TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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An interesting point. In theory, a T would be enough for that to happen. Problem is, to get the +8 departure, the part of the month where a T is even conceivable would have to be hot.
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I can tell you one thing. It won’t be below normal!
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I think it’s good stuff, personally. But I feel like it might be much like debating whether September will be above, at, or below normal snowfall.
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We probably shouldn’t be debating something that will almost certainly not happen anyway. Not sure about MDT, but there is exactly ONE September here that achieved a +8 departure (+12.4 to be exact), and it’s probably the most suspect weather record I’ve ever seen. I will never believe that September 1881 had the same average temperature as July 2020 here.
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Your point is a good one, though I calculated the number needed from 9/8 to 9/30 in your scenario to be about +14: +8*30 = 240 -12*7 = -84 240 + 84 = 324 324 / 23 = ~14 Still extremely hard to do over a 23 day span.
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Correct. 10 of the remaining days were +15 or more, and 3 were +25 or more. Pretty sure a +25 departure on just about any September day is basically impossible. That would be 107/88 on the 1st and 97/78 on the 30th at MDT.
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What if I told you this was the first half of a February at PIT that ended up at +7.7?
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So +8 on the late September low would be 61. Not exactly sweltering or far-fetched.
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It’s not impossible. May 2018 was +8.9 at PIT relative to the old normals and looked like this: I would say if PIT can do it in May, MDT can do it in September. (Note that all 31 days were above normal.)
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Going +8 on normals that increased by over a degree with the recent update would be a real feat.
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And that’s saying something. On another note: Even not being an O’s fan, I’m confident that I know exactly what it’s like to be one.
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It’s the only thing about Florida that can be safely discussed in this forum right now.
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I would take a string of dry days with highs in the 60s/70s here over any digital snow at some other location, even if it’s 10 feet in Florida.
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0z GFS Kuch snow map (look how close it is to the states):
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That was once in a lifetime stuff. Can’t believe I forgot about it until now.
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I’d feel a little guilty if something like that map I just posted actually plays out. Memorial Day weekend...front end of the 4th of July weekend...Labor Day weekend...
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I’d take anything within 15 degrees of that.
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But then again, there’s some incredible stuff on the 18z GFS. Most notably this: Note that this is NOT rain induced. DPs in the low to mid 40s, and some chilly nights on either side (MDT hits 48 the following morning).
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It’s probably too early to write off September, even if the first week proves to be above normal. It’s just a sore spot for me, it was once one of the better weather months of the year but now it’s just an extension of summer many years.
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I want to say the new September normals are the ones that increased the most when they updated them earlier this year, but don’t quote me on that. Finishing “only” a degree or two above the new normals would be a hollow victory to me.
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Unfortunately it seems we’re quite a ways from being into more than a token day in the 70s due to clouds/precip here and there. If I had to put money on it, the next day PIT sees with a high in the 70s and zero precip is more than 2 weeks away, and you know what that means for MDT.
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90 doesn’t appear to be on the table for me today, barring an increase of 4 degrees from here on out. Tomorrow appears to be our best shot.
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It makes it into the US!
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Good lord, not in here, man.
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And can’t forget the Palouse.
