Mount Joy Snowman

Just had to come on here and say my wife and I watched episode 3 of the final season of Succession last night and wow!  Without giving anything away, that was some of the best television I have ever seen.  Powerful stuff.  The way in which they shot it and the dramatics and all of it…..just perfect. The show is so well done. @canderson I believe it was you who told me we were in for a treat when I mentioned a while back that we had started the series, and man it has not disappointed. Just great writing and screenplay and acting, all of it. Thoroughly impressed. 

Low of 33 and currently 35. 24-Hr QPF was .6”. Pleasantly surprised to still have a yard full of snow. Temp rise here has been much slower than forecasted. Now we prepare for some vicious winds ugh. Stinks to see the trends for the midweek storm. This one really stings given what all the models were showing just a couple of days ago, granted they were still a week out so big changes were expected. Not throwing in the towel yet, at all, but at the very least the big dog scenario seems to be mostly off the table. We’ll see what the next 24 hours bring but the trend most of the season has been for things to get shunted south and east. Fingers crossed for at least a light to moderate type overrunning event. Happy Sunday, all. 

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My contention is from being spoiled over the past 20-25 years. We used to average a double digit snowstorm about once a decade. They started to become commonplace to the point where they've become an unrealistic expectation.

THIS. People forget how rare this stuff is supposed to be. So many ways to fail, always and forever. 

17 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

It will not. 

 

Again, I'm not quoting myself. "It will snow where it has snowed." 

 

Until something in the atmosphere changes the storm track from MA-eastward, that is where the storm will track. 

Only a sith deals in absolutes 

23 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My temp hasn't risen or dropped since 3:30. Steady as she goes at 32.4

I went up above 34 for a bit and assumed it would only go up from there. Interesting. 

I wasn’t expecting this but my temp has been dropping and is back down to 32. 

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Everyone safely got to our event. And I assume hike since Todd’s are much better now than at 12:45.  
 

Storm next week seems destine for a southern mauler but hope these models are wrong and we get the goods too. 

Glad to hear. It was dicey there for a while. 

As for all the Bastardi debate, which I feel like we get into a couple times a year haha, I think the guy is mostly fine if not a little cringy. Yes he gets a little gung ho and yes he has some know biases but he’s not wrong THAT much more than anyone else in this crazy field. I mean heck, just today I had loads of people texting me how crappy their local forecasters are and how they only heard we were supposed to get at most a coating. I explained most reputable sources had 1-2” but all it takes is one bad forecast. Then you hear the “if only I could be wrong as often at my job” and yada yada. Point being, it’s a brutal field where even the best get it horribly wrong at times. JB may not be one of the best anymore for day to day forecasting but he absolutely has an unprecedented knowledge of historical storms and an uncanny ability for pattern recognition. I’ve seen him in conferences before and his recall ability is second to none. Accept him for what he is and throw him onto the pile of people all trying to figure this stuff out. It’s just one more source to consider. I personally don’t use him much anymore but I’m fine with others posting his thoughts. The more the merrier. I’ve said too much. Carry on. 

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Final total of 1.7" - mix of light sleet and rain. Temp up to 32.4

I just changed to sleet as well. 1.8” final tally. Temp at 33. Fun while it lasted. At least we got to see some heavy rates and big flakes, always a win!

Just got home. Roads are garbage. Heavy snow at the moment and pushing 1.5”. Temp stuck at 32. 

I have the tots at swim lessons while watching the steady snow fall out the windows. Beautiful scene. Would love to squeeze out 2” before the changeover. 

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Flakes can't get any bigger than they are now.

Usually means the changeover is coming. I’m down to 32 with moderate snow and a tenth of an inch on the ground. 

11 minutes ago, canderson said:

Mulch and side streets covered. That was quick. 

What time is your event? This seems to be trending towards an overperformer. 

Very light has commenced here in west central Lancaster County. Let’s have some fun before the rain comes. 

8 minutes ago, canderson said:

I’m scared for tomorrow afternoon and overnight. 

I know. I told my wife to make sure all her decorations are secure on the front porch. This could be real deal. 

Low of 27. Currently sitting at 30/21 as the atmosphere moistens overhead. Excited to see who can catch a quick thump today. As for next week, my goodness just give me the Euro/CMC combo and let’s call it a day. Yahtzee!

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

For tomorrow, 3K feel more in line with other meso's with 1-2" in the middle and Northern parks of the LSV.  12K as well.  12K moved the "fall line" for snow north about 1/2 county across the board due to dry slotting.   12K has a jackpot of 2-54" NE of Harrisburg closer to Accuchris and paweather.  

There have been a LOT of meso runs that continue to pinpoint @Voyager's area for a local maxima (to steal @Itstrainingtime's new favorite word ha).

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Guess I shoulda stuck w/ my colder than modeled for tomorrow. 

I jumped ship yesterday, so no "good call" for me.  Darn it.    

That's fine, get it out of your system now.  We're going to need full locked-in Nut for next week haha.

2 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

Ok can someone help me out please…I’m supposed to attend an event in Lancaster tomorrow from 6-9PM. I’ll be driving over from York. Will it just be rain by that point? Should I reconsider? 

That 6pm timeframe is right about the time we should be transitioning to plain rain.  You'll just have to play it by ear.  Not what you want to hear, I know.

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It was 29 here the last storm and roads were fine.  But like you said, heavy snow could change that...or heavy sleet. 

Oh yes it was you and I who were discussing the roadways.  For some reason Canderson came to mind, I guess because of his gathering ha.  I could see it going either way with respect to the roads tomorrow.  Tough call.  Be safe pal!

6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

just forwarded this to my kid who is going to DC tomorrow afternoon

Hey, at least she's heading south.  Should be fine down that way.  Now as for the first part of the journey.........

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Welp, we'll see how it goes lol 

Mother Nature is determined to not let you have this thing.  Just accept your fate and bow before the weather gods haha.

Hey @canderson MU tweeted this so I guess he sees things differently than us for tomorrow haha. Good luck with your gathering! 
 

"Travel conditions will likely be treacherous tomorrow afternoon. Tires cannot gain proper traction on roadways covered by snow, sleet or ice. If you must drive, reduce speed and increase following distance. The best bet is to just stay inside and off the roads between 11 AM-8 PM."

Throwing all this into that antecedent cold airmass would work just fine, to put it mildly.

1 minute ago, Festus said:

When it comes to forecasts, most locals I talk to or overhear usually cite output from WGAL or WHTM (and rarely, the NWS, sadly).  

I'm guessing most of our family, friends, coworkers, etc know we're weather weenies and look to us as "being in the know".  So when you provide the latest to them, what's your method?  Average the latest model runs in your head and customize a forecast?  Weight output from the NWS a little heavier?  A favorite source here or elsewhere?  Don't touch the subject with a ten foot pole?

 

I take it all in.  All of it ha.  Then just try and come up with a very broad high-level view of what's most likely to happen and go with that, while hedging a bit to known biases or extremes.  A blended model approach is usually a solid way to go.

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

Thanks, makes sense that Kuch would be a little better.  I only have access to 10:1 for the Ukie, should have known to add on a couple inches.

Ukie with a nice coastal track that gives like 6-8" to us easterners and drops off as you head NW to about 3" around State College.  Biggest totals of a foot around coastal NJ and DE.  Still has room to be pulled in.  A nice result.