Mount Joy Snowman

Low of 22. Decent transition weekend on tap. Happy Friday, all. 

It's been a day of constant on and off snow showers.  The last hour a couple of heavier bands rolled through, one of which created whiteout conditions.  Definitely .1" going in the books, with the potential for more depending on how the rest of the afternoon plays out.  This 500 closed low passage has made for a fun little day.

55 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

to add to a workable pattern, as wavelengths shorten and seasons begin to change, sometimes it can be the extra spark that is needed for late season lovin.

Gotta keep things close enough for that to happen...and it appears that were just that.  Close enough.  

Headed to the cabin tomorrow night to do a little snowmobiling w/ my son.  REALLY looking forward to it.  Northwoods are solidly white for those in need of a fix.

Heck yeah, have fun pal.  My buddy's cabin is looking great.  You guys are probably even better yet.

It's a flizzard here and I'll say it again, for the 97th time this season, yet another day that looks and feels like winter.

Low of 12.  Looks like most of us should see some flakes flying through the air today.  Someone could win out to the tune of an inch.  Likely westerners.  We shall see.

3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

@Itstrainingtime

I asked chat gpt to make picture of your masterpiece

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Haha that's amazing!  I wonder who it thinks the bikini-clad beer-drinking girl is?  We need her to come around more  

36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

What county is Dubois, PA the county seat of? 

None!  Clearfield is the county seat of Clearfield Co.  One of the great things about memorizing county seats is that so many of them have them same name as the county itself haha. 

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes! My claim to fame in school was being able to take a blank map of PA and accurately fill in all 67 counties. 

As someone who travels to Pittsburgh 1-2 times a year, since I started driving the trip today takes nearly an hour less than 40+ years ago. PA Turnpike speed limit used to be 55 the entire route, today a lot of it is 70 and what's not is mostly 65. 

It's so funny you said this.  I was just about to post how MY big claim to fame is being able to fill in all 67 PA counties on a blank map haha.  The guys at work didn't believe me and printed out a blank PA map for me to complete right on the spot and I scored a 100.  It hangs on my desk wall to this day.  I used to know all the county seats too.  Now, I'd probably miss a few.  So yeah, add me to the list of geography freaks ha.  We are a screwed-up bunch.

Here's a new one, Antelope Creek, ND came in with the national low of -45.  Who doesn't love Antelope Creek.  MDT had an impressive -13 degree departure yesterday. 

Low of 13. 

16 when I left the house, which was the low. Stunning sunrise this morning. 

Laurels look beautiful…

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Great story, are you sure Carl is not one of the older posters here? 

Wouldn't that be something haha.  But no, he didn't strike me as the type to have a message board account, but ya never know!

WARNING:  This will be a long post but given the mood of the board lately, I wanted to tell a little story that I hope you'll find as joyful and rewarding as I did experiencing it.

So, our neighborhood has an old guy who walks the neighborhood every day, many times a day, without fail.  He's the type of guy who knows everyone's kids, carries treats in his pockets for all the dogs, and gives his little two finger wave to everyone he sees.  His name is Carl and it's impossible to not, at the very least, know of him.  If there were a vote for neighborhood president Carl would win in a landslide.  We are relatively new to the development so I've only ever talked to Carl maybe 5-10 times and never really in-depth.

Well, yesterday I was out checking the mail in the cold rain and Carl comes walking by, because of course he does, that's what Carl does, no matter the weather.  I shout out to him, "Hey Carl, how about those winds coming?"  That simple comment led to Carl coming over and talking to me about the weather for a good 15-20 minutes.  Turns out he is a complete weather nut like us.  I had no idea.  He told me about all the old meteorologists and professors he loved to follow, most of whom I'd never heard of ha.  He had also been a big Bastardi guy for decades and was talking about how he just watched some video of him talking about the upcoming storm potential.  I quickly realized Carl was the real deal; he was one of us.  He went on and on about all the models by name and mentioned the SER, PNA, NAO, MJO, and any other weather acronym you could think of.  He knew them all.  We bonded over the fact that we both had rain gauges and weather stations and kept detailed records of our precipitation going back decades, his much longer than mine of course.  We talked about how our wives thought we were crazy but also how they constantly needed us for weather advice.  The more we talked the more his eyes lit up.  You could feel his sense of pure joy at having someone else to talk to who loved weather as much as him.  It was palpable.

We talked and talked and talked.  He thought the midweek storm was going to pull back west a bit and I told him I thought it would stay suppressed to our southeast, both of us giving a nod to the fact that in the end we had no clue where it would end up haha.  Weather led to other talk.  "Oh, you studied Statistics at Penn State?  I always had a bit of trouble with that when I was at Wharton."  Turns out he was a Penn guy.  "Oh, you tutored Stat too?  I always had a penchant for teaching others."  On and on we went, both of us just standing there in the cold rain and with no intention of the conversation ending.  He told me of some neighborhood gossip as only Carl can and then ended by saying something to the effect of, "You know, weather is what it's all about.  There's nothing greater, nothing more powerful or unpredictable.  It has an effect on everything we do and affects our most important moments.  Everything from D-Day to sporting events to weddings and funerals.  Most importantly, it humbles us."  

Finally, he smiled before giving an obligatory nod and saying "alright then" as he waved and walked away.  His gate was that of an old man.  You know the type, wobbling back'n'forth, probably from one too many injuries over the years or a replaced hip or maybe just too many miles.  It was the type of gate that just keeps on going, until one day it doesn't.  I hope to see a lot more of Carl in the future, lord knows he'll be around, and around, and around.  Moral of the story is this:  talk to your neighbors, find yourself a Carl.  You'll be better for it.  I promise.  And who knows, you may just find someone else who enjoys this crazy hobby as much as you do.  It hit me yesterday that weather means a lot more than just tracking storms or being angry when we miss out; it's what binds all of us.  I'm glad I got to meet the real Carl, and I think he was too.

Low of 27 with .37” of rain and lots of wind. This week is a big letdown for sure but as some others have mentioned it’s hard to call it a total bust when the models started honing in on the correct solution five days out — the very time period at which we are told to start paying real attention. I wish they were better from range too but they’re all we’ve got ha. Who knows, maybe the AI infusion will improve things. Glad to hear some westerners are getting in on the fun. Some of those streamers look great. Onward. 

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm holding strong through 12z tomorrow. Then I'll reassess.

Yep. Monday afternoon has always been my breaking point. Just need to see a little movement back towards us by then. If not, well, we’ll chalk it up as another in a long line of misses 5-7 days out. 

21 minutes ago, canderson said:

The blizzard ongoing west of Somerset must be absolutely wicked right now. Wish we had a poster there. 

Not a poster but here ya go pal…..looks to be getting wicked….

17 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I split my time between Cork and the new place, the High Dive. Most of my time isn't customer facing anymore. I come up with and make all the crazy infusions, fat washes, distillations, syrups, foams, and other things that we use for our cocktails. I basically have a whole chemistry lab in the basement of the high dive now. I love it. I also get to be home by 4-5 all but one day during the week and have weekends off. I also do most of the bar side financial analysis for the bar group that includes, the Millworks, watershed, cork, and high dive

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Good for you, that’s awesome. I remember you talking about High Dive, looks like a cool place. 

6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I just got myself a 4 pack of some new 9% double IPA from new trail and the first one went down like water. Whatever was wrong with me Thursday and Friday passed by Saturday. I also had to deal with 4 9/10 year old girls sleeping over last night for my daughter's birthday.

So far the wind has been way less than I dealt with last week, but I have a feeling overnight might be trouble. I just don't want to lose power

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You still working at Cork and Fork?

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yea. I am debating getting a medical marijuana card though to save my liver.  

There’s no need for a card 

12 minutes ago, canderson said:

I’m gonna get so drunk I pass out, otherwise I won’t sleep. It’s not smart but I’m of tomorrow so will deal with the consequences then. 

Is this your way of getting through the wind? Judge free zone my friend 

Wild weather indeed. We’re getting a bit of everything and more yet to come. The uncertainty breeds excitement. Gusts are ramping up here quickly. And oh yeah, tomorrow’s a holiday (I know not for some) so MJS is making orange crushes for he and the Mrs. Whoopsy. 

1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

Oh how quickly we forget the great nam coups of 2010/2016. It not only was on an island of its own, but it was unflinchingly until others caved less than 48 hours out. I think the Euro waited until less than 24 hours out to cave for the one storm. Hence why I'm waiting till Tuesday evening to give my verdict.

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Oh don’t I know it friend! I distinctly remember a number of events where the NAM led the way and we all pooh pooh’d it. Now, for every one of those there’s ten others where it’s off its rocker haha. But I’m not giving up either. There’s always a chance when 3+ days remain, no matter how small. 

Can the HH NAM lead us to victory for once?? Doubtful haha. Line just hit here, some T&L not far away, winds increasing. 

17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Very, very strange temperature phenomena ongoing here. At noon my reading was up to 43 and climbing steadily.

Now? It's 37!

I was actually just about to post how there isn’t any temp spike happening today and things are actually going in reverse. Some serious WAA fog on the advance, getting thick over here. Once that mixes out I assume we’ll spike a bit but nothing like what was projected. 

11 minutes ago, Ruin said:

my argument is they should be better shouldnt they? we have had the same problems with them being inaccurate and it feels as if they are not getting better. yes 1 model can catch onto a trend and be good for 3-4 -5 storms and its slightly more accurate then it shits the bed. yes with out models we would be worse off. but i think its funny how I dont attack any one on this forum and my argument is with the tech they use for weather being bad but then some on this forum just love to throw personal attacks. 

Of course the models “should” be better but they’re not, for a whole host of reasons.  Not the least of which is that it’s really F’ing hard to predict something that operates on as grand of a scale as the Earth’s atmosphere and translate that down to the local level. What we think of as vast distances just aren’t in the grand scheme of things and the resolutions and data ingestion of the models just isn’t granular enough to produce better results. With that said, they are still correct the vast majority of the time and it’s foolish to say they aren’t far better than they were many years ago. The main issue with you is that your penchant for negativity gets unduly rewarded in a field like this, simply because there are always FAR more ways to fail than to win with these big storms.  Don’t mistake your wins for some great insight; you’re just a glass half empty guy and that’s an easy role to find fulfilling in this hobby.