Mount Joy Snowman

Topped out at 47 today. Currently sitting at 37/25. Putting my “I’ll be happy with that” total at 2” for tomorrow morning. Good luck to all southerners!

Some disheartening reductions in tomorrow morning's snow on the 12z hi-res models.

Unusually stark differences in the NAM 12k versus 3k with regards to location of snowfall on Wednesday night. The southern edge of the 12k is damn near the northern edge of the 3k. A narrow swath indeed.

Yes this is me quoting myself ha. Anyway, in regards to the cold, I should add that those record-setting days to open the month seem like a long time ago now, as MDT is now nearly a full degree below normal for the month. Not bad considering those first two days were 19 and 17 degrees above average. Should only drop more from here as well. The cold came to play.

Some thoughts after studying the 0z slate.... A thread the needle type situation with the Wednesday night cold front sagging south. Probably looking at a very narrow swath of accumulating snow and with boundary layer temp issues at the onset impeding our ratios, not an overly impactful event in my eyes. Still, I think 1-3" is a good bet for many of the "southerners" in this forum. Weekend coastal looks to be the Euro versus everybody at this point. If the globals are going to start caving toward one another it should really be today or tonight where it shows up, as we're basically inside of four days at that point. We'll see if the king has still got it. I know many on here have been doubting its title recently, perhaps with good reason. The big story is the building cold, goodness that cold. The eastern US looks to lock into some arctic air for quite some time it would seem. You know how I'll sometimes post those national high/low temps for the Lower 48 and have mentioned how it's relatively rare for a national low to come from anywhere outside of the high-elevation west? Well, I think in the coming weeks we'll see more than our fair share of lows coming from the eastern half of the country. The only issue with that type of cold becomes suppression and lack of interaction with the southern stream. Could be high and dry for a while. Hopefully we'll be able to pop something. Maybe some clippers come to fruition? Only time will tell. Onward.

Yes, please.

A little late to the party here but I finished with 3.5” before the changeover occurred and 1.06” total liquid. Have about an inch of slop left in the yard. All in all it was a bit more than I was expecting so can’t complain. On to the next threat.

Flakes have commenced here.

I’m already at 24 ugh.

Good morning from beautiful West Hempfield Township in Lancaster County, where we’re just hoping to have some white left on the ground come Monday morning. Dropped to 4 last night but temp rising quick, up to 18 now. Haven’t followed much recently, as I was out celebrating the 40th Bday last night. Feeling a little rough this morning ha. Good luck to everyone’s snow chances and football teams today!

I like this line of thinking.

MU final call….

Haha this is likely true. I should also clarify I'm talking KLNS. Obviously there could well be significant differences between, say, south of Quarryville and up north of you towards the Lebanon line.

For my big winner, I'm sticking with my call from a few days ago -- Mt. Mitchell, NC. As for IMBY, I'll put the Over/Under for snowfall in Lancaster at 1.5". Sadly.

An underwater eruption no less. Tsunami warnings from CTP?? Low of 11 here. I’m ready to throw my hands up with this storm. We’ll get what we get but down here in the SE LSV the writing is on the wall for minimal accumulation before a very quick changeover. At least we have NFL playoffs to take our minds off of it. I’ll enjoy whatever happens. Good luck to all.

“You’ve never heard of the Millennium Falcon? It’s the ship that made the Kessel run in less than 12 parsecs.”

Correct, perspective needs maintained. But it does feel like things are slowly slipping away. Even so, keep the faith, I will *Yoda voice*

Unfortunately the NAM often sniffs out these thermal issues before some of the globals catch on. Now, it could be off on the track and evolution but I fear it may be leading the way here. Hope to be wrong.

850 advection says it all......

Yep, the dueling SLPs just can't get their act together early enough and consolidate near the coast. A really strange depiction that seems more and more likely to actually happen.

The 1am sounding tells the story, above freezing from ~800-950mb. Really hope the NAM is overdoing this and we can at least hold on a little longer.

By 10pm on the NAM the southern tier counties are already losing the column, with hardly any snow having fallen.

That looks like a pretty darn good map to these eyes. Love the attention to detail in regards to some of the higher terrain areas. Great job @MillvilleWx

Yes, within 48 hours would be more ideal, but it has sniffed out quite a few thigs over the years. I for one do not ignore it. Just another tool in the toolbox. Got it.

Yeah but there were always at least some areas of the forum that were slated to do very well (i.e. I99 corridor, north of I80, etc.), whereas the latest NAM services basically no one outside of the Erie region.