TimB

SPC thinks you’re right. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 131648Z - 131815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms developing will pose a risk for damaging winds and severe hail this afternoon/evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows morning clearing has given way to widespread cumulus development across the region. Surface temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s F amid rich low-level moisture characterized by dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s F. This has led to rapid destabilization, with MLCAPE values of 1500 J/kg being analyzed across the region, and approaching 2000-2500 J/kg across portions of south-central Pennsylvania. Isolated storms are already beginning to develop, with a severe/maturing convective cell noted in central New York. This trend is expected to continue, with scattered storms expected across the region by early to mid afternoon. With effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt, storms should organize into a mixture of multicells and supercells, posing a risk for mainly damaging winds and some severe hail, and a tornado or two is possible. Given these trends, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for the region in the next hour or so.

That’s one of the things I love about weather. The underlying principles can be so simple and intuitive, but the actual results on the ground can be so chaotic and unpredictable.

“Satisfy” is an understatement. That storm was incredible, IMO. A switch has been flipped. After a slow start to spring thunderstorms, June and July have been solid.

But does it bother you when MDT records 2” of snow and you get 6”?

I understand the fine people of Smethport refer to such events as a light sprinkle.

I wouldn’t have expected it to be a massive difference, just on those days when it’s marginal for convective temps to be breached, so statistically significant is good enough for me. I wouldn’t be shocked if it had an even smaller, but still there, effect on precip totals downstream (in areas generally slightly E/NE of cities) if storms are able to form in the slightly warmer environment of cities and then move out of those areas.

But isn’t Pillow the unofficial official site for Dauphin County now?

Sampled a few weather stations out there, they seem to be running either just behind or just ahead of PIT’s normal month to date, mostly due to overperforming relatively on 7/1.

I got a couple of torrential downpours back to back Sunday afternoon that put down over an inch of rain, then more rain last evening and early this morning that put down another inch or so. PIT airport got 0.39” on Sunday and 0.17” this morning, so that’s why I’m in the red and they’re in the yellow. I would guess UHI has some effect on thunderstorms, given that warmer temperatures create more instability, but that’s a conjecture and I’ve never looked at the science.

Sounds like a wide gap between the haves and the have nots in a small area from what I’ve read on here.

Yinzerland stands in solidarity with you on this one. Best overnight storm in recent memory out here.

@Bubbler86 overnight model runs looked on the dry side but seem to keep the big heat at bay. GFS range now goes to 7/29 so let’s hope we can lock this in.

That 3:45 storm meant business. Never lost power here but there were quite a few lightning strikes very close to my house and near constant lightning for awhile. My dog is normally unfazed by thunderstorms but this one had him nervous. All in all, one of the better overnight thunderstorms in recent memory.

Science-adjacent, at the very least.

Man, after a slow start there sure have been a lot of severe risk days both there and out my way.

Looks like the SPC slight risk extends west into Perry/ Snyder/ Cumberland/ Juniata counties, but I would imagine torrential rain is more likely than severe wind. Discussion from the SPC says 60% chance of watch issuance for S/E half of PA.

Probably not tornadic with this setup but possibly severe. Flooding isn’t SPC’s domain.

Ironic given that he likes snow. I suppose if you’re a Euro apologist you’re always pleasantly surprised when it does snow.

No matter what happens with the GFS, we’ll be able to see August on it by the end of the week!

I’ll take that over anything the GooFuS wants to show us.

It hasn’t even shown up on back to back runs yet, let alone within 10 days.

Looks like it might go zonal before it gets too, too brutal.

Took a brief look. Oh God, the 100inistas get more digital fantasyland excitement.

Work has gotten in the way of me watching it like a hawk. I’ll have to wait until later and look at all the 12z models at once.

The SFA robbery was actually in 2016. UW went on to lose to that Notre Dame team in the Sweet 16. But I agree that a game against UW would have been winnable for SFA. Seems we all have our reasons for hating Notre Dame.