Mount Joy Snowman

I think most see 12-14:1 ratios with this event. Looking forward to the nice CAD sunday morning and then some more sustained cold. Winter is finally here.

Yes, the one and only thing.

Williamsport for the win! Thanks, and agreed.

Euro stays in line with the "couple to perhaps a few" inch theme for our area. Actually is slightly better than previous runs. I think we know what we're in for at this point folks. Nothing wrong with a widespread couple inches to whiten things up.

Hmmmmm wonder why it would be struggling to convert the precip to snow, since there aren't any temp issues throughout the column?? Is it just me or has the Ukie been struggling more than what it used to in the past? Always thought it was a pretty good model, at least for SLP locations and path and whatnot, perhaps not as much on the precip side?

The Ukie, for whatever it's worth, remains wildly unimpressed.

I could see this as a likely solution, with the exception of coverage being a bit overdone. West Virginia and northern MA coastal areas likely to do the best. Just a nice little winter storm, nothing too intense but makes for a pretty scene. The column has great temps throughout and looks decently saturated. I think we see solid ratios out of this and would not be at all surprised for must of the LSV to see a few inches, with a couple lollipops in the standard high hill locations and places like South Mountain. Another thing that keeps showing up on the short term models is the sped-up timing of this thing, with snow likely moving in tomorrow evening and being out of here long before most of us awaken on Friday. Should be a fun little event, just manage expectations accordingly.

CTP map seems to line up well with Mount Holly and Sterling.....

I dropped to 23 last night. Still liking an area-wide 2-4" for this event with a couple lollipops. CTP map and HWO.... .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Light snow accumulation may result in hazardous travel conditions Thursday evening into Friday morning. An icy mix may result in hazardous travel conditions on Sunday.

Yep, happy Perihelion! We are only about 3% closer to the sun today than during Aphelion.

A decent CAD signature consistently showing up for Sunday morning as well, should lead to some icing possibilities.

Euro is kind of meh. Taking the entire suite of guidance into consideration, I'm kind of leaning towards a scenario similar to yesterday with the heaviest totals just to our south, albeit not quite as extreme on the high end. The one crucial difference for us this time is that the column looks fairly saturated, so I don't think we'll have any of the dry air issues that plagued us last time. So in that sense, I do think most of the forum will see at least a couple inches. I'd call that a win, to say nothing of some northward nudging that could yet take place.

The PA border was a literal wall to the snow yesterday.

Yeah, I mean I know this isn't exactly a scientific explanation, but how many times have we seen these things happen in waves where the same areas got concentrated on during a multiple storm pattern? Some bonus material for ya......one of my uncles favorite quotes: "Sometimes me sits and thinks, and sometimes me just sits." Always loved that one haha.

RGEM wants to focus on the same areas that just got walloped with yesterday's storm, could certainly see that being the case.

Haha I mean it's not ideal but not bad either, plenty of time for shifting. I think the NAM is still struggling with the overall evolution and is a bit out of its range.

Not a bad look.....

Low of 18 here. I will be extra tuned into the 12z guidance today, as models should really be in their wheelhouse. I watched Ben last night as well, and like others, this Packers fan got a little misty eyed. This batch of QBs retiring hits me different because it feels like the last group that is even semi linked to my childhood, even though I had been years out of high school when someone like Ben was drafted ha. It still has the 'ol timer feel to it a bit, know what I mean? Anyway, people can discuss his legacy as they see fit but Pittsburgh having 18 straight years without a losing season, while no other team is even remotely close to that, is extraordinary and just a model of consistency. There's something to be said for that it today's world. Respect.

I stand corrected! 12 is indeed the number. I will now humbly eat my plate of crow.

So, just to elaborate on all of the above, as my numbers brain is off on a tangent today. Not to call @Bubbler86 out or anything but it was "only" 11 days last year that set a record for highest minimum temp, as the 12th was actually January 1, 2022. We'll give Bubbs a pass for his egregious error on this one Side note, there were four such records set in 2020. All this got me thinking ( a dangerous thing) and I decided to look at the total number of days this Millennium that we have broken records for traditional highs and lows. Forget all the min max and max min stuff for now ha. As it turns out, and to the surprise of no one, we have had more than twice as many daily high records set as we have daily lows since 2000, 78 to 34. Given our 22 year observation period and a 134 year POR, we would expect roughly 60 days of broken records a piece for each of highs and lows (120 total). So, we are actually underperforming more on the cold side than we are overperforming on the warm side. One final note, we are having a much harder time breaking daily records in the summer than in the winter, on both the high and low fronts. When it comes to lows, we have set 18 in the months of Nov thru Feb, just about what we'd expect to see. But in the months of June thru Sep we have set only 2 total! On the high side things aren't quite as disparate but still a significant difference, with 36 records set in the months of Nov thru Feb and only 18 in the months of June thru Sep. Perhaps that extra water vapor and higher dewpoints are increasing cloud cover in the summer, thereby preventing more cold nights and hotter days -- a belief I believe has been discussed here before. Food for thought.

Wow. Nice digging there. Doing some rough math here and considering a period of record ranging 134 years, if things were perfectly random, we would expect about 2.7 such records of each type (i.e. high, low, low high, and high low) to be broken per year. So yeah, 12 seems anomalously high.

I feel like the modeling was pretty good overall with this system. Side note, and I believe this was touched on previously, perhaps by @Bubbler86, but just a reminder that MDT set records for highest minimum temp on three consecutive days -- 43 on 12/30, 46 on 12/31, and 47 on 1/1. Finally, we seem to be getting into some more seasonably sustained weather.

A temp of 29 with a DP of 16 tells the story here. Atmosphere just never moistened up enough to allow flakes to reach the ground. #virga

Nary a flake here and a touch of pink sky to the north. Sneaky dry layers and dewpoint depressions were the name of the game with this one. On to late week.

Me thinks a lot of people in our neck of the woods are in for quite the virga storm.