Mount Joy Snowman

Yeah some of the sites just do not do a good job of handling any non-snow forms of wintry precip when it comes to accumulation. Like not good at all.

I would really caution against 10:1 maps for most of the LSV. Even Kuchera may be a bit overdone.

Kuchera has pretty much all of York/Lanc ~2", with tight gradient of 3-6" across Dauphin. State College Altoona corridor big winner with 9". Let's see if it wants to develop anything for Sunday with the coastal.

At 7pm 1002 L off VA/NC coastline. Rain through all of Lancaster and much of Berks and points east. Again, more so than 6z. Still holding as snow for MDT and northwest.

By 4pm mixing has occurred through almost all of York/Lanc counties as 1001 Low sits near southeastern VA coastline. Mixing a little further north and more pronounced than 6z.

At 1pm primary 1003 Low now centered over central NC/VA border as it reaches for the coast. Snow breaking out across most of southcentral PA with maybe some light rain out in front for eastern areas. 540 placement very similar to 6z. Very minimal changes thus far.

NAM at Hr 24 minimal changes with 1003 Low near TN/NC border and 540 line in similar placement as 6z across southern PA.

I'm tempted to toss the HRRR, as it is REALLY struggling with Low placement and now has sleet all the way through the Poconos and into the Catskills by 9pm haha. NAM is off and running......

By 6pm the mixing line has shot all the way up through Northumberland County, but again, it still has the primary Low in WV. Could be something. Could be nothing.

Mixing abound on the HRRR across all the LSV southern tier counties, but as Bubbler mentioned it seems to be really struggling with the Low placement. It's not alone in that regard ha. Either way, you can't feel great sitting in York or Lancaster at this point.

I've really liked the performance of the RRFS since its inception. Always feel it has a more realistic look to its simulated radar. I check it quite often. It's the one meso that gave me hope overnight ha.

Low of 19 here last night. Always nice to bust low by a good bit. Great radiational cooling. As for the storm, welp, after studying the overnights, can't say I share the optimism of others, at least for points south and east of Harrisburg. In aggregate, the Mesos are virtually all misses for us southern folk and that's who I'm putting more stock in at this point. This would also align with the meager totals being spit out by some of the local television station predictors. Also, as others have mentioned, if this does indeed end up being more of a Miller-B type event and the primary drives that far north and inland, well, for the globals to be in their supposed wheelhouse 2-4 days out and get that almost entirely wrong would just be.....poor. One thing is for sure, today's 12z runs are massive. But if I were a betting man, I'd think CTP lowers their map significantly for down this way. As always, hope to be wrong! Happy Friday all!

Don’t think for a second you’re getting out of this one! And on that note I’m going to bed. See y’all in the morning.

I think you’ll be fine on Sunday.

The 0z HRRR is picking up on major mixing across the southern tier counties very early in the storm. Would basically be a non-event for most of Lancaster County. It’s near the end of its range sooooo. But still a bit worrisome, as I’ve seen it sniff out thermal issues at range a number of times before. Hopefully wrong but food for thought. Aye.

I wouldn’t put too much stock in that. The grid forecasts can get wonky with how and when they update. Lord knows if you are rain by 4pm we’ve been basically skunked down here ha.

Yes I’ve seen them do that and like the attention to detail. Completely agree.

Some neighboring Offices for those interested.....looks to be pretty consistent....

The NAM definitely came in a little colder but the Kuchera map is about as paltry as we've seen for central PA. Not great.

Yeah up north they'll often split the counties (i.e. northern Centre vs southern Centre), not so much down here.

Yes sir. No doubt. As has been stated, we're gonna need rates down here. Big rates before the LLJ gets cranking off the ocean.

FWIW, and it's probably not much ha, but here is 18z HRRR at the end of its run at 1pm Saturday.....

No York or Lancaster. Thinking an advisory for us. Fitting.

Home. West Hempfield.

Well would you look at that, a nice graupel shower moving through here right now. Love it!