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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    So we’re tossing the NAM, right?
  2. TimB
    Gradient is a lot sharper across the metro. “Official” total would be a bit below a foot but many of us would see well over.
  3. TimB
    Well we do lose an inch or two off the 12z run, but still over a foot with 2” per hour rates between 3-6am Monday.
  4. TimB
    Ninja’d. Great minds think alike.
  5. TimB
    18z HRRR still looks good. 12” through 7am Monday.
  6. TimB
    It’s a positive sign that they haven’t put the possibility other p-types into the forecast, and that others like TWC haven’t added the “some mixed winter precipitation possible” wording. Using the 1/19/19 storm as an example, TWC carried mostly rain long before the NWS ever did.
  7. TimB
    12z RGEM was a sleetfest. That 12” total doesn’t seem to be mostly snow.
  8. TimB
    Yeah, sure as hell not expecting 22”. Mostly just observing where it has the deform band, which is here.
  9. TimB
    By the end of the run there’s 14” and still snowing. The stuff winter dreams are made of.
  10. TimB
    12z HRRR is looking great. Almost all snow and dry slotting stays SE. 6.4” through 42. A couple hours in there picked up almost 2”.
  11. TimB
    Pivotal. Between the NAM and RGEM. I’m not a subscriber.
  12. TimB
    Not sure the RAP is worth anything, but the 9z run had 22” at PIT.
  13. TimB
    It’s not far off of 12z. Just not as good as 18z.
  14. TimB
    Yeah, just looked at it and I’d take it, no questions asked.
  15. TimB
    Don’t tell me this means the GFS has it.
  16. TimB
    We didn’t need an east shift when we woke up this morning but now we do. That’s the source of anxiety.
  17. TimB
    That sounds like a concession speech.
  18. TimB
    But realism is good, isn’t it?
  19. TimB
    Wouldn’t take much, the computer must be prehistoric with as slow as it loads.
  20. TimB
    RGEM back to 15”.
  21. TimB
    Mostly I’m trying to keep my own hope alive and pretend it wasn’t a 3rd straight bad run of the NAM.
  22. TimB
    A little sleet between 6z and 9z. Some degree of snow lasting most of Monday. I’d say mostly snow.
  23. TimB
    It isn’t. 9” through the end of the run.
  24. TimB
    Glass half full. The NAM still gets damn near double digits in Pittsburgh. If this is the “worst case scenario”, I’d take the 8” it gives us and run with it.
  25. TimB
    Yes we should worry. Dry slotting for hours has always been on the table. NAM is an extreme scenario but other models have shown it.
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