Mount Joy Snowman

3k and 12k are still world's apart with southern totals. Again, how much white rain falls? Elevation, as always, will help tremendously.

NAM is rock steady. A wee bit colder which is good but very quick hitter. It's gonna be all about the THUMP. Got to get it while the gettin's good. Should be a fun few hours tomorrow morning.

Low of 34 here with .01" of rain. Could we be in for a proper NAM'ing here at 12z?

The 12z RAP has a similar look to the HRRR through the end of its run. Correct me if I'm wrong, because I wasn't following the models closely the last few days, but would this not be quite the early score for the NAM in leading the way?

Even if you cut these projected totals in half, which I would certainly recommend, we're still looking at an advisory type of event down this way. Impressive.

Yeah, for you the flip looks like it could happen as early as 2-3am.

Man, she's a quick hitter. Out of here within a few hours. But boy oh boy could it thump with those dynamics as depicted. Total damage......

Just a beautiful look at H24, with a 984 sitting right in the southern Chesapeake and dumping snow region-wide.

12z HRRR has the SLP further south than 6z through 18 hours, by a decent margin.

Well well well, things have gotten a bit interesting haven't they. I love being wrong ha. Been pouring through some guidance this morning and the one thing that seems clear for the southern tier is that all of our potential snowfall relies on the coastal developing in just the right manner such that it quickly crashes the column and provides for a few hour period of heavy snow right around the morning commute. How much is initially white rain and how efficiently it accumulates will be big X-factors, but I'll be a monkey's uncle if it doesn't look more likely than not at this point that we're going to get at least a couple inches of paste tomorrow. Got my eyes on this 12z suite. First up is the HRRR, running as we speak.

41 here with a couple hundredths of rain and one drunk fella. I’ll be all aboard come tomorrow morning’s shift. Still think this isn’t much of a storm for us down here but some models want to prove me wrong, which would be glorious. Cheers mates!

Low of 44 here. I have always believed this to be a true central to northern PA type event and expect even further shifts to the north. Would put the over/under at one inch down this way and would probably take the under. As always, hope to be wrong. Happy Super Bowl Sunday everyone!

I’m with ya brotha.

You summed up my position perfectly. I’m not expecting anything noteworthy (perhaps an inch or two if we get lucky) but still keeping a loose eye on the modeling in case things start to break more favorably as we get inside of 48 hours.

Low of 38 here. MDT busted quite low at 35. Between that and a high of only 57 yesterday, no records were even threatened. We’ll see what today brings.

One thing that's becoming clear for those of us here in the southern LSV, is that this is the ultimate thread the needle situation. Speed of the system, surface temps, potency and path of the Low.......all of it needs to be juuuuust right for us to get meaningful snowfall down this way. And even then, a wet snow falling onto a rain-soaked warm ground will not make for the most efficient accumulations. It can be done but it's definitely a Goldilocks situation. I think this is ultimately a storm for true central to northern PA. As always, hope to be wrong.

https://x.com/MUweather/status/1755994196190564408?s=20 Edit: I thought that would embed that actual tweet but nope. I know from my cell I can sometimes include the tweet. Whatever.....technology.

Canadian came in a little colder, a little further south, and packed a little more punch.

Indeed. However, the most gettable was today's 39 and that chance has already been lost by MDT dropping to a surprising 33 this morning. We have an outside shot of tomorrow's 45 and Sunday's 40 but I would lean towards neither record falling. The high's are probably more realistic at this point, and even those could be razor close.

MDT is also 61 for today; we'll be keeping a close eye on that. 62 is the record for tomorrow.

You are certainly not alone in that line of thinking. The Brands brothers are........something haha.

Haha I just assumed the Bubbler name was related to something else. Yeah, he shouldn't be cutting that much weight. It's unfortunate what some kids put themselves through to get into a lineup. I will say, things are MUCH better than they used to be, with weight descent guidelines more strictly enforced and some of the more egregious weight-cutting tactics being ostracized. Penn State and Iowa wrestle tonight on BTN for anyone interested in seeing the two premier college programs over the last coupe of decades. Although, PSU may beat them in a bad way tonight. Cael Sanderson just has a behemoth going there in State College. Alright, sorry for clogging up the thread with talk of a niche sport haha. Back to weather!

You a Boiling Springs fan? I thought you were in Waynesboro school district?

Indeed it is friend -- Hershey. Team dual championships going on today and tomorrow and the individual postseason gets going next weekend, culminating in the PIAA championships March 7-9 in the Giant Center. Let's go!

Low of 36 here. Intrigued to see these 12z runs today, as we march inside of 96 hours.