TimB

Wow, that’s incredible stuff. Probably about as cold as it gets for mid-June. Thing is, all of the models support extreme anomalous cold aloft somewhere at that time, but that solution puts it closest to PA.

That’s the 540 line I see into far northern PA at 9z Wednesday.

Rumor has it this would bring an end to the drought for some.

I guess I shouldn’t say “significant”, but yes northern MN as well as the Twin Cities/Western WI. I recognize there’s much, much more to the Midwest than that area.

I didn’t get that one, but I got the one Monday. I’m 1/3 so far this week.

Well said. More people live in areas that are heavily affected by UHI than in areas that are not. As far as I’m concerned, UHI and AGW are almost two sides of the same coin: human activities making the earth warmer and less livable. By that token, it’s irrelevant to try to parse how much of these unprecedentedly hot spells are attributable to AGW vs. UHI, at least if one’s goal is to solve the problem rather than pretend it doesn’t exist. (Sorry if this is off-topic, but I would argue that it’s not off topic when a significant portion of this sub is currently, in June 2021, experiencing conditions that are way warmer than they have ever been this time of year, and it’s hard to argue that it’s not mostly attributable to AGW or UHI or both.)

Love how those storms break up as they enter the anti-storm force field that is Allegheny County. Such great climo here.

Although I agree that it probably won’t end well for the hospital because of its location, that would be the wrong outcome. I would guess there is a massive overlap of people who say employers shouldn’t be able to fire someone over covid vaccination status and people who believe that businesses should have the freedom to make their own personnel decisions for whatever reason they choose. That’s a pretty strong contradiction in beliefs, imo.

There is a lot of precip currently falling in western CTP, it appears. 5 SPS currently issued.

I would assume the same. I would imagine there are certainly times when one location in a county has a 40% chance of rain and another has 70%. They really can’t use a rigid definition of that formula for practical reasons.

I second Mount Joy’s explanation. I couldn’t have wordsmithed it that well. This is well articulated as to why this works. So by “the area” or “the forecast zone”, does the NWS view this as by county?

Yes, to get a 60% chance of rain by that formula, you’re implying that at least 60% of the area gets measurable precip.

Wouldn’t it be nice if our climo allowed for copious stratiform rain in summer?

Not that it absolves the forecast of any incorrectness, because the percentages still don’t work out in the favor of 60%, but isn’t it (percentage chance that precip will form)*(percentage of the area that will see measurable precip)? So if the met is 80% confident that precip will form, and if it does, it will cover 50% of the area, 80%*50% = 40% chance of rain?

There seems to be a lot of broad-brushing, especially on the forecasting side, and especially with the NWS (and that’s probably understandable given their wider audience). That said, I would guess that the issue on the model side has something to do with resolution, but like @Bubbler86said, even the hi-res models only seem to handle it marginally better.

I appreciate the hell out of anyone who enjoys snow (and other weather) as much as I do. I thought I was just weird, then I found these forums and discovered that I’m still weird, but not alone.

Well I see how little the Western PA folk post on here after the snow stops flying but I need my weather fix somehow. (And occasionally BSing about baseball and other topics.) Gotta also give @paweather credit for talking about snow daily while knowing it won’t be happening anytime soon.

If I had the choice between dying and spending an eternity in hell or dying and spending an eternity in La Crosse, Wisconsin, it would be a toss up. (Kidding, at least a little)

I mean LSE airport looks like this: Doesn’t exactly look like UHI hell to me.

Indeed, typos can be quite entertaining. But in seriousness, with apologies to @Mount Joy Snowman, I’m not relying on him or any other poster on a weather forum to determine whether or not the weather is going to kill me today.

Meh, it’s a weather forum, not life or death (for most of us).

On the subject of heat, MDT reaches 100 fairly regularly, right? Like a 5-10 year event?

You get a break from it on Friday and mid-next week.

Unfortunately yes. And that solution is another hurricane that stalls out in the gulf for a few days before crashing into western Louisiana.

I’d trade all 3 midweek days for a Saturday without question. I do like the 6z GFS “hurricane remnants mitigate the heat” solution in the longer term.