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TimB

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  1. TimB
    With our next shot at getting below freezing not until Friday, we’ve likely clinched a spot in the top 10 fewest December days that have reached the freezing mark, as the best we can do is 13 days if Friday, Saturday and Sunday all get below freezing. Note that only one of the years with 14 or fewer days getting below freezing was observed at KPIT, and it was 2015 which is the standard bearer for awful Decembers.
  2. TimB
    Can’t win, I made a comment that was a statement of fact from a model run and not even negative from a standpoint of people who want snow.
  3. TimB
    Helps that modeled temps are sitting in the lower 20s at the height of that thing.
  4. TimB
    Not sure where all the anger in this thread is coming from, is it that we’re headed towards another Christmas with highs in the 50s and not even a hint of snow or is it something else?
  5. TimB
    As always, I hope you’re right and the CPC is wrong. I’m not ready to throw in the towel yet, but it’s been a pretty demoralizing run for a winter and a half.
  6. TimB
    It’s a PSU thing. Years of being the cupcake opponent on Michigan and OSU’s schedule have given him a complex.
  7. TimB
    Oof. Looks like it coincides with a bone dry period.
  8. TimB
    The seasonable period looks dry as hell. It’s going to take tremendous luck to see any meaningful snowfall before at least mid-January, and that’s 4 weeks away.
  9. TimB
    Uh oh
  10. TimB
    Oh and also the signal for negative height anomalies in the longer term is much more muted in the long range GEPS and EPS. The GEFS is the only one keeping the faith that it’s more than a few days of kinda cold.
  11. TimB
    This is absolutely what @Bubbler86does as well. He’ll tell you so himself.
  12. TimB
    Yes. NWS went all snow with their forecast, but then there was a lot of mixing early on and his backyard allegedly fell short of warning criteria.
  13. TimB
    We fell short of those totals (right @KPITSnow), but I’d imagine PBZ’s whole area aside from maybe the far western Ohio counties were under a warning.
  14. TimB
    I feel like that may have been one where they just rolled with an advisory and it overperformed. Am I wrong? Edit: It looks like we had a watch that was later downgraded to an advisory, which they kept through the duration of the event. So we had a watch then, but the last time Allegheny county was pink was in January 2022.
  15. TimB
    From last night’s forecast discussion: You’d think the NWS would learn that every time they do this, their forecast busts. Forecast low at PIT was 23, actual low was 30.
  16. TimB
    I wasn’t impressed with how fleeting the cold was on the GEFS either.
  17. TimB
    xmACIS doesn’t give you that option when doing 5 year periods, but 1/1 to 12/31 is sufficient when measuring the “least snowy 5 year periods.” It’s a little less useful when doing 1 year increments.
  18. TimB
    With that said, the 18z had signs of promise for a second but was then an absolute nightmare.
  19. TimB
    With this morning’s low of 20 and above normal temperatures expected the rest of the month, we appear to have possibly clinched the 7th December on record and 2nd in the KPIT era (2012 was the other) where temps didn’t drop into the teens.
  20. TimB
    It’s an operational model or whatever.
  21. TimB
    None of those years start with 2. Strange.
  22. TimB
    Cue the “and you know what happened right after 12/31/1992” comments.
  23. TimB
    Half inch or so imby. I’d guess a lot of places, especially those that got the band this morning, picked up at least an inch. Official NWS obs as of 7am was 1.0”, so this thing met expectations on the official record.
  24. TimB
    And ultimately, despite “different experiences,” the experience we’ve all shared last winter and the beginning of this winter has been largely the same and hasn’t been good. It has to turn around at some point, and hopefully it’ll be this winter, but it’s hard not to be cynical right now.
  25. TimB
    Got a few tenths here. Better than nothing I guess.
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