Mount Joy Snowman

Well, after analyzing the overnight runs all you can say is, what a mess. I still think the models are having a hard time with the evolution of this thing and have that jumpy look to them. Which is why I'm sticking with my coastal themed solution, even as, verbatim, model consensus seems to be shifting more towards the due north central PA runner. I just don't trust it, any of it. Need better sampling and a bit more time to work out the finer complexities. As others have mentioned, today and tonight's model runs are huge, and then I think tomorrow 12z is the king-maker.

Well would you like at that, I just found out Blizz is four years older than me. I officially enter my 40s this weekend. Cheers!

Haha that's great, cool little factoid. But why in the heck would they get rid of that site? A pain to maintain? I mean, why wouldn't weather weenies everywhere want an observation station at the highest point in the state??

You know, we really do need someone from the Laurels, preferably an individual who resides in a yurt on the peak of Mt. Davis.

Answer: She goes north. Although the snowfall is still quite robust. 'Tis one model run 4+ days out, gaggles of adjustments yet to sort out.

Where will she go next!?

Ukie holds with the coastal idea......

You bite your tongue!

Exactly, you can see slow but steady improvement. Apologies to our western PA friends for my use of the word "improvement" ha. As always, theses things are relative.

QPF for the storm, heaviest snow west of 11/15......

GFS still wants to plow straight north through central PA. I for one am not buying it, but it is a player on the field at this point.

Super clean panel here ha.....

National low yesterday was -25 at Knowls Corner, Maine. I only mention because it's relatively rare for it to come from anywhere other than the high-elevation west, and when it does happen in the northeast it's typically Mt. Washington.

Not claiming superior knowledge to you haha but I would say yes that's a distinct possibility, with the stronger system producing more powerful mid-level winds off the ocean and thus increasing the probability of warm layers capable of producing sleet. There are many caveats to this but short answer is yes it could have that effect here. However, I'd still prefer to roll the dice with a wound-up crusher.

Been studying the 0z suite. I like the evolution that is being shown on the Euro/Ukie, as well as various ensembles, for a more traditional Delmarva to Long Island type coastal storm. While a storm moving due north through central PA wouldn't be unprecedented, it would certainly be unusual. I think we'll see the models converge on the coastal solution, with your classic heavy totals across central and northeastern PA and some mixing issue across southeastern PA. A lot of time left in the game but this outcome makes the most sense to me. As for the pattern at-large, man do we have some nice cold and snow to play with over the coming weeks -- coastals, clippers, lake-effect machine, and everything in between. Let's have some fun with it, as patterns like this only come around so often. Winter has arrived boys and girls, now let's do the damn thang!

I topped out at 23 today. Currently at 15 with a DP of 3. Interesting days ahead it would seem.

Looks like the big winner on The Tug was 30" near Osceola.

I dropped to 14, not aware of any such snow shower here. I stayed up for the national championship game and didn't notice anything, and certainly no evidence of anything this morning. Good for you for "cashing in" haha. Looks to be a lot of cold air around in the weeks to come. Now we've just got to thread the needle with the storms, but I'll take the cold air in place and let the chips fall where they may.

A thing of beauty….

Yeah I think they have a legit shot against Tampa, not great but legit. The Bucs are a bit of a mess right now and I don't believe are the same team as last year. I would however note that since losing to the Giants the Eagles have beaten the Jets, Giants, and Redskins twice. Soooooo, kind of hard to know what to make of that haha. But they are certainly a live dog this weekend!

This is likely accurate, reality check incoming haha. But that's why they play the games!

Yep, something to be said about that level of consistency. Big Ben never presided over a season with a losing record, and he has a career 13-9 postseason record. This Packers fan can respect that. I think they are in for a beating at KC next weekend but there's nothing I would love more than to see one last bit of magic.

How about it!? I honestly couldn't believe some of what I was witnessing yesterday. What a day, and how the heck are both the Eagles and the Steelers in the playoffs?? Both teams loving that new 7th playoff spot haha.

Yeah it appears we were scoured out quickly around these parts.