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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    12z so far seems to have taken a jump SE. Need to pull this thing back NW.
  2. TimB
    Also it’s snowing right now, which is a win even if it won’t amount to much.
  3. TimB
    The Euro paints a picture where we don’t really win but get a “good enough” scenario (advisory level event) while DC jackpots. I’d still take it.
  4. TimB
    Agreed. Rain and mixing were a problem with big storms long before winter was warm.
  5. TimB
    12z Euro actually gives us two storms in that window.
  6. TimB
    Canadian is now on board with something that gets the job done, and GFS is still serviceable. We should have our chances.
  7. TimB
    Man, the GFS has come to life. Hope it’s onto something. Euro doesn’t have the storm in the right place for us but way too early to sort out those details.
  8. TimB
    Calendar year, yes. For the season they’re at 4.8 against a normal of 26.9.
  9. TimB
  10. TimB
    Indeed, in a typical El Niño, International Falls MN has a December that is 5 degrees warmer than any other December on record.
  11. TimB
    This one should be finalized. 2nd December on record that the airport didn’t get below 20.
  12. TimB
    I’m going to cut the negativity. If this winter sucks, it sucks. Hopefully we all luck out and get something out of it.
  13. TimB
    10th day of 55+ temperatures this month. This occurred in 2 Decembers from 1952 to 2014, and has now occurred in 3 from 2015 to 2023. The record is 14 in 2015, which we won’t get to.
  14. TimB
    I sure as hell don’t have any faith in the old records. I’m quite familiar with how questionable they are at PIT and I’m sure it’s much the same at other sites.
  15. TimB
    PIT closing in on an inch of rain today. Daily rainfall record has been set, but the old record was the softest of December and one of the softest of the entire year at 0.73”. Also moves us past 2002, so this won’t be the driest year of the 2000s.
  16. TimB
    No need to bring actual facts and statistics to the discussion, personal observations and PWS data spliced into a threaded record will always supersede observations at a first order climate site.
  17. TimB
    I recognize that 6-7” of snow over the next 16 days would be basically within the margin of error for “normal” but that’s what the GEFS mean is sitting at right now, which isn’t horrific.
  18. TimB
    You know what I’d place my money on if I had to bet between delayed and denied but I’m not going to continue flooding this place with negativity.
  19. TimB
    Agree that delayed but not denied is probably the best hope here.
  20. TimB
    I do understand what Blizz means on that, tho. Sure, you can’t really get accumulating snow most of the time when the temp is 38, but if the normals are, say, 38/24, a day that is 33/29 is exactly normal and you can get accumulating snow on that day.
  21. TimB
    Of course it exists. The 3 years we’re competing with for warmest year at PIT airport (1991, 2012 and 2016) had warmer average max temps than this year: So naturally this year has had the warmest lows at PIT: (Yes, I know 1949 isn’t actually PIT airport but I forgot to filter out 1948-1952).
  22. TimB
    Looks like possibly our first GEFS ensemble runs of the season with mean total snowfall over 6” finally showed up last night. 0z total might be a little high because it had several members pushing an advisory level snowfall Friday night into Saturday which seems ambitious, but things may finally be pointing in the right direction?
  23. TimB
    Who do I have to…well, you know… to get some goddamned snow around here?
  24. TimB
    True, forgot we have a thread for that specific purpose. My bad.
  25. TimB
    @TheClimateChangerI’d assume we have warmest year at KPIT in the bag?
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