Mount Joy Snowman

Inefficient accumulation here early on with temps waffling between 32 and 33 and a DP up to 30. Hoping we squeeze in a big thump sometime between 1-4pm.

There are three things in this world I can sit and stare at in perpetuity: a steady snowfall, a crackling fire, and two dogs wrestling. That’s it. That’s the list.

The CC is a must when searching for that sleet line.

Mulch and patio table have caved as rates gradually increase here. Beautiful scene. 32/28

First stray flakes have broken out here in west central Lancaster County as we sit at 32/27. Inner cylinder has been removed from the rain gauge. Let’s get it while we can!

Narrator: the observer was, in fact, not ready to go. I would gladly stroll up to MDT with my trusty 18 inch steel ruler but I’m a little hungover today, as evidenced by my silly 2am posting. Pap went a little too hard last night (a rare thing these days) and momma is giving me the side eye this morning ha.

Sitting at 26/21 here as I hit the hay. Let’s goooooo!!! G’night.

Gentlemen, with a couple toddlers this is as late as Ive been up in ages and yeah maybe Ive had a little whiskey, but I gotta tell ya, Ive got no damn clue which way this is gonna break down here. Just gonna enjoy whatever thump we receive and be happy for snow. Again, only guarantee is Lancaster is the tightest gradient haha. See ya’ll in the mornin!

It’s gonna be quite the ride down here. I’ve been beating the drum all week for Lancaster being ground zero on the mixing battle. Gradient should be impressive across the county. Could be 6” in Etown and a trace at the MD border.

Dare I say that looks like a pretty damn reasonable depiction ha.

Snow totals improved greatly for southern tier folk on 18z NAM....not entirely done yet in NE PA.....

Whoa big changes at Hr30. Low now sits in the middle of the Chesapeake and somehow all mixing is held at bay for the LSV. Much better but seems wonky.

At Hr24 18z NAM is very similar in evolution to 12z, although 540 line is down near the MD border which is a good bit lower than where it was at 12z. Good to see.

HRRR still basically a no-go for all of lancaster county, a slushy inch or two. I do think it may be getting ready to come around though. Think we see a different outcome by 0z or 6z.

18z HRRR seems to not be driving the Low so far north and is definitely trying to transfer to the coast earlier but still showing the same early mixing across most all of adams/york/lanc counties. Baby steps, perhaps.

Haven't seen the new map posted yet from CTP....

You did sir. You did. Don't worry, it will be back up in Lake Michigan by 0z tonight haha.

Man does it ever. Worlds better than 0z. Loooong way to go but love to see it.

Fair point and I don't disagree. Down here just hoping to see 2-3 hours of ripping snow before any changeover. Anything more than that is gravy.

Yep. It's the duration that's the main issue, not the rate of precip.

I am comparing to 0z, to which the totals are nearly identical. I don't have access to 6z.

Euro totals look similar to 0z. Very solid through most of central PA with the super tight gradient remaining over York/Lanc counties.

Nobody was acting like it was over for everyone. Absolutely no one. Just southern crew growing more skeptical as we approach the event and higher-res guidance starts to show the all-too-familiar and all-too-persistent warm air noses. We would LOVE to see it go the other way but are trying to stay grounded. I still expect 4-8" north and west of MDT and have said as much. Heck, I just told all my friends that I'm setting the over/under for down here in Hempfield at 2.5", so it's not like I'm expecting a full skunking. I think we see a couple hours of thump and will be thrilled for those in the bigger money. It's all good.

Yeah that one's gonna be a doozy.

GFS is one of our better outcomes for down this way but also probably not our best tool at this point for detecting the minutia, unfortunately.