Mount Joy Snowman

Been studying the overnight runs and I think the writing is on the wall for us down here in the SE part of the LSV. This was mine and Training's and some other's fear all along. Just seen this movie too many times before with the strong coastal Low warming the mid-levels with ocean air when it gets ramped up. I think most of the Mesos will start to show copious mixing issues over the next 24-48 hours. Reducing our forecast for most of Lancaster to 1-3", and 2-4" for anyone SE of the Gettysburg-Harrisburg-Lebanon-Reading line. Although I do think this is one of those scenarios where Elizabethtown could do a good bit better than Lancaster City, with the most prolonged rain/snow/sleet battle setting up somewhere around NW Lancaster County. Also, marginal surface temps will make for less efficient accumulation (certainly less than 10:1), particularly when rates lighten up. Overall, a bit of a disappointment considering where things stood for most of the week but I'll still be happy to see snow and cheer on those in the money. As always, put me in Laporte ha.

This is true and a great point but I think that relates more to surface temps, whereas I fear this is the Euro sniffing out the warm layers aloft ahead of the other globals. Would not be at all surprised to see the Mesos start showing the same tomorrow. Really hope to be wrong.

This would not be great for the Lancaster crew and is exactly what MU has been hinting at with the warm air intrusion aloft. Or at least that’s what I assume is causing the paltry totals and not just the whole storm shifting north?

GFS is in a good spot but is such a swift mover it dampens totals a bit.... Edit: totals go up a wee bit more as snow showers linger through Sunday

I think it's catching up. This was a "better" solution than 6z. I expect it to come around by tomorrow.

Looks to be more north than 6z, primary over the TN/NC border.

12z NAM out to Hr60, minimal changes from 0z or 6z.

Low of 26 here. Lancaster continues to appear to be in a great spot for the upcoming storm, almost too good ha. I continue to like the idea of an area-wide 4-8”. Things are getting clearer. By 12z tomorrow we should be full-go.

My main takeaways/concerns for this event are as follows: The speed of the system. She's a mover. Not going to allow for huge totals. With the tightness of that Low track to our south, I continue to be concerned about some warm air intrusion for those of us along the southern tier. Typical for us, and I do think we'll overcome it for the most part, but always the fly in the ointment. The level of beer stock in my fridge -- too low. Overall though, very pleased to have what looks like a solid forum-wide event in the cards. I'm thinking 4-8" for most, with some 12" lollipops. Onward.

Been wanting to check that out for some time but it's only available to premium subscribers and I'm too cheap ha. You know it's funny, NOAA's NOW Data page shows 2023 and 2021 being tied with an annual mean temp of 56.7 but 2020 only being 56.6. I wonder where the discrepancy is coming in hmmmmmm. 2021 34.5 32.8 46.1 55.3 63.1 75.5 77.6 78.3 69.8 62.4 43.3 41.9 56.7 2023 39.7 40.8 43.0 57.0 61.5 70.3 78.5 75.5 69.2 59.0 44.7 41.1 56.7 2020 36.9 39.2 47.7 49.6 60.2 73.4 82.2 78.2 67.7 57.8 49.9 36.9 56.6

Low of 33 and .02” of rain. Starting to get that giddy feeling about this weekend, can feel it in my loins. I know I’m not alone.

Good luck but don’t get me started on the absurdity of them kicking off this game at 9pm on the eve of everyone returning to school and work. Simply ridiculous.

Oh boy, I go away for a minute and there are like 100 missed posts haha. I’ll take this time to remind everyone that we have a fun week ahead and not to live or die on every model run. Things will slowly come into focus. Also, I am MUCH more worried about warm air intrusion than I am anything to do with this sliding south of us. Lastly, @TimB I used to think you were alright and have tolerated your antics for a long time, but now I just think you’re a giant tool. Piss off. Now, let’s corral this puppy and get us some snow!

Looks like MDT finished the month with an average temp of 41.1 — 5.3 AN and good for 6th place all time. 56.7 for the year, tied with 2021 for warmest on record.

Held steady at 43 for most the day and now at 37 as we ring in the new year. Feeling good about the prospects ahead. Im drunk. Cheers to American Weather! Now lets get some snow!

The sun is kind of unique to us southern folk today…. https://x.com/muweather/status/1740786509970821145?s=46&t=yE0m3aiFgMNKsTcNdUT1uw

.85” of glorious H2O here.

Looks like about .9” here. Official measurement in the morning.

I’m sure @Itstrainingtime is just fine, and is relaxing and enjoying the holidays like most of us, while avoiding this sh$t storm of a thread. No, I cannot verify any of that but I think it’s a safe bet ha.

44 here with .19” of rain thus far.

You called? Well, I’m on vacation all next week and like any good desk jockey this is the type of thing I would do during work time haha. But I just did some top of the head mathing for ya and there’s no doubt MDT ends up well above 2.5 AN. Average temp will probably end up comfortably north of 41. I’ll say we end up somewhere between 4th and 6th place for warmest December all time. Caveat being that I haven’t done my normal hard calculations on this. Now, back to the nog. Merry Christmas all and enough with all the infighting!

Haha I was thinking that same thing just a little while ago. The rare daily double!

You're a man after my own heart Bubbs. Great little statistical lesson here, in that whenever the mean greatly veers from the median you will have a skewed distribution. The income example you gave is the most classic example of a skew-right distribution. A classic skew-left distribution would be age of death. Not everything is a normal bell curve, as lovely as that would be ha. I'm surprised the ensembles don't drop the extreme outliers, to avoid such undue influence, which is something that is often done in real world statistics. That, or use something like the interquartile range as a baseline from which to draw the mean. Go ahead and add this to my list of mathematical weather gripes, to go along with how we calculate the daily average temp. Busted pretty high here overnight, with a low of only 33.

Hmmmmm I dropped to 28 and most of the WU stations immediately around me went even lower. Interesting. Just checking out the satellite loop and it looks like a wee bit of cloud cover may have snuck over your area when peak radiational cooling would have been occurring early this morning. Could be the culprit??

National high of only 79 near Glamis, CA. National low in West Virginia of all places (-3 at Canaan Valley, WV).