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TimB

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  1. TimB
    Gives you an idea of how ridiculous the pattern would have to be to squeeze out a T in September. It’s really not plausible (but again, it’s happened once in Pittsburgh). As for records, verbatim that gives us a high of about 43 at PIT on 9/29. We have 5 September days in our records with highs in the 40s, none since 1950, and none with a high below 46. MDT has done it once: a high of 48 on 9/28/1984.
  2. TimB
    We’re talking about a low center that retrogrades from Scranton to Traverse City, MI in 36 hours.
  3. TimB
    Indeed, not counting on a cut-off retrograding low.
  4. TimB
    Clown map time:
  5. TimB
    Verbatim, would probably be a T at PIT. Temp at 18z on 9/29 is 38.
  6. TimB
    540 line is down to TN/GA line.
  7. TimB
    GFS in mid-winter form already:
  8. TimB
    I think this adjusts down another notch with this afternoon’s release.
  9. TimB
    Has kept PIT from getting past 64 so far. Achieving 15 more degrees this afternoon to get to the forecast high will be difficult with September sun angle.
  10. TimB
    Also hope this fog holds on as long as possible and cuts into our high temp today.
  11. TimB
    It’s definitely been better than what I was dreading. The humidity has been brutal, but even that broke last night, if only for 12 hours or so. Don’t think I’ll complain too much about a stretch in September where we only get into the low 80s (maybe mid-80s a day or two if we overperform). PBZ’s one forecaster that actually writes good discussions had this to say:
  12. TimB
    All of the models seem to be on board with that mid-week frontal passage. Overnight runs were exactly what I wanted to see.
  13. TimB
    Hey, isn’t September 29th pretty much the same sun angle as....the sun angle of the Blizzard of 93?
  14. TimB
    MDT is at 41 with rain on that panel. But the big news is, digital snow for PA has officially begun.
  15. TimB
    Some areas of Potter/Tioga get 6+” Kuch.
  16. TimB
    EC keeps the ugly dewpoints over all of PA through the end of its run.
  17. TimB
    12z GFS does what it should in September. Warm -> cold front in 8 days or so -> seasonable with mostly sub-60 dewpoints -> chilly with a 540 line through almost all of PA (actually dips to the VA/NC border at the end).
  18. TimB
    65? Foreclosure doesn’t sound like comfort to me, and that’s what I’d be facing if I set mine at 65.
  19. TimB
    Not 2. 0.2
  20. TimB
    Even the remaining “heat” over the next week could probably be more accurately described as “warmth”, save for maybe a day here or there.
  21. TimB
    The end is in sight. CMC does something different and rebuilds the ridge in that timeframe after a less decisive frontal passage and retrograding trough.
  22. TimB
    The last couple days of that run do look spectacular. Lock it in.
  23. TimB
    18z GFS gets a bit toasty late in the run again. In better news, October will be within view on the GFS by morning.
  24. TimB
    Just looked at the earlier parts of the GFS run, which suggest 90 is still in play for me early next week, when my normal high is 73.
  25. TimB
    Looks like we’re right in the battleground between the trough and the ridge at the end. That would be fairly seasonable.
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