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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. As always, it’s going to be a close call whether Pittsburgh somehow got there.
  2. That said, it is nearly impossible to get into the 40s in September nowadays. From 1935-2004 (70 years) every single September had at least 4 days get below 50. Since 2005 (18 years), 6 Septembers have had 3 or fewer days get below 50, and this year is looking pretty likely to be the 7th. In fact, this year has a chance to be the 5th September out of the past 9 that had two or fewer days get below 50. Really puts into perspective how much we’ve screwed up September and fall.
  3. Looked at PWS near the airport and every single one of them easily got into the 40s, some as low as 42 or 43. I know there’s a cold bias on those, but I’m just not buying the 50.
  4. And yet, inexplicably, PIT was the only observing site in the region that failed to get below 50.
  5. No idea why the NWS decided to undercut guidance and forecast a low of 44 this morning, that busted badly and PIT didn’t get below 50.
  6. That said, solid analysis and the rest of it probably is normal variation and not a sign of an obvious issue. Besides, why are we quibbling about a degree or two when the NWS allows the 77.3 monthly mean from September 1881 to stand as a legitimate record?
  7. 2018 was the year there was an obvious sensor issue at PIT for the first 10 days of the month, so it’s tough to make any comparisons using that month. Not only was PIT 3-4 degrees warmer during the heat wave early that month, it was also 3-4 degrees warmer for the duration of the remnants of Gordon when there was no insolation, etc. to produce any variation.
  8. PIT has to be running high. 67 at PIT, 64 at AGC right now.
  9. This morning’s low of 60 is our 9th low of 60+ this month, making this the 9th consecutive September with at least 9 lows of 60+. Prior to this stretch, we’d never done that more than 5 years in a row at the airport, and never at any observing site in the period of record outside of an extremely suspect stretch from 1889-1913 where every September had double digit days with lows of 60+.
  10. People with too much time on their hands probably should use it for good instead of silly little side quests like disproving climate change by setting up a weather station in such a way that the data is clearly manipulated.
  11. It’s almost like you can’t splice a couple decades of your own PWS records into an official threaded record at a different location dating back to 1894 (unless you live on the property where the old records were kept) and not get laughed at.
  12. PIT is over an inch. About 3/4” of which fell in 8 minutes.
  13. Another 90. First heat wave by definition since 2020. Also the 4th heat wave at least partially in September since 2010. Prior to that we hadn’t had one in September since 1973.
  14. 91 again so far. 4th time since 2011 that we’ve done 91 back to back in September. Prior to 2011 it hadn’t happened for 28 years.
  15. Is it possible to look at this thing and not already feel defeated, like December is already lost yet again?
  16. Fourth year out of the last 7 when the warmest temp of the season occurred in September (including ties). Two of the other three had their max in June. So only one out of the last 7 years (2020) had a max that occurred solely in July or August.
  17. I mean yeah, it’s a disaster. Even with the new warmer normals we’re still above them some 8 or 9 months every year.
  18. August is going to clock in just slightly above normal here, with highs just a tenth or two below normal but lows a degree or so above.
  19. Doing better than I am. Low for August at PIT was 52. The 9th straight year we haven’t gotten to 50 or lower in August, easily a record if you set the threshold at 51. There’s a 12 year stretch with no 40s from 1892-1903 but there were a couple years in that stretch that dropped to 50.
  20. You’ve been venturing into OT too much lately, lol. I didn’t read @Bubbler86’s post as an intent to cause disagreement or strife.
  21. Sometimes the second half. I think the 91 on 9/27/17 was the highest temperature of that summer, maybe tied with a day in the first half of June.
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