Mount Joy Snowman

Yeah Elk is in a great spot for this. But then again, Elk is often in a great spot for snow ha. The hidden gem of PA. I still haven’t made it there for a ski trip.

Not often you’re warmer than me. I briefly peaked at 51 earlier when the sun popped out for a hot minute but back down to 48 now under thick clouds.

This is all too true. Sadly.

Daytime high of 39 yesterday and overnight low of 29. I got .07" liquid yesterday and after obsessive amounts of research I am going with a snowfall of .6", which is more than fair. Could have been a bit more but it was all gone by the time I got home. I believe MU reported .8" and they are 5 miles to my southeast. Almost halfway to my 1.5" total from last year ha. To add to my angst about MDT (that's right I'm not done with those fools), a Middletown guy on Cocorahs reported .5" of snow on .07" liquid. Yet we get a T in the books. Nonsense. As for Sunday, I've always liked the idea of a backend changeover, just not sure how much stickage we'll get coming off a 60 degree day with a soaking wet ground. Should still be a fun little event though, particularly for the more northerly folks. Enjoy the weekend, all!

My hypothesis for that is, with CXY being on the west side of the river and MDT being on the east side, and the prevailing winds being westerly in nature, that the relatively warm late-autumn water has a slight but noticeable impact on the temps at MDT. The opposite effect would be true in spring. But I am certainly not above being skeptical of MDT’s accuracy either haha.

Forgive me gentlemen but I am about to go OFF! I promise you there was measurable snowfall at MDT today. Promise. I went right by the damn place at like 6:58am and there was already a solid tenth on all non-paved surfaces and it continued to snow for many hours for god’s sake. I understand temps weren’t ideal for accumulation but they werent’t terrible either. Not to mention this occurred during prime early morning hours for minimum solar. There is NO way a proper snow board being properly checked would’t have registered at least a tenth or two, conservatively. MJS will not stand for this blasphemous record keeping!

That would be nice. I checked some of the Penndot traffic cams along Routes 30 and 283 down my way and it looked to really be coming down.

I'm not home to measure but that's what I'm thinking for an early call too. There's actually a nice band over western LancCo as we speak.

Yep, from Mount Joy to Harrisburg. Been doing it for 17 years. Love it. Although, since Covid it's only been twice a week. We go right along the river for a good portion of it and right by MDT. If MDT tries to say they had only a Trace I'm having someone's ass ha. There was at least .1" when I went by and that was at 7am when things were just ramping up. My wife has been sending me pics from home (no, not those kind) and this will definitely be going in the books for me as the first measurable event of the year.

Low of 28 and I can see from my train seat that it is currently lightly snowing in Elizabethtown as we make our stop.

Not sure how many of you followed him, and you may already be aware, but John Dee has passed away. He is the guy who ran a weather website from his home on the Keeweenaw Peninsula with just incredible snow stories. It's a great site with an active community. I would only occasionally check it and I believe he recently moved off of the Keeweenaw but still cool. Anyway, his daughter posted a recent journal entry. Very sad. Not sure what will become of the site but apparently they plan to keep it going. R.I.P. fellow weather nut.

Morning, all. Low of 28 and would you look at that......some stray flurries flying from the sky. #winning I've been thinking all along with this frontal passage on Sunday that some people would see some sleet/snow on the backend as the cold air rushes in, particularly the northerners. Pretty typical with these setups. Nice to see it showing up on some models. Edit: Actually much more than scattered flurries here now. Beautiful flakes. Interesting look to the radar too, with it filling in nicely. Obviously won't accumulate to anything but more than I expected and the kids are excited ha.

Here’s the thing Voyager, you have to do what’s best for YOU. You have already made a deep sacrifice for your mother and I’m sure she’s eternally grateful, but you don’t owe to her giving up the rest of the entirety of your life in perpetuity. Your kids and grandkids deserve you. Your wife, who you made a lifelong commitment to, deserves you. Your pets deserve you. YOU deserve you. We only get one brief shot at this life; make the most of it. Good luck mate.

Item of note: I only recorded three days with measurable precipitation in November, my lowest such total since I started keeping detailed records in 2011.

High of 52 here yesterday and a low of 41 overnight, with .49" of total rainfall.

A saw that, quite the disparity. I assume MDT never broke out of the clouds? Whereas we had some peaks of sun early on down this way. I’m stuck at 49 as well, with a little over a third of an inch. Yuck indeed.

Oh, hello winter thread, MJS reporting for duty. Low of 42 with .18” of rain. Currently under dense fog with visibility <1/8 mile. Should turn into a decent day though. Taking the kids to an outdoor Winterfest to see Santa. I see 300+ hour GFS maps are being thrown about, which can only mean one thing, Winter has arrived!

44.7 confirmed. Rainfall about a half inch below average at 2.49”. Heating degree days almost spot on at 602, compared to an average of 605. A pretty dang normal month, just a bit on the dry side like most of this year. Some scattered rain on the way for much of this weekend though.

It looks like today’s average temp at MDT should come in at 38.5, which should knock another couple tenths off and bring us to a final monthly mean of 44.7, or .2 BN. Slightly higher than the 44.5 I predicted ten days ago. I promise to be better

I did drop another degree early this morning for a low of 20. High of 35 here today. Impressive cold. The climb back starts tomorrow.

21 when I left the house but wouldn't be shocked if I dropped another degree or two. Seems like most everyone was around 20 but unfortunately MDT only dipped to 25, gonna screw up my monthly prediction haha. I should know by now, always err on the high side when it comes to predicting MDT temps ugh. Looks like the hot spots off Lake Erie got around a foot and a couple feet for the Tug Hill Plateau. Nice way to get the season ramped up for them. This really caught my eye: national low under 80, only 78 at Phoenix and Catalina Foothills, AZ (not to be confused with the Catalina wine mixer). Low of -32 at....yep, Peter Sinks. Feeling pretty confident that the first half of December, and perhaps beyond, comes in pretty solidly on the warm side. Hopefully the forecasts of a backloaded winter are on point. We shall see. #StayingPositive

My buddy created a snow cam for his cabin up near the Tioga/Potter line. Good stuff.

To the bolded part above, you can't be serious?? Conspiracy theory much? If anything, many moons back when the NCEI did some clean-up of its data and monitoring sites, a disproportionate number of cooler weather and/or higher elevation sites were removed. Furthermore, hardly any official climate stations change their location (Harrisburg's history notwithstanding ha) and are far more likely to be impacted by build-up around the sites and increased UHI than they are anything to do with equipment changes and whatnot. I've been giving you the benefit of the doubt because I don't like seeing anyone banned or any posts disallowed, but c'mon guy. I'm a free speech absolutist but quit the trolling. Edit: Since it is not clear, I am referring to his statement "They do this all the time. Move the station to a cooler location to hide the incline. Change the equipment or time of observations to hide the incline. It's just not working anymore."

As you know, I have already guaranteed a final monthly temp of 44.5. In all seriousness, the period around T-giving came in a little warmer than forecasted, so I'm upping my prediction to 44.6-44.7. Waffling on which one to go with, but I'll say 44.6. Hoping Thursday doesn't bust too high. In any case, these next couple of days will do a number on the average, and you will get your BN. It has been decreed.

Low of 32 and walked through some decent flurries on the way to work here in Harrisburg. I echo the sentiments of others, in that I have absolutely no issue whatsoever with @ChescoWx posting in this forum. I mean, the guy usually posts once a day for crying out loud, in which he gives a nice concise forecast and summarizes his daily observations. No harm in that. You may quibble with him on his record keeping as it pertains to past comparisons, and that's fine, but the guy is harmless and sometimes posts useful data. The more the merrier, within reason ha. Oh yeah, national high was only 82 at Ochopee, FL. Of course, the low was at Peter Sinks, checking in with a cool -31.