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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    NWS is so goddamn lazy in their forecast discussions. The long term still mentions the Midwest omega block and northeast trough that are long gone. Well, I guess the omega block is over us but the troughing is offshore.
  2. TimB
  3. TimB
    Hard to be miserable when it’s going to be 53 and sunny this weekend. Hope you get to golf.
  4. TimB
    I can actually get behind the idea of the weekend being warm and sunny and downright springlike, but it really is incredible how fast the models flipped it from cold to warm at fairly close range.
  5. TimB
    I was talking specifically about the three Januaries he mentioned, two of which were very snowy and the other wasn’t snowy, but part of another historic winter. The three Januaries ahead of this one in precip totals in his area were all part of epic winters, and this one won’t be. To deny that is to obfuscate.
  6. TimB
    My (correct) point is, nowadays when a winter month has a lot of precip, it’s almost a sure bet that most of it is rain. But two out of the three past winters you mentioned had wet months that were mostly snow. So in the past, an anomalously wet winter month could be rainy or snowy. And snow has not been the predominant p-type this winter, lol. Also, we were talking about January, why bring in December? Try to keep up.
  7. TimB
    I don’t pay for pivotal so I can’t see the EPS snow map, but the mean snow depth peaks at 0.2”. That’s absolutely insane for the first half of February.
  8. TimB
    And the ensemble mean is just as bad. Less than an inch over 16 days.
  9. TimB
    To your point, here’s today’s 12z GFS snow map for the entire run east of the Rockies. Can it be any more brutal for the heart of winter?
  10. TimB
    March 2022 had that storm that dropped like 9” overnight on a weekend and it was well into the 60s by midweek, then I think a smaller event very late in the month, followed by a 36 hour period where we went from a low of 14 one morning to a high of 76 the next day. It was one of those rare Marches where we got lots of snow despite it being decisively above normal temperature-wise on the whole.
  11. TimB
    Yeah, now no one east of the Rockies is winning (except maybe outliers like Buffalo and Minneapolis last winter), but that’s almost worse because it gives little signs of hope.
  12. TimB
    Latest GFS suggests we never see the troughing and instead get a portion of the ridge. An above normal period in that Feb 1-5 timeframe suddenly seems alive and well again. This is comical. Another embarrassing model fail less than 6 days out.
  13. TimB
    It’s going to be an uphill climb to even get this winter into the category of “pretty bad but not abysmal” like a 2016-17 or a 2018-19 as opposed to a 2019-20 or a 2022-23.
  14. TimB
    Well we already lost the snow for next weekend, but now it seems we’ve lost the cold too. Even the “cold” part of the pattern is warm and dry.
  15. TimB
    Personally I’m not sure a January with 6” of precip falling primarily in the form of rain is much more preferable to a January with 6” of precip falling primarily in the form of cat piss, the most vile substance discovered to date.
  16. TimB
    What was the predominant p-type in those three Januaries? What has been the predominant p-type in this one?
  17. TimB
    Actually even more than that. We’re already at +3.9. Looking at the forecast to close out the month, could be +4.2 or 4.3.
  18. TimB
    Oof. If that’s where we are as of 2/14, and even if it quickly reverses after that, there are 4, maybe 5 at most, weeks left where snow would be viable.
  19. TimB
    It seems we’re running out of time yet again. Looks warm after the suppressed storm next week and it’ll be mid February before anything could even possibly flip, which is still not a guarantee. The past, present, and future weather at this juncture is, indeed, soul crushing.
  20. TimB
    Remarkably, the majority of that January 1978 precip fell as snow. 6.25” of precip and 40.2” of snow that month, for the snowiest January and 3rd snowiest month on record. Also looks like we’ve set yet another daily precip record, our 3rd since Christmas. With 150+ years of records, we’d be expected to get less than 3 of those per year, and now we’ve had 3 in about a month.
  21. TimB
    I know it’s just the Canadian, but LOL. 982mb low in a great spot in early Feb and the entire precip shield is rain.
  22. TimB
    November 1950 and other similar storms also had tremendous amounts of cold air that they were able to tap into, so they didn’t result in two days of snow with temperatures hovering at or just above freezing.
  23. TimB
    Nevermind. Duh. November 1950.
  24. TimB
    Can someone come up with storm that’s taken a similar track? I’m striking out.
  25. TimB
    I’m sure he’d post record lows if we ever got those too. But I agree, record highs and warm lows are less interesting now that we get at least one a month.
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