TimB

That’s a good NAM run. Even at shittier 10:1 ratios, it’s still a foot.

It’s acceptable. Dry slots and shuts off kinda early because the low passes directly over us, but it’s good.

There is an important consideration regarding these totals. With the northward trend in guidance/warm air intrusion, a slight lowering of snow-to-liquid ratio is noted. Ratios may drop to between 10:1 and 15:1 from Pittsburgh on north, and potentially to the 8:1 range or so towards the Mason-Dixon Line. So, a wetter, heavier snow may be possible as compared to previous messaging. These lower ratios may ultimately cut down snow totals as well. We will continue to monitor these trends and adjust accordingly. However, there is fairly high confidence in Winter Storm Warning-level impacts across the forecast area, and an eventual upgrade is nearly certain. It still appears that the heaviest snow should be during the day Sunday, and then tapering off that night. Cold northwesterly flow and the crossing parent upper trough could result in lingering snow into Monday. If they’re putting this in the discussion already, I’m more than a little concerned.

NWS point and click is showing about 11”, for whatever that’s worth.

Icon held.

NAM

Sleet is up to about Bethel Park at 81, then we dry slot. Surface temps are still in the mid teens at that hour, so I’m not sure how badly we could actually mix.

NAM is going to be meh, isn’t it?

Those maps can only ever go out 72 hours.

I would expect to wake up to a winter storm watch unless the euro instills any doubts.

Canadian is warmer but fine. No mixing in the immediate area.

Most offices so far have done it 72 hours out for this one.

Assuming NWS hoists the watch as soon as the full 0z model suite is out, barring something crazy on the euro.

GFS looks fucking incredible.

Looks great but that cutoff is dangerously close.

What’s our bar on “anything less than this amount would be a disaster”? I’m thinking 8”, but I’d be tempted to go 6.

With these trends I’m starting to get nervous this goes the other direction and we mix to rain. Tale as old as time.

Doesn’t help that the iPhone weather app is also showing 15-18” of snow this weekend.

It’s on Reddit. I watch it from time to time.

On a lighter note, that was also the storm that gave us that snow shoveling dispute where that guy snuffed out his bullying psychopath neighbors in NE PA.

Looks like the line might kinda split those of us in or near the city. Oh well.

It’s official. First December on record that had 4 days with at least 3.5” of snow.

Squall line is warned now in Mercer/Venango/Butler etc.

Also enough to put us into the top 10 Decembers of all time.