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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    Of course it is, but what can you do? The NAM was showing this issue from the time this storm got into its range, but we all dismissed it (but so did the pros, so I don’t feel as bad).
  2. TimB
    And there’s the sleet/zr. WAA is undefeated in Pittsburgh.
  3. TimB
    Ripping pretty good in the north hills now. Almost all snow.
  4. TimB
    Next panel has a few spots of red.
  5. TimB
    Hopefully those yellows and oranges don’t find a way to split the areas close to the city. Looks like they could.
  6. TimB
    The right side of the chart. Chance of seeing more than 6” is 80% or so for most of the county.
  7. TimB
  8. TimB
    What’s more, the NWS now says there’s a solid 20% chance many locations in the immediate Pittsburgh area don’t even see warning level snow .
  9. TimB
    I don’t think a statement like “anything less than 8 inches at PIT would be a bust” is at all unreasonable, given the forecast as recently as a few hours ago, but I’ll also say that I don’t think PIT falls short of 8 inches.
  10. TimB
    PIT airport isn’t in Morgantown, and their point&click has mix this evening.
  11. TimB
    Problem is the NWS has the mix in the zones when we can least afford it: during the period with the best rates, before the possible dry slot. Why can’t we ever have a nice clean storm?
  12. TimB
    I feel like the trends are back in the good direction. It’s go time!
  13. TimB
    RGEM is still a huge hit.
  14. TimB
    40 and a chance of rain on Wednesday. A garden variety 6-8” event will be almost gone in areas that get any sunshine at all in 3 days.
  15. TimB
    I’m starting to worry that what looked like something special on the overnight model runs the morning of the event is now just going to be a garden variety WSW snowfall. Won’t complain about 8” or so, but we get that kind of event most years.
  16. TimB
    The regular NAM was terrible.
  17. TimB
    Yeah, jog that thing a bit west and we’re in business. It’s at least interesting at this point. The 6z GFS has a parade of potential winter greatness.
  18. TimB
    I’m supposed to work tomorrow but not going to sleep much tonight so I could get behind the power outage idea.
  19. TimB
    Thing is, the models suggest we could already have warning-level snow on the ground when Ben lines up in the victory formation and takes a knee.
  20. TimB
    Bottom line is, even with all this fretting about dry slotting, this run still puts down roughly a foot in the metro. Yes, it’s closer to 18” in Youngstown.
  21. TimB
    Looks like it mixes for a bit after it fills in.
  22. TimB
    Fills back in by 6z.
  23. TimB
    Dry slot arrives at 3z on the HRRR. 6” on the ground at that point.
  24. TimB
    That’s the bottom line here. Yes, I want something special, but I think I’m okay with the idea of settling for 8” of snow of the dry slot screws us.
  25. TimB
    Dry slot looked very prominent on the 11z HRRR through 18 hours. I’m watching the 12z to see how quickly it fills in on the full run.
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