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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    Not saying I’m fully buying in at all, but is there anyone here who wouldn’t take 6-10” of slushy mess that melts in two days at this point?
  2. TimB
    It survived the 0z and 6z runs. Perhaps more importantly, the 0z Canadian bought in. Then again, temps are very marginal, it’s not on any ensemble and it’s 8-9 days away.
  3. TimB
    No idea where he’s getting that from. This is a whole lot of nothing.
  4. TimB
    What if it never snows again? Our last 3” snowfall was 3/12/22. On Sunday, we will move past a period from February 1979 to November 1980 for 3rd longest time between advisory level snows. We’d have to get to mid-February to reach 2nd place, and let’s hope that doesn’t happen. The most recent calendar year without an advisory level snowfall was 1998. We’re 24 days away.
  5. TimB
    10:1 ratios are a solid bet when the ground is still practically like the surface of the sun and temps while snow is falling will be marginal.
  6. TimB
    We’ll definitely get our snow while a big 1035 high meanders around the east for days on end. I’m not worried at all.
  7. TimB
    Fair enough. That big midwestern ridge does struggle to translate east on the Canadian.
  8. TimB
    Yeah, the Canadian has a much colder look for a week from now.
  9. TimB
    Delayed but not denied.
  10. TimB
    And it’s basically gone at 0z. Hard to say we’re all that close to our first snowfall. CPC is forecasting a period of near normal temps, but with the caveat that they’re extremely bullish on this period being bone dry. (Not that “normal” in mid-December does all that much for us anyway.)
  11. TimB
    Indeed, it’s been a long, long time since we’ve had something like this on any model inside 5 days.
  12. TimB
    You’d be talking about this one (2020). Looks a lot like what the Euro just modeled, but we must remember there was a ton of cold air with that one and temps hovered around 20 on the back end of that storm, something that is severely lacking this time.
  13. TimB
    They’re both me. I alter my posting style between the three accounts just enough not to arouse suspicion. Or so I thought.
  14. TimB
    2020-21 was a good winter mostly because December was good and started with a big storm on the very first day of meteorological winter, which is looking highly unlikely for a repeat given the El Niño base state and current modeling. Not saying we can’t have a good January/February, but this winter likely isn’t going to look like a carbon copy of 2020-21.
  15. TimB
    With thanksgiving trending closer to seasonable rather than anomalously cold, we still have a shot at every day in November having a high of 40 or above. We also did it in 2020.
  16. TimB
  17. TimB
    AGC did briefly get to 39 or 40 just before the 8:00 hour. But yeah, there were some hourly obs last night where that difference was 10 or 11 degrees.
  18. TimB
    Already into the 60s.
  19. TimB
    Thanks for the heads up. I’ll be letting 69 News know you’re a hack with an improperly sited weather station splicing weather records back to 1894 into your own.
  20. TimB
    It’s less impressive than the 72 we hit in the wee hours of the morning of December 22, 2013, much deeper into the cold season.
  21. TimB
    Looks like today’s records are the only ones that occurred beyond the first week of November. And most of the others were set during the memorable November heatwaves of 2015, 2016 and 2022. Jesus, we almost hit 70 this morning.
  22. TimB
    Probably not particularly uncommon, as today’s low will be well below that and nowhere near the record warm min (61) at 11:59pm.
  23. TimB
    Nothing like waking up to it still being 64 degrees at 6am in November.
  24. TimB
    I feel like they’re often incredibly bad at this. The probabilities were posted by NWS on social media:
  25. TimB
    I’d say continuing our streak of above average temperature months is a good bet, and with a Niño December we may get to 10 above normal months this year:
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