Mount Joy Snowman

Heights look a weeeee bit lower on GFS through Hr54 compared to 6z. Could come in a smidge colder.

I've had similar experience with razor's edge events out my way. My old house sat at ~350' but I could drive a half mile up Chickies Ridge to 600' and see white. It's amazing what a little elevation can do in marginal events, which is why I'm thrilled to now sit ~480' haha.

Thanks Davis, apologies for referring to you as "that other fella" haha. We've had a good number of new people around here lately and can be hard to keep track at times.

Indeed you are. If I'm not mistaken you guys have a bit of elevation around your area that may help, no? Either you or that other fella reside up near 800'? I assume that varies quite a bit from the town of Hanover? I'm not overly familiar with that area. I have a ridge directly behind my house that gets to 600-700' in spots but I only sit part way up it at a little under 500'.

This is from 6z but the wind field associated with the LLJ paints almost a perfect picture of where I think that mix line could set up most stubbornly Saturday evening as the southeasterlies get cranking......

Mostly holds but gets tighter around the edges with the mix line. Keeps encroaching a wee bit for those of us in Lanc. Could be a tight one down this way. But then again, when is it not ha.

The FV3 (a model I have little faith in) has virtually no snow for York/Lanc counties. The 3k NAM is solid. Lancaster crew, what do we make of WGAL having the entirety of York and Lanc counties with basically a Trace to an inch or two? I know they use their own "predictor" model.

It so often sets up there and has been hinted at by lots of guidance. That little bit of elevation around Etown helps define it as well.

Correct. Gonna be brief. Hopefully she comes hard and fast to help overcome any and all thermal issues. Could be a fun little afternoon if we keep expectations low.

At 10pm mixing has shot up through Schuylkill County as precip starts to dry up. 1002 well off MD/DE coast. A couple to perhaps a few inches for most of Lanc/York. Everyone else ~ 6 per Kuchera.

Mixing line begins to infiltrate most of york and lanc counties by 7pm with skew-T showing issues around 900mb. 1004 off coast of NC/VA border.

Moderate to heavy snow across almost all of PA at 4pm Sat with 540 line draped across N Lancaster Co. 1005 continues to climb off of NC coast.

At 18z Sat snow breaking out across most of southern half of PA as 1005 climbs the coast.

Transfers to coast at SN/NC border as a 1007.

NAM has 1006 Low directly over TN/NC border at 48.

Been studying the overnight runs and I think the writing is on the wall for us down here in the SE part of the LSV. This was mine and Training's and some other's fear all along. Just seen this movie too many times before with the strong coastal Low warming the mid-levels with ocean air when it gets ramped up. I think most of the Mesos will start to show copious mixing issues over the next 24-48 hours. Reducing our forecast for most of Lancaster to 1-3", and 2-4" for anyone SE of the Gettysburg-Harrisburg-Lebanon-Reading line. Although I do think this is one of those scenarios where Elizabethtown could do a good bit better than Lancaster City, with the most prolonged rain/snow/sleet battle setting up somewhere around NW Lancaster County. Also, marginal surface temps will make for less efficient accumulation (certainly less than 10:1), particularly when rates lighten up. Overall, a bit of a disappointment considering where things stood for most of the week but I'll still be happy to see snow and cheer on those in the money. As always, put me in Laporte ha.

This is true and a great point but I think that relates more to surface temps, whereas I fear this is the Euro sniffing out the warm layers aloft ahead of the other globals. Would not be at all surprised to see the Mesos start showing the same tomorrow. Really hope to be wrong.

This would not be great for the Lancaster crew and is exactly what MU has been hinting at with the warm air intrusion aloft. Or at least that’s what I assume is causing the paltry totals and not just the whole storm shifting north?

GFS is in a good spot but is such a swift mover it dampens totals a bit.... Edit: totals go up a wee bit more as snow showers linger through Sunday

I think it's catching up. This was a "better" solution than 6z. I expect it to come around by tomorrow.

Looks to be more north than 6z, primary over the TN/NC border.

12z NAM out to Hr60, minimal changes from 0z or 6z.

Low of 26 here. Lancaster continues to appear to be in a great spot for the upcoming storm, almost too good ha. I continue to like the idea of an area-wide 4-8”. Things are getting clearer. By 12z tomorrow we should be full-go.

My main takeaways/concerns for this event are as follows: The speed of the system. She's a mover. Not going to allow for huge totals. With the tightness of that Low track to our south, I continue to be concerned about some warm air intrusion for those of us along the southern tier. Typical for us, and I do think we'll overcome it for the most part, but always the fly in the ointment. The level of beer stock in my fridge -- too low. Overall though, very pleased to have what looks like a solid forum-wide event in the cards. I'm thinking 4-8" for most, with some 12" lollipops. Onward.

Been wanting to check that out for some time but it's only available to premium subscribers and I'm too cheap ha. You know it's funny, NOAA's NOW Data page shows 2023 and 2021 being tied with an annual mean temp of 56.7 but 2020 only being 56.6. I wonder where the discrepancy is coming in hmmmmmm. 2021 34.5 32.8 46.1 55.3 63.1 75.5 77.6 78.3 69.8 62.4 43.3 41.9 56.7 2023 39.7 40.8 43.0 57.0 61.5 70.3 78.5 75.5 69.2 59.0 44.7 41.1 56.7 2020 36.9 39.2 47.7 49.6 60.2 73.4 82.2 78.2 67.7 57.8 49.9 36.9 56.6