Mount Joy Snowman

Welp, I guess we can finally say it, "We got NAM'd!"

HRRR could make a grown man cry, snows through lunchtime on Monday.

An updated map from CTP.....

It really is. We're going to walk the dogs and kids. Nothing better than a beautiful day right before a snowstorm.

This seems like a fairly realistic and doable outcome, one that many of us would be happy with.

Struggle as he alluded to in his post, that being Harrisburg struggling to accumulate during the day with light rates and marginal temps, which I think is a completely fair take. The city can struggle in marginal events with its low-lying location and UHI effects, which is why I was careful to say "Harrisburg proper". I've worked there for 20 years and have seen it firsthand. Lord knows @canderson reminds us of it regularly haha. There is no doubt they could win with nice rates or in the overnight bands but therein lies the question, will they get them? I don't think anybody truly knows but completely agree 3-6" would be a nice event.

Yeah it seems like Harrisburg proper might struggle with this one. All depends on if any of the coastal bands reach out that far through the overnight.

We ride the RAP until it dies, for this day and all our days! Freedom!!! *whispers quietly that the RAP also shifted east*

AIGFS ticked the qpf field back to the east a bit as well.

The Canadian, for as inconsistent as it's been, has been quite consistent in not wanting to bring much snow to our area.

That's the big question. How many times have we seen significant shifts in the final 24 hours. If you look across the 12z suite thus far you can see a slight eastward shift, even in some of the lesser talked about models. Hope this isn't the start of the rug being pulled.

The GFS is looking slightly to significantly east to me. Aye.

I think the trepidation some of the more mainstream outlets have in throwing out big totals is twofold: 1. The sharp cutoff with the coastal that we all see depicted across multiple models and has been discussed at length. 2. That whatever falls from dawn until late afternoon tomorrow may have trouble accumulating efficiently. If we have something like 1/4" per hour rates combined with surface temps a little above freezing it is going to be difficult to build much depth. There could be a fair amount of wasted qpf, and then we're back to eying the coastal impact come evening time and everything that comes with that (see #1 above). Just my two cents, but I think it's fair to do some hedging on some of the bigger totals we're seeing the models spit out. And this is to say nothing of the fact that a slight eastward shift could still be in the cards. Lots of uncertainty but that's what makes it all "fun", I think ha. I'm setting the bar at 6" for KMJS and letting the chips fall where they may.

ICON stays fairly east, FWIW.

NAM puts down 8" at MDT and 17" at LNS haha.

NAM still pouring down snow all through Monday morning.

NAM with another beautiful depiction. The stuff dreams are made of.

Low of 33 with .01" of rain. At this point, I'd just set the Over/Under at 6" for Lanc and call it a day. @ChescoWx looks to be in a great spot for this but man that coastal cutoff between him and, say @Jns2183, could be brutal.

It wouldn't be a proper storm if I didn't bring up the RAP haha. Behold!

Canadian is still drunk but also joins the shift-west club. Keep that westward movement coming.

GFS is again a monster and perhaps even more so towards Lanc but my goodness that cutoff....

ICON gets tucked and joins the party. Big changes and big totals.

The extreme cutoff many are worried about exemplified to the max on the FV3, with 20" in eastern Lancaster County and 5" in Etown.

NAM would be historic for southcentral NJ. I continue to believe my buddy in Hammonton is in the bullseye.

NAM looks phenomenal through 48.