Mount Joy Snowman

Only a sith deals in absolutes

I went up above 34 for a bit and assumed it would only go up from there. Interesting.

I wasn’t expecting this but my temp has been dropping and is back down to 32.

Glad to hear. It was dicey there for a while.

As for all the Bastardi debate, which I feel like we get into a couple times a year haha, I think the guy is mostly fine if not a little cringy. Yes he gets a little gung ho and yes he has some know biases but he’s not wrong THAT much more than anyone else in this crazy field. I mean heck, just today I had loads of people texting me how crappy their local forecasters are and how they only heard we were supposed to get at most a coating. I explained most reputable sources had 1-2” but all it takes is one bad forecast. Then you hear the “if only I could be wrong as often at my job” and yada yada. Point being, it’s a brutal field where even the best get it horribly wrong at times. JB may not be one of the best anymore for day to day forecasting but he absolutely has an unprecedented knowledge of historical storms and an uncanny ability for pattern recognition. I’ve seen him in conferences before and his recall ability is second to none. Accept him for what he is and throw him onto the pile of people all trying to figure this stuff out. It’s just one more source to consider. I personally don’t use him much anymore but I’m fine with others posting his thoughts. The more the merrier. I’ve said too much. Carry on.

I just changed to sleet as well. 1.8” final tally. Temp at 33. Fun while it lasted. At least we got to see some heavy rates and big flakes, always a win!

Just got home. Roads are garbage. Heavy snow at the moment and pushing 1.5”. Temp stuck at 32.

I have the tots at swim lessons while watching the steady snow fall out the windows. Beautiful scene. Would love to squeeze out 2” before the changeover.

Usually means the changeover is coming. I’m down to 32 with moderate snow and a tenth of an inch on the ground.

What time is your event? This seems to be trending towards an overperformer.

Very light has commenced here in west central Lancaster County. Let’s have some fun before the rain comes.

I know. I told my wife to make sure all her decorations are secure on the front porch. This could be real deal.

Low of 27. Currently sitting at 30/21 as the atmosphere moistens overhead. Excited to see who can catch a quick thump today. As for next week, my goodness just give me the Euro/CMC combo and let’s call it a day. Yahtzee!

There have been a LOT of meso runs that continue to pinpoint @Voyager's area for a local maxima (to steal @Itstrainingtime's new favorite word ha).

That's fine, get it out of your system now. We're going to need full locked-in Nut for next week haha.

That 6pm timeframe is right about the time we should be transitioning to plain rain. You'll just have to play it by ear. Not what you want to hear, I know.

Oh yes it was you and I who were discussing the roadways. For some reason Canderson came to mind, I guess because of his gathering ha. I could see it going either way with respect to the roads tomorrow. Tough call. Be safe pal! Hey, at least she's heading south. Should be fine down that way. Now as for the first part of the journey......... Mother Nature is determined to not let you have this thing. Just accept your fate and bow before the weather gods haha.

Hey @canderson MU tweeted this so I guess he sees things differently than us for tomorrow haha. Good luck with your gathering! "Travel conditions will likely be treacherous tomorrow afternoon. Tires cannot gain proper traction on roadways covered by snow, sleet or ice. If you must drive, reduce speed and increase following distance. The best bet is to just stay inside and off the roads between 11 AM-8 PM."

Throwing all this into that antecedent cold airmass would work just fine, to put it mildly.

I take it all in. All of it ha. Then just try and come up with a very broad high-level view of what's most likely to happen and go with that, while hedging a bit to known biases or extremes. A blended model approach is usually a solid way to go.

Thanks, makes sense that Kuch would be a little better. I only have access to 10:1 for the Ukie, should have known to add on a couple inches.

Ukie with a nice coastal track that gives like 6-8" to us easterners and drops off as you head NW to about 3" around State College. Biggest totals of a foot around coastal NJ and DE. Still has room to be pulled in. A nice result.

You're not wrong. I thought the same while viewing. There was potential for more but I guess that's a good thing?? And yes, it did bomb out pretty good once it gained some latitude, as we so often see. Bottom line, big east coast snowstorm is in the pipeline and that alone is worth some measured excitement.

Canadian is a bomb, an absolute 'beaut. For viewing enjoyment only.....

GFS will slide juuuuuust to our southeast for the midweek storm. A very near miss.