Mount Joy Snowman

That looks like a pretty darn good map to these eyes. Love the attention to detail in regards to some of the higher terrain areas. Great job @MillvilleWx

Yes, within 48 hours would be more ideal, but it has sniffed out quite a few thigs over the years. I for one do not ignore it. Just another tool in the toolbox. Got it.

Yeah but there were always at least some areas of the forum that were slated to do very well (i.e. I99 corridor, north of I80, etc.), whereas the latest NAM services basically no one outside of the Erie region.

The 12z NAM, verbatim, would be an abject disaster for the entire forum, completely torched.

This is a fair expectation and yes, mixing almost always arrives earlier than modeled, and even before the radars shows it. How many times have we all seen the radar indicating the mix line at least 30 miles to our south and think we have a good bit of snow left, before hearing the pinging a mere three minutes later? Too many times to count.

Man, I'm having such a hard time with this storm, really one of the trickier evolutions I've ever seen. If you told any of us that there would be a coastal getting its act together around Savannah on a day where we start with temps damn near the single digits we'd all take that to the bank. Unfortunately, nothing about this is that clean. Too much latitude is gained by the dueling Lows and the merge pulls the coastal too far west, allowing for the mid-level thermals to be breached in many areas. Heck, we even have to worry about surface temps overnight, and again, this on what started as perhaps our coldest day of the year. But such is life when those easterlies get screaming off the ocean, nothing we all haven't seen many times before. In short, this looks like a classic PA slop storm for those of us in the SC/SE part of the state. We should do alright with the front end WAA thump but then messy after that. The I99 corridor should do very well with this one, congrats to all out that way. One last IMBY tidbit, Lancaster County has been consistently showing up as one of the places with the tightest gradient in snowfall amounts, could easily see places south of Quarryville with only a couple inches and Elizabethtown with 6+". Going to be one heck of an interesting storm to watch unfold and while it's not too late to see some easterly jogs in the trajectory, I think the writing is on the wall for most of us down here in the Maryland border counties. No complaints here though, will gladly take my snow/sleet/ice/rain cake and run. Now let's bring this sucker home!

The only thing I am comfortable predicting at this point is that Mt. Mitchell, NC will be a big winner with this storm. On to the Euro....

Well, after analyzing the overnight runs all you can say is, what a mess. I still think the models are having a hard time with the evolution of this thing and have that jumpy look to them. Which is why I'm sticking with my coastal themed solution, even as, verbatim, model consensus seems to be shifting more towards the due north central PA runner. I just don't trust it, any of it. Need better sampling and a bit more time to work out the finer complexities. As others have mentioned, today and tonight's model runs are huge, and then I think tomorrow 12z is the king-maker.

Well would you like at that, I just found out Blizz is four years older than me. I officially enter my 40s this weekend. Cheers!

Haha that's great, cool little factoid. But why in the heck would they get rid of that site? A pain to maintain? I mean, why wouldn't weather weenies everywhere want an observation station at the highest point in the state??

You know, we really do need someone from the Laurels, preferably an individual who resides in a yurt on the peak of Mt. Davis.

Answer: She goes north. Although the snowfall is still quite robust. 'Tis one model run 4+ days out, gaggles of adjustments yet to sort out.

Where will she go next!?

Ukie holds with the coastal idea......

You bite your tongue!

Exactly, you can see slow but steady improvement. Apologies to our western PA friends for my use of the word "improvement" ha. As always, theses things are relative.

QPF for the storm, heaviest snow west of 11/15......

GFS still wants to plow straight north through central PA. I for one am not buying it, but it is a player on the field at this point.

Super clean panel here ha.....

National low yesterday was -25 at Knowls Corner, Maine. I only mention because it's relatively rare for it to come from anywhere other than the high-elevation west, and when it does happen in the northeast it's typically Mt. Washington.

Not claiming superior knowledge to you haha but I would say yes that's a distinct possibility, with the stronger system producing more powerful mid-level winds off the ocean and thus increasing the probability of warm layers capable of producing sleet. There are many caveats to this but short answer is yes it could have that effect here. However, I'd still prefer to roll the dice with a wound-up crusher.

Been studying the 0z suite. I like the evolution that is being shown on the Euro/Ukie, as well as various ensembles, for a more traditional Delmarva to Long Island type coastal storm. While a storm moving due north through central PA wouldn't be unprecedented, it would certainly be unusual. I think we'll see the models converge on the coastal solution, with your classic heavy totals across central and northeastern PA and some mixing issue across southeastern PA. A lot of time left in the game but this outcome makes the most sense to me. As for the pattern at-large, man do we have some nice cold and snow to play with over the coming weeks -- coastals, clippers, lake-effect machine, and everything in between. Let's have some fun with it, as patterns like this only come around so often. Winter has arrived boys and girls, now let's do the damn thang!

I topped out at 23 today. Currently at 15 with a DP of 3. Interesting days ahead it would seem.

Looks like the big winner on The Tug was 30" near Osceola.