TimB

2022, the year without a summer, where all three months were chilly and we didn’t get to 94 in June. In unrelated news, I really hope this mid-March setup produces for us. It looks like a decent signal for a chance at some goods to close out the season.

I deliberately excluded months that came before the super Niño permanently ushered in new levels of heat.

I’d get raked over the coals for saying something like the bolded, as it really is just one year and Jan-Feb was fine last year and the year before, but then I remember all of the horrific, hellish winter months we’ve had in the last 8 years. December 2015, January 2017, February 2017, February 2018, January 2020, December 2021, January 2023, February 2023. That’s an average of one winter month every year that is so far above normal that it’s remarkable. There is not a single month in that period with as negative a departure as any of the above months are positive.

And so today concludes the warmest Jan-Feb period anyone who posts here has ever experienced in this area. Warmer than 2017. Warmer than 1998.

Missing out on a snowstorm in December or January, you know there will probably be more chances. Missing out on a snowstorm as the calendar flips to spring stings a lot more knowing it may very well be the last chance for a very long time. Especially in a winter where there hasn’t been a single period other than 72 hours around Christmas that even slightly resembled winter.

The usual “always a bridesmaid” that our area does best when it comes to most types of weather. Pittsburgh is right at the fringe of the marginal risk. Can’t see how we’re going to achieve much instability as dreary as it is out there.

What if it’s not? What if this is what winter is now?

In a matter of like 2 days, we went from something well south of us to something where the heaviest snowfall might be west of the Mississippi. You can’t make this shit up.

All I wanted was one event bigger than our current highest daily total of 2.2”, which we’ve quite literally gotten in every single winter on the record.

Oh wait, but there’s that pattern flip in mid-March. Let’s see if we can get some snow while fighting against a climatological average high of 50.

Are they? It’s probably going to be 10 months until we get even an advisory level snowfall. Well probably 11, since we all know it doesn’t happen in December anymore.

And it’s gone. What a disaster. Infuriating. Revisiting that “going to be disappointment somewhere in the east” comment, yeah, there’s going to be disappointment in all of the exact same areas that have been disappointed all winter because this thing is taking a similar GOD DAMN F***ING track as every storm we’ve seen all winter.

Well, that pretty much tells us everything that we need to know. We have to hope for a miracle or we’ll continue to be on a collision course with our first winter without an advisory level snowfall for at least 90 years if ever. Even 1918-1919, the winter that (allegedly) had 8.8” of snow for the season, had an advisory level snowfall. So did 1889-1890, which had 11.4” for the season. This really might be the first winter ever without one. Edit: it appears 1930-31 had a max daily snowfall of 2.2”, just like this year. Besides that, all other winter seasons in Pittsburgh have had 2.5” of snowfall on at least one day. So we’re still in line to tie an all time record from a year where measurements were taken in an area that gets less snow than the airport.

Such a stupid, stupid pattern. Every damn storm this winter. Literally every bad winter I’ve looked at so far, back to 1932, has had at least one advisory level event.

Euro is hanging on by a thread. Yikes.

GEFS mean did improve at 12z, but it’s still down from 6”+ yesterday to 4” now.

Ukie is following the bad trend. I think it’s only a matter of time before the Canadian gives it up.

12z hasn’t been good to us at all. This is going to be the same old story as every god damn storm so far this winter. We just can’t win.

Euro was good. Bullseye is a bit south but 8-12”+ across the county. Ukie bullseyes us with over a foot. The GFS thing is concerning, however. And honestly, so is the huge NW shift in all of the models over the last 24 hours, even the ones that look great for us, because once that starts it doesn’t usually stop.

That’s a nasty gradient on the 18z GFS, but good lord, where it maxes out, it maxes out. GEFS mean looks great too, still over 6” for that event.

Euro brought it back into a decent area and not way south, which was nice to see. Fringes us verbatim but room to improve. As for the “going to be disappointment somewhere,” absolutely I understand that’s the case. But even the worst of winters get us one advisory level event. Think 19-20. We had that high end advisory snow in February. 16-17 had a few low end advisory type events. 15-16, same deal. Even 97-98. It’s been a long time since we have gone an entire winter without even one advisory level event (if ever, I didn’t go back much further).

And it’s gone on the 12z. Hope yinz enjoyed it while it lasted.

And it’s basically an advisory level event at 6z. I’d still take it. GEFS mean for that event is up close to 6”. Unfortunately it’s an outlier.

GEFS mean went down significantly at 18z, so unfortunately it’s only a matter of time before this goes away.

2nd time this winter the GFS has depicted Pittsburgh’s largest snowstorm on record. And we know what happened the first time. An Arctic front with a dusting of snow and 3 days of cold.