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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    The GEFS ensemble mean is ugly as hell and no one really wins. Even the best areas (not us) are getting an advisory level 3-5” type event.
  2. TimB
    That thing is absolutely booking it, which really cuts totals back. Still, I’d take a high end advisory like that.
  3. TimB
    Look dude, at this time, the main takeaway message is to simply keep an eye on the forecast for the weekend and early next week.
  4. TimB
    Oddly, the cutter still isn’t looking terrible on the ensemble.
  5. TimB
    It would sure be a kick in the teeth if the Steelers got their asses kicked as we watched the snow pile up on TV in Baltimore while seeing very little out the windows. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. Ideally we see a good snowfall and we get to see a good snow game on tv that ends in a win. But this is Pittsburgh and these kinds of things are rare.
  6. TimB
    Oh right, lord help us if this thing busts as we’re watching the Steelers get eliminated from playoff contention by a bunch of backups.
  7. TimB
    GEFS took a step back with QPF and the ensemble mean is an advisory level event even in the jackpot areas.
  8. TimB
    12z GFS looks good, at least as depicted, but I’d suspect in reality it would include some mixing issues with that track. Canadian has moved back to a workable solution.
  9. TimB
    0z GEFS ensemble mean had 14” of snow in our area over the entire run. Of course, the operational GFS is also going crazy with snow amounts on our area too.
  10. TimB
    GFS looked fantastic at 0z. Canadian was an epic disaster. Hopefully some middle ground solution wins out.
  11. TimB
    We don’t need to jackpot if we can just get a solution like that, not suppressed to hell. Solid low end warning event.
  12. TimB
    I like that Euro run. I can live with that or even an advisory level event even if I don’t jackpot. That’s just how it works. It’s just frustrating that objectively bad solutions like 1-3” or even nothing are still on the table.
  13. TimB
    I’d certainly be happy with that solution, or even an advisory level event. It’s the fact that 1-3” type events (or less) are still very much on the table that is frustrating.
  14. TimB
    Also I think I specifically said if we don’t get a win I’m rooting for these guys and not those damn beltway folks.
  15. TimB
    Just thought 2024 would be different.
  16. TimB
    Merely stating what the GFS showed, and it shows that there’s still a path to complete failure for both storms.
  17. TimB
    Don’t worry, the second storm on the GFS is now a Lakes cutter.
  18. TimB
    Just said I was rooting for you so the mid Atlantic elites don’t get to end the misery before I do.
  19. TimB
    Oh right, you guys did get a win out of that one. But it’s still trending toward a rage-inducing win for DC, and when they win everyone loses.
  20. TimB
    This thing is DOA for Pittsburgh at this point, and I’d be enraged if DC wins so I hope you guys get a win here.
  21. TimB
    Sadly, everything has caved to the 0z Euro. This thing needs to trend back, but fortunately there’s still plenty of time for that to happen.
  22. TimB
    12z so far seems to have taken a jump SE. Need to pull this thing back NW.
  23. TimB
    Also it’s snowing right now, which is a win even if it won’t amount to much.
  24. TimB
    The Euro paints a picture where we don’t really win but get a “good enough” scenario (advisory level event) while DC jackpots. I’d still take it.
  25. TimB
    Agreed. Rain and mixing were a problem with big storms long before winter was warm.
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