Mount Joy Snowman

Total of .04" yesterday from my one very brief mini afternoon pop-up. As expected, looks like the Williamsport area was the focus of the best action. As some others have stated, pretty wild seeing the lightning light up the sky from 60-80 miles away last night. Never ceases to amaze me how far lightning can reflect through the clouds in the night sky, "heat lightning" as some like to call it, which of course we weather nerds know is not a real thing. Looks like another shot for some severe today, albeit perhaps not quite as widespread.

haha I know it caught me off guard as well, seemed to dissipate as quickly as it formed.......Farmdale jackpot!

Oh yeah I gotchya.....sometimes I'm zoomed it too far to get the big picture as well, first day stuff haha..... Tell me about it brotha, I have a dew of 80 to go along with a temp of 90 for a heat index of 108! Think my dew may have spiked a touch from a mini pop-up cell that rolled over me earlier and dropped a few hundredths of an inch, just gnarly outside.....

Ha I do the same thing all the time, see the heights and no precip and wonder why temps don't align and then it hits me, aaaaahhhhhh surface winds, and sure enough...... Models have been keying on that, similar to last night, don't let your guard down when the sun goes down, particularly those up around the Lycoming Valley......

Yes, I believe the study concluded that as well, minor but provable downstream effects. Your intuition is on point yinzer. You aren't kidding, hard to find a lot of support for the LSV for today. It may by a @mahantango#1 special, or even more likely according to some of the Mesos is a Williamsport jackpot.

As the hot'n'muggies roll on, Mount Joy Snowman (yes I reserve the right to occasionally refer to myself in third person) has some random tidbits. For one, all is right with the world when the national high/low temps are dominated by Death Valley and Peter Sinks, as has been the case for much of the last couple weeks. By the way, 127 in Death Valley yesterday, yahtzee! Moving on to more local goodies....... LNS got 2" yesterday, nice. However, the big winner was Philly's Northeast Airport (KPNE), which recorded the top hourly rainfall total in its history (records back to 1948) yesterday, with 2.42" falling between the hours of 5 and 6pm, culminating with a daily total of 4.16". Another fun fact, which I am full of today, is that Selinsgrove was the only ASOS station to not record any rainfall yesterday. Poe Valley State Park got hit with a potent little microburst on Sunday, which you may read about here: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=CTP Here are my thoughts for today's severe potential. Note, these are totally NOT the thoughts of CTP as taken from their forecast discussion page.....carry on chaps..... Heating of moist, unstable air mass should lead to scattered convection by early this afternoon, focused primarily along the elevated heat source along the spine of the Appalachians. However, increasing large scale forcing ahead of a shortwave approaching from the Ohio Valley should lead to increasing coverage late in the day and into the evening hours. Latest HREF supports the highest POPs in vicinity of a weak warm front over the Middle Susq Valley, where pwats around 2 inches are progged. The high-pwat air, combined with moderate to high instability, should result in locally heavy downpours and the potential of localized flooding. The wettest members of the 00Z HREF indicate the potential of 2-3 inches in a few spots of the central mountains and Middle Susq Valley. Increasing winds aloft ahead of approaching shortwave will lead to respectable deep layer shear late in the day and evening, supporting a few supercells and even the chance of a tornado, where low level shear is enhanced near warm front over the Susq Valley. The highest HREF UH and greatest mesocyclone potential lie across the Middle Susq Valley.

I actually have read a study on that (can't recall by whom or when) and indeed there is evidence that cities receive more prcip from convective elements than their surrounding locations, for precisely the reason you stated. The difference was not huge, perhaps something on the order of 5-10% more, but it was statistically significant. So your instincts were correct! This does not include yesterday but seems they are doing well....

Man was that lightning something, just nonstop and we had one strike right overhead that shook the house. The baby and the dog didn't care for that one haha. Well you doubled me up yet again, and by the way, for that same period since last Thursday and living just six miles to your east, I've received a grand total of 1.67", wow. #SummertimeConvection

Aaaahhhh okay now that I view it on google's street view I do recall that place. Where we turn off for my buddy's cabin is a couple miles past there in Watrous, head down Elk Run Road through the Marshlands and deep into the hinterlands from there.

Thank you Blizz haha. Sleep was decent but rain was only meh. I only caught the edge of that MCS and added around another quarter inch to my total from yesterday, bringing me to .55" for the day. I bet The Maytown Man did much better, as the heart of the complex seemed to pass more over him, and well, he just always does better than me ha. What did you end up with up there?

Yeah if I didn’t know any better I’d say that’s an MCS rolling through the area. Non stop lightning making it hard to sleep here during the witching hour. Should have some nice totals in the gauge come morning.

Yeah they definitely did better up there and towards Manheim. Of course the real show was down by Quarryville.

Not me, I’m right there with ya at around a quarter inch.

Yes very small, population of 298 at the 2010 census.

What a crazy day August 31, 2018 was, with many in the Mount Joy area seeing 8-10" in just a couple hours. I was in Mount Joy shopping and had gotten out of town just in time before the flooding got bad, lots of car rescues that day. My total from that day was only 4.45" ha. Man those cells in Solanco area are just dumping while barely moving, always a scary situation. Meanwhile, it's uncanny over here how closely I'm being missed again on all sides, sun back out.

Yeah was discussing August of 2018 with someone last week, how it's my rainiest month of all time with 17.79". I have missed out on absolutely everything so far today, swear some it may have just been the next farm field over. So close yet so far. Things are plenty windy and dark though.

It's 92 here with a dew of 77 and the sun's out, sooooo that's fun......don't see anyway we don't squeeze out some heavy rains from this atmosphere.....

It's also been consistent in keeping the bulk of the activity to later in the evening.

It speaks to the evolution of American basketball over the last decade plus, where there is more isolation ball and reliance on the three point shot. A team of connected players playing as a cohesive unit with sound fundamental team principles can pull off the occasional upset over the team of far superior athletes playing as individuals. We have seen this in college from time to time where a smaller mid major team has a group of senior starters that have been playing together for years and can outplay a more athletic group of one-and-dones from the power schools. NBA basketball in the 80s and 90s was wildly more entertaining that today's version, in my humble opinion.

Damn, to your point, I had no idea the US team lost to Nigeria until you mentioned it ha. I mean, it's just an exhibition but still, yikes.....

Never forget that here in Lancaster County we have Bird in Hand, Paradise, Intercourse, and Blue Ball all in a similar corridor in the heart of Amish country haha.

Stop talking dirty to me....

Pleasantly surprised to see .59" in the gauge this morning from some overnight action, nothing like what the Harrisburg area saw but I'll take it. After only getting ~1" for the prior month I matched that in the last three days; again, nothing like what some other areas saw but much needed nonetheless. Looks like a great chance later today for some people to cash in again. Summer rolls on.....

Only .06” over here. Familiar story haha.

Carlisle you’re a beast haha. Love it!