Mount Joy Snowman

I’m at 31 with freezing rain and what sounds like some ice pellets mixing in as I lie here in bed. Not expecting much impact come mid morning. Good night all and good luck to those to the north and west. Zzzzzzzzzz

I hit 39 today. Currently at 38/20. National high of 90 at Plant City, FL and low of -45 at Seagull Lake, MN. Impressive range of 135 degrees.

Even my less-than-enamored forecast of the last few days may prove to be too optimistic.

Been pouring over the skew-T's here this morning and I'm still going with a minimal type impact event for those of us along the southern tier. The temp profile is still very marginal and basically all layers that matter are at or above freezing by daybreak. I also think the the late night dry-slotting is a real thing, as a couple of hi-res models have been showing. Things will obviously be a bit worse for those above, say, Peters Mountain (shout out to @mahantango#1) and I actually think areas around @Atomixwx see the worst of the icing, but down here, meh, just stay off the roads around daybreak and things should improve pretty quickly by mid morning. Cheers to those in the money!

A very impressive frontal boundary.

Topped out at 67 here, now down to 52. Amazing gradient today with a 45 degree difference between parts of NW PA and the Philly area.

I'm at 66 but expect to pop in the upper 60s within the next 1-2 hours. Are you in downtown Mount Joy? Yes, that's me entering stalker mode again haha.

Bring 'em back down!

Overnight temp of 60 and total rain of .13". My thoughts on the upcoming event: I don't see this as an overly impactful event for those of us in the LSV. The Low to our west is a little too high and tight and the High above us trickles east just a smidge too much, all without a truly arctic airmass in place There is a deep warm layer centered around 800mb, on the back of strong S to SW flow, that is only going to get deeper and warmer as the event progresses. Despite tomorrow turning nice and cool, marginal surface temps just below freezing and recent warming could make accumulation of whatever falls tricky. The short-term models are also starting to pick up on the presence of a pretty significant dry slot over much of central PA late Thursday night, which ironically enough, could help with the ice accretion as drizzle would be more likely to accrete than a more moderate rain in a marginal temp environment. All in all, I see at best a trace of wet snow at the onset followed by a brief period of sleet and then an extended period of freezing rain/drizzle. Whether the roads get dicey at all may depend on whether we can get a layer of sleet to coat them first, as others have mentioned. I think things soften up by midday and outside of the early morning time period, don't see too may issues. The obvious caveat is that CAD can often overperform so we'll have to keep an eye out for that but I'm just not really seeing it with this setup. I think the more serious impacts will be confined to the more northern areas of the forum. I am absolutely not buying some of the more extreme freezing rain outcomes being depicted on some of the models (shocking I know) and think anything approaching a quarter inch would be big for our area. I should also add that the only meaningful snow I see falling is in extreme northeastern PA. In short, warm air wins again. As always, I would love to be wrong.

Very nice! Sounds like you're an A-list cruise aficionado. I haven't yet been to Bermuda.

Easy fellas, easy haha. Not sure how I've managed to paint myself as the resident board stalker but I guess I'll own it. If it's a stalker you want, it's a stalker you'll get! I'm coming to all ya'alls stomping grounds and raising cain! But seriously @pasnownut you'll have a blast. My first cruise ever way back when I was 17 was with Royal Caribbean. They do a great job. There's never a bad time for a cruise. It may be your first but I doubt it will be your last. Cheers mate!

You'll have a blast. If you don't mind me asking, where are you going and which cruise line are you using?

Bahahhaha touche my friend, touche.

Speaking of which, don’t think you answered my post from yesterday afternoon (see below). Thought maybe you just missed it. Answer me now damnit! “Did you happen to see a guy in all penn state gear walking a labradoodle and an eight-month pregnant wife pushing a stroller with a baby in it? We were on the part by Chickies Rock from about 2-3pm. Looks like I’m topping out at 39 here.”

Did you happen to see a guy in all penn state gear walking a labradoodle and an eight-month pregnant wife pushing a stroller with a baby in it? We were on the part by Chickies Rock from about 2-3pm. Looks like I’m topping out at 39 here.

That’s awesome. Whatever you’re doing is working if you’re getting results like that. Well done lad, well done.

My buddy’s anemometer above his roof that I referenced earlier is probably at least ten meters but it’s still in the midst of a very hilly development packed with other houses, so friction is still an issue. It’s just so damn hard to get good wind readings. The airports are really the only places I go to for those since they are well sited for it.

This is typical of home stations. Just never able to site them in a location that gets good exposure for wind, too much surface friction everywhere. The best I’ve seen is my buddy who installed his about six feet above his roof haha, and even with that yesterday was the first 40mph gust he has recorded in the year it has been up.

Low of 14 here. Looks like the highest wind gust yesterday in CTP land was 56mph somewhere along I70 in Fulton County. End of next week certainly looks intriguing.

Negative friend. It’s still February so I’ll take any and all winter weather I can get — no matter the type or amount. I love my golf but it can wait a month or two yet. I understand your career lends you a different perspective.

Wife and I were driving around Etown area and they did noticeably better than us. I had nothing approaching .3”.

Wrapping up here, temp peaked at 41 right before the line then dropped to 31 as it passed. As expected, surface temps made for difficult accumulation down this way, just a dusting to a tenth. Winds are something though. Still an impressive little event for down around these parts.

Yep accurate. I actually believe parts of Lebanon into Berks may be even a bit deeper into the radar hole, if you will ha.

Low level lapse rates are off the charts. Bring it on.

It may be weakening a bit but remember don’t base that off radar, which can’t see the low squall clouds in our area. You have to use visible satellite which still looks strong. Incoming!