Mount Joy Snowman

the future.... HGEFS (Hybrid-GEFS): A pioneering, hybrid "grand ensemble" that combines the new AI-based AIGEFS (above) with NOAA’s flagship ensemble model, the Global Ensemble Forecast System. Initial testing shows that this model, a first-of-its kind approach for an operational weather center, consistently outperforms both the AI-only and physics-only ensemble systems. HGEFS — the most innovative application in the new suite. The HGEFS is a 62-member "grand ensemble" created by combining the 31 members of the physical GEFS with the 31 members of the AI-based AIGEFS. Performance: by combining two different modeling systems (one physics-based, one AI-based), the HGEFS creates a larger, more robust ensemble that more effectively represents forecast uncertainty. As a result, the HGEFS consistently outperforms both the GEFS and the AIGEFS across most major verification metrics. A NOAA first: to our knowledge, NOAA is the first organization in the world to implement such a hybrid physical-AI ensemble system. Area for future improvement: NOAA continues its work to improve HGEFS’s hurricane intensity forecasts.

.03” of rain and temp up to 43. Time to brace for the winds!

The staying power of this ice is impressive. Between the cold temps and minimal solar the trees still look great and even some other surfaces are hanging on. I’m still at 32 under thick clouds and the pines look amazing.

My current temp of 29 hasn’t budged all through the night.

My daytime temp never got above 33 today. Now at 31. Been a fair amount of low busts in the temp department lately. Love it.

Absolutely, fantastic effort. Dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and that was with an Oline of nearly all backups. Ethan was outstanding, sure looks like he could be the future. I was impressed with the entire team today in tough conditions. Nice way to end the year. Onward.

Official tally here is .3” of sleet and ice off of .33” liquid.

Yes, my wife takes our kids to that place fairly often.

I saw some mPing reports of snowfall ~8am in the area of @Jns2183

I’m still at 30 degrees and everything is caked in a solid quarter inch of solid ice. Not going anywhere until things soften up a bit this afternoon. Thought I’d have more sleet but it’s a pretty scene out there either way. Ready for more cold as we approach the New Year. Melting down the gauge and will report back with qpf. Toodles.

I’m hanging at 29. We just walked home from the neighbor’s and my god it’s a pure ice sheet out there, and yes we saw a few mangled flakes mixed in as well. Luckily it seems most people are staying off the roads.

My temp dropped to 27. We just walked to the neighbors house for a little kid gathering and man things are slick already. Driveways and walkways were wicked. Roads still hanging on but I have a feeling things are going to be BAD later.

Damn, that’s that mid level warmth over performing as we talked about. Mid level warmth and low level cold consistently over perform.

28/22 with everything already iced over and what appears to be a heavy batch of sleet on the doorstep.

Sitting at 30/15 as light sleet has started to break out.

Mt. Shasta! My profile pic!

It's certainly possible, and if that does end up being the case it will likely be due to lack of qpf more than anything else. Additionally, the worst of the conditions may hold off until much later in the evening after people are done running around, which would add to the perceived flop. I still think conditions will be treacherous for a time tonight, but it may be late enough to not cause serious problems. We shall see.

Him hyperventilating about one day in the low 50s on the eve of an impending winter storm, in a month where we are more than five degrees below average in aggregate, and with another cold plunge on the way for next week is, uuuummmmm, some kind of choice.

Low of 24. Currently sitting at 26/13 and excited for whatever comes our way.

Heck yeah, although up that way it may linger until darn near game time or at the very least the early morning hours on Saturday. Either way, should be a winter scene and very cold conditions.

Open ‘er up!

Merry Xmas to all! Kids are already done opening gifts over here. Smiles a mile wide.

Kids are all tucked in. Man what a magical time. It never gets old. Love this board. Wishing the best for all of you and yours. Twas the night before Christmas……

I wouldn’t put much stock in it. Their algorithms get all wonky in situations like this. The wording will probably change ten times between now and Friday. All I know is this, give me .5-1” of qpf thrown into a freezing cold airmass and let the chips fall where they may.