being wrong ha. Been pouring through some guidance this morning and the one thing that seems clear for the southern tier is that all of our potential snowfall relies on the coastal developing in just the right manner such that it quickly crashes the column and provides for a few hour period of heavy snow right around the morning commute. How much is initially white rain and how efficiently it accumulates will be big X-factors, but I'll be a monkey's uncle if it doesn't look more likely than not at this point that we're going to get at least a couple inches of paste tomorrow. Got my eyes on this 12z suite. First up is the HRRR, running as we speak.

41 here with a couple hundredths of rain and one drunk fella. I’ll be all aboard come tomorrow morning’s shift. Still think this isn’t much of a storm for us down here but some models want to prove me wrong, which would be glorious. Cheers mates!

Low of 44 here. I have always believed this to be a true central to northern PA type event and expect even further shifts to the north. Would put the over/under at one inch down this way and would probably take the under. As always, hope to be wrong. Happy Super Bowl Sunday everyone!

I’m with ya brotha.

You summed up my position perfectly. I’m not expecting anything noteworthy (perhaps an inch or two if we get lucky) but still keeping a loose eye on the modeling in case things start to break more favorably as we get inside of 48 hours.

Low of 38 here. MDT busted quite low at 35. Between that and a high of only 57 yesterday, no records were even threatened. We’ll see what today brings.

One thing that's becoming clear for those of us here in the southern LSV, is that this is the ultimate thread the needle situation. Speed of the system, surface temps, potency and path of the Low.......all of it needs to be juuuuust right for us to get meaningful snowfall down this way. And even then, a wet snow falling onto a rain-soaked warm ground will not make for the most efficient accumulations. It can be done but it's definitely a Goldilocks situation. I think this is ultimately a storm for true central to northern PA. As always, hope to be wrong.

https://x.com/MUweather/status/1755994196190564408?s=20 Edit: I thought that would embed that actual tweet but nope. I know from my cell I can sometimes include the tweet. Whatever.....technology.