Mount Joy Snowman

Low of 28 and I can see from my train seat that it is currently lightly snowing in Elizabethtown as we make our stop.

Not sure how many of you followed him, and you may already be aware, but John Dee has passed away. He is the guy who ran a weather website from his home on the Keeweenaw Peninsula with just incredible snow stories. It's a great site with an active community. I would only occasionally check it and I believe he recently moved off of the Keeweenaw but still cool. Anyway, his daughter posted a recent journal entry. Very sad. Not sure what will become of the site but apparently they plan to keep it going. R.I.P. fellow weather nut.

Morning, all. Low of 28 and would you look at that......some stray flurries flying from the sky. #winning I've been thinking all along with this frontal passage on Sunday that some people would see some sleet/snow on the backend as the cold air rushes in, particularly the northerners. Pretty typical with these setups. Nice to see it showing up on some models. Edit: Actually much more than scattered flurries here now. Beautiful flakes. Interesting look to the radar too, with it filling in nicely. Obviously won't accumulate to anything but more than I expected and the kids are excited ha.

Here’s the thing Voyager, you have to do what’s best for YOU. You have already made a deep sacrifice for your mother and I’m sure she’s eternally grateful, but you don’t owe to her giving up the rest of the entirety of your life in perpetuity. Your kids and grandkids deserve you. Your wife, who you made a lifelong commitment to, deserves you. Your pets deserve you. YOU deserve you. We only get one brief shot at this life; make the most of it. Good luck mate.

Item of note: I only recorded three days with measurable precipitation in November, my lowest such total since I started keeping detailed records in 2011.

High of 52 here yesterday and a low of 41 overnight, with .49" of total rainfall.

A saw that, quite the disparity. I assume MDT never broke out of the clouds? Whereas we had some peaks of sun early on down this way. I’m stuck at 49 as well, with a little over a third of an inch. Yuck indeed.

Oh, hello winter thread, MJS reporting for duty. Low of 42 with .18” of rain. Currently under dense fog with visibility <1/8 mile. Should turn into a decent day though. Taking the kids to an outdoor Winterfest to see Santa. I see 300+ hour GFS maps are being thrown about, which can only mean one thing, Winter has arrived!

44.7 confirmed. Rainfall about a half inch below average at 2.49”. Heating degree days almost spot on at 602, compared to an average of 605. A pretty dang normal month, just a bit on the dry side like most of this year. Some scattered rain on the way for much of this weekend though.

It looks like today’s average temp at MDT should come in at 38.5, which should knock another couple tenths off and bring us to a final monthly mean of 44.7, or .2 BN. Slightly higher than the 44.5 I predicted ten days ago. I promise to be better

I did drop another degree early this morning for a low of 20. High of 35 here today. Impressive cold. The climb back starts tomorrow.

21 when I left the house but wouldn't be shocked if I dropped another degree or two. Seems like most everyone was around 20 but unfortunately MDT only dipped to 25, gonna screw up my monthly prediction haha. I should know by now, always err on the high side when it comes to predicting MDT temps ugh. Looks like the hot spots off Lake Erie got around a foot and a couple feet for the Tug Hill Plateau. Nice way to get the season ramped up for them. This really caught my eye: national low under 80, only 78 at Phoenix and Catalina Foothills, AZ (not to be confused with the Catalina wine mixer). Low of -32 at....yep, Peter Sinks. Feeling pretty confident that the first half of December, and perhaps beyond, comes in pretty solidly on the warm side. Hopefully the forecasts of a backloaded winter are on point. We shall see. #StayingPositive

My buddy created a snow cam for his cabin up near the Tioga/Potter line. Good stuff.

To the bolded part above, you can't be serious?? Conspiracy theory much? If anything, many moons back when the NCEI did some clean-up of its data and monitoring sites, a disproportionate number of cooler weather and/or higher elevation sites were removed. Furthermore, hardly any official climate stations change their location (Harrisburg's history notwithstanding ha) and are far more likely to be impacted by build-up around the sites and increased UHI than they are anything to do with equipment changes and whatnot. I've been giving you the benefit of the doubt because I don't like seeing anyone banned or any posts disallowed, but c'mon guy. I'm a free speech absolutist but quit the trolling. Edit: Since it is not clear, I am referring to his statement "They do this all the time. Move the station to a cooler location to hide the incline. Change the equipment or time of observations to hide the incline. It's just not working anymore."

As you know, I have already guaranteed a final monthly temp of 44.5. In all seriousness, the period around T-giving came in a little warmer than forecasted, so I'm upping my prediction to 44.6-44.7. Waffling on which one to go with, but I'll say 44.6. Hoping Thursday doesn't bust too high. In any case, these next couple of days will do a number on the average, and you will get your BN. It has been decreed.

Low of 32 and walked through some decent flurries on the way to work here in Harrisburg. I echo the sentiments of others, in that I have absolutely no issue whatsoever with @ChescoWx posting in this forum. I mean, the guy usually posts once a day for crying out loud, in which he gives a nice concise forecast and summarizes his daily observations. No harm in that. You may quibble with him on his record keeping as it pertains to past comparisons, and that's fine, but the guy is harmless and sometimes posts useful data. The more the merrier, within reason ha. Oh yeah, national high was only 82 at Ochopee, FL. Of course, the low was at Peter Sinks, checking in with a cool -31.

I'm right between the two of ya at .48", with a low of 33.

Low of 27 here. Looks like a good number of snow showers should be across the northwestern tier in the coming days.

Thought the boys played very well last night. Obviously left some points on the field in the first half but overall a dominant performance against an admittedly shaky MSU team ha. This defense is just….whew boy, they come at you in waves.

Low of 24 here. Brisk. Currently 28 under a 1026 High.

I briefly clipped 53 but am with you now at 48.

Putting my feet to the fire; I like it! MJS performs best under pressure! *whispers* I'll stop talking in third person now Back to business. The last couple of days of the month are still pretty far out so tough to get an exact read on, but I'm going with temps a little cooler than what some of the long-range commercial forecasts are currently showing. All in all, I calculated a final nine-day average temp of 38.6, which would be good for a negative 2.5 degree departure off the current average temp of 47.0. Put it all together, and I'm predicting a final mean monthly temp of 44.5, a few tenths below the climate normal period average and a few tenths above the entire period of record average. Put simply, can't get much more of an average November than that. Book it.

Two things I took from this storm, with both being things we all agree on and hope to carry forward through the winter season, are that it was modeled extremely well and was a bit of an over-performer.

1.85” here but I have a feeling my automated gauge under-measured a bit. I bet my cylinder gauge captured more but I’ll never know because it got knocked over into my fire pit, presumably by a dog or a child. Why? Because my lazy ass still hasn’t found a permanent home on which to affix it. So, into the books goes 1.85”.

Add me to the confirmation list. Went out for lunch with the fellas and was colder and just generally more miserable than I expected. What did they say our high should be today, because man it sure doesn't feel like we're getting there. Although I guess this is one of those scenarios where the temp rises after sundown due to WAA being more potent than diurnal drops.