Mount Joy Snowman

I think the trepidation some of the more mainstream outlets have in throwing out big totals is twofold: 1. The sharp cutoff with the coastal that we all see depicted across multiple models and has been discussed at length. 2. That whatever falls from dawn until late afternoon tomorrow may have trouble accumulating efficiently. If we have something like 1/4" per hour rates combined with surface temps a little above freezing it is going to be difficult to build much depth. There could be a fair amount of wasted qpf, and then we're back to eying the coastal impact come evening time and everything that comes with that (see #1 above). Just my two cents, but I think it's fair to do some hedging on some of the bigger totals we're seeing the models spit out. And this is to say nothing of the fact that a slight eastward shift could still be in the cards. Lots of uncertainty but that's what makes it all "fun", I think ha. I'm setting the bar at 6" for KMJS and letting the chips fall where they may.

ICON stays fairly east, FWIW.

NAM puts down 8" at MDT and 17" at LNS haha.

NAM still pouring down snow all through Monday morning.

NAM with another beautiful depiction. The stuff dreams are made of.

Low of 33 with .01" of rain. At this point, I'd just set the Over/Under at 6" for Lanc and call it a day. @ChescoWx looks to be in a great spot for this but man that coastal cutoff between him and, say @Jns2183, could be brutal.

It wouldn't be a proper storm if I didn't bring up the RAP haha. Behold!

Canadian is still drunk but also joins the shift-west club. Keep that westward movement coming.

GFS is again a monster and perhaps even more so towards Lanc but my goodness that cutoff....

ICON gets tucked and joins the party. Big changes and big totals.

The extreme cutoff many are worried about exemplified to the max on the FV3, with 20" in eastern Lancaster County and 5" in Etown.

NAM would be historic for southcentral NJ. I continue to believe my buddy in Hammonton is in the bullseye.

NAM looks phenomenal through 48.

The HRRR paints a very solid picture, with a widespread 3-6" across our area by the end of its run at 7pm Sunday just as the coastal is ramping up. Next 12 hours would be fun to view. On to the NAM.

0z HRRR with a much better depiction through the early part of its run.

It's a totally fair concern. I would add that mixing issues through the first part of the storm have showed up on a number of models. The surface temps are marginal and really don't crash until the coastal gets ramping, so the question becomes how much qpf do we lose on the front end to mix or an inability to efficiently accumulate on surfaces. All valid concerns. Bottom line, as you said, be prepared for anything. Isn't that what makes this all fun anyway? Cheers!

Man what a score this would be for the GFS.

Yes it got real foggy real quick, even before sundown. I assume a warm air advection fog moving over the cold wet ground and remains of the snowpack?

Alright boys, what's the skinny? Grandma came over to watch the kids and the wife and I went out for lunch and some drinks. Even played some backgammon at the bar haha. Anyone partake? I've been teaching my wife. Things still ticking west? I'm going to dial in for 0z.

Yeah, AI was a good bit juicer with the qpf.

It seems like southcentral Jersey is going to be the place to be for this bad boy. I have a friend who lives in Hammonton, NJ and feel like that could be ground zero. A general 4-6" for our forum would be a nice event with some boom potential for those of us in eastern areas like Lancaster.

GFS a bit weaker and a touch southeast with the best banding but still okay for the forum. A compromise solution seems to be emerging.

I was going to say a bit more of a hybrid. Certainly not a traditional Miller B in the way that we think of it around these parts but you may be right technically. I'm not entirely clear on the exact criteria for categorizing such things.

FWIW, the FV3 at range also spits out a preferred coastal track.

BIG changes.....