TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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Probably too early to take any NAM output seriously. -
I know it’s the NAM at range, but the first look at the back end snow potential on the NAM is, well… not good.
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Part of Florida was red or at the very least grey, so not quite the same. This is literally 100% coverage of red, and it happens alarmingly often.
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Guess what’s back yet again. Entire CONUS above normal, as seems to happen at least 5 times a year these days. The opposite never happens.
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Ensembles are virtually unchanged for snow from 0z. Maybe an inch, two if we’re lucky on the ground for Christmas. The biggest change is that all of them bring the Arctic front through on Friday morning rather than later in the day.
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SW flow behind the front. Forget it.
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Once the 500 anomalies on the GEFS go red over our area next Tuesday, they stay red for the remainder of the run.
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Continues to crush our back end snow dreams. You know that’s how it’s going to play out too.
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Probably. I don’t spend much time thinking about what that model shows for any situation.
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To the extent that the Ukie matters, it’s now showing 0.2” of snow.
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GEFS is now almost certain that the front comes through in the morning. The spread at 12z is 11/54, spread at 18z is 2/18. Would like to believe for practical, non weather weenie purposes that it’s probably better if this happens earlier in the day.
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Important to note, though, that the ensembles 10th/90th percentiles for 18z Friday still show an absolutely massive range. On the CMC ensemble, these numbers are 4 and 57 degrees.
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12z guidance so far seems to be showing that we’ve crashed into the low teens or single digits by that timeframe.
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Yeah, looks like the front comes through early enough that at least we don’t get midnighted on Saturday. I’m just concerned that we overperform if we get any sunshine and no snow cover. I didn’t realize the low max for Christmas Eve was so attainable (13). I knew about the 0 on Christmas 1983, but I didn’t realize just how impressive that was. Looks like the next coldest December high in the last 100 years was 7.
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Am I the only one who isn’t all that impressed with the magnitude of the cold even behind the frontal passage? With the lack of snow cover, NWS is already going high on temps for the holiday weekend. Highs in the upper teens and lows in the upper single digits. Meh. We got cold of that magnitude pretty much every winter up until the last few winters when it became nearly impossible to get a high below 20.
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The Euro solution has us dry slotting just in time for the potential snow. GFS also has the dry slot feature, but it’s still in a location where we can get some snow.
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The problem I’m seeing with the back end snow potential is that the Euro, which sniffed out the cutter in the first place long before the GFS did, has started a disturbing trend of virtually no snow on the back end (about 1” on the 0z). For what it’s worth, the UKMET agrees with this garbage. So do the It’s probably prudent to lower our expectations yet again. Edit: with the exception of the GEFS, the ensembles are on board with this solution too. Probably the biggest gut punch since 1/19/19.
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Pittsburgh/Western PA Banter & Complaint Thread
TimB replied to blackngoldrules's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yeah, I’d like to air a grievance about how we need to have absolutely perfect conditions to get a decent snowstorm around here these days. I feel like it wasn’t always this way. Everything cuts now. Hope our 3 days of cold is fun for everyone and then we get to watch the MJO slog through 4-5-6 for a few weeks. -
Saturday, Sunday and Monday will be cold with an inch of snow on the ground. What, you wanted more from this winter?
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3” would be acceptable. 1-2 would be a gut punch.
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We’ll always take the bonus snow, plus decent model trends.
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Well yeah, prevailing wisdom seems to be that February could be ugly so hoping we can have a solid January.
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So how long do yinz think the warm spell that’s coming a few days after Christmas is going to last?
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True. We were in the same boat last Dec. 17 and we made it.
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I guess at the end of the day, maybe we just need to be happy with the fact that we managed to get two above normal snow seasons out of 3 Niñas in a row.
