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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    GFS still gets us to double digits.
  2. TimB
    That’s the other thing that’s a bit wonky about that run. The dry slot encompasses most of WV at hour 63, then is completely filled in on the next panel?
  3. TimB
    For there to be a winter part 2, there first has to be a winter part 1.
  4. TimB
    We all know how this ends. We’ve watched this movie many, many times.
  5. TimB
    I see what you did there.
  6. TimB
    Verbatim, PIT airport itself backs into a low-end warning event, but that’s ugly.
  7. TimB
    Whole thing is a bloodbath of zr.
  8. TimB
    That’s a (what’s the word I’m looking for here?) of mix.
  9. TimB
    As Pennsylvanians, we have quite the list of snowstorm disappointments, and with that said, that storm is the one that I hate to think about more than any other.
  10. TimB
    1/19/19? 2/15/21?
  11. TimB
    We’re guaranteed to move up to a tie for 3rd place on this list, but hopefully it ends Sunday:
  12. TimB
    I’ve been overall pretty impressed with the GFS’s ability to ferret things out this winter. We’ll see if it’s just as successful when it’s leading the charge for snow.
  13. TimB
    Those forecasts come directly from TWC, I believe, and they conveniently left out the “night” portions, which say 5-8 for Sunday night at this point.
  14. TimB
    It’s not a ton, but it’s enough to make people nervous who might get screwed by it.
  15. TimB
    That 4-9” on the winter storm watch is a bit worrisome - I was expecting/hoping for 6-12”. If anyone wouldn’t take totals in the higher end of the range they’d be crazy, but 4-5” would sting after being in such a good position for so long. I know the dry slotting and mixing probably won’t be nailed down until much closer to the event, but east solutions are still in play (GEFS ensemble is still not great and the Ukie shifted that way overnight).
  16. TimB
    NAM looks good. 8” at end of run.
  17. TimB
    This is going to look a lot like 18z, I suspect.
  18. TimB
    Yeah, how likely is it really that we’ll get those insane rates? If nothing else, the 18z runs so far can at least make it easier to take the NAM with a grain of salt.
  19. TimB
    RGEM is solid. 9” at PIT and still good rates through the end of the run. GFS still carrying a foot plus at PIT with 18” as close as HLG.
  20. TimB
    3k NAM is half of Alabama south at 60. Low center is on the gulf coast.
  21. TimB
    That’s an ugly run for everyone but Ohio.
  22. TimB
    18z NAM first sign of trouble? Or just too far out to be trusted yet?
  23. TimB
    Expect a dry slot even if this thing tracks favorably for us. It’s Pittsburgh.
  24. TimB
    EC largely held serve. Just a hair east.
  25. TimB
    Even so, mixing or not, I think I’d settle for the foot or so of snow that it gives us.
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