TimB

I think I have a 9 day stretch where the DP doesn’t drop below 60 (there might be one panel where it gets down to 59). Yes, I’m with you on the idea that it’s ridiculous to expect that the temperature not get to 80 for the entirety of September, or to expect days and days with highs in the 60s or 50s. But I don’t think it’s ridiculous to expect that there won’t be a week-plus stretch of relentless summer heat/humidity this late in the year.

You guys fare a bit better than I do. I think I saw a 10 day stretch where I get to 80 on 7 or 8 days. And a lot of those days also come with DPs in the 60s.

What about the rest of the run?

Can we accurately classify that as “MDT doing MDT things”?

We can’t expect to get through September without hitting 80, and a day or two of low 80s can be managed without a/c, but I’m still hoping against hope that the 2015-2019 version of our Septembers isn’t our permanent new normal, and that last September wasn’t just a fluke. Also, if you go by the GFS, the last 2 runs have had Sunday afternoon at 84/65 and 82/65, so it’s not necessarily the case that it’ll be lower humidity.

Correct. Happy Labor Day to all. It was a near-perfect weekend on the weather front, as far as I’m concerned. Completes the trifecta of below normal holiday weekends this summer.

GFS isn’t buying what the EC is selling, at all. 18z is still on the idea of a lot of perfect September weather.

Don’t if you can avoid it. It’s gross.

Next week gets ugly on the EC. At least 3 days where reaching or exceeding 90 is very much in play. In mid-September. Hope it’s wrong.

EC and CMC still leaning towards letting the bad guys win, and the CPC 8-14 day outlook is still 50% chance of above normal for pretty much all of PA, so it’s not all good news.

Imagine if someone had told me 48 hours ago that this map would exist today:

There’s still a warm period in front of it, and we won’t know until late in the week what the EC and CMC will do during that time period. What’s more likely, +8 or -8?

Love watching that 540 line cross PA. Other goodies include this:

I could talk about beer all night, but we could talk about this too:

Yeah, it’s pricey. Still one of the best pumpkin beers on the market, but you can’t go wrong with anything Troegs puts out. Tends to be pretty reasonably priced too.

My Badgers were overrated, yet again. Time to enjoy some more pumpkin beer and drown my sorrows after that debacle and reading @canderson’s post.

The land numbers are almost as bad. August was the 440th consecutive month above average globally. Think about flipping a coin and it landing heads 440 or 543 times in a row. Absurd.

As for the rain, the NWS has upped that to a near certainty in these parts. Not sure I’m buying the inch and a half the NAM wants to sell me, but a half inch seems like a possibility.

Euro is still there, but of course we don’t know what happens after 240 and that’s when the good stuff comes back on the GFS.

Looks like the GFS is back to letting the good guys win (sort of). There are still hot days, but that’s not bad in a progressive pattern. The magnitude of the heat it shows over the Midwest is nothing to sneeze at (103 in Madison, 105 in Des Moines and 108 in Omaha would all shatter all-time September records), but it never makes it here in record form. We’ve seen this pattern from the GFS time and time again this summer, and it’s always been overdone, both here and in the areas of the Midwest where it’s shown ridiculous heat.

Flow is a bit more zonal and ridge axis is a little more west, but there’s some agreement.

EC at 240 looks like it’s going to align very closely with the GFS at 240.

Only reasons I can think of that none of that stuff has been investigated is that either it would be nearly impossible to prove, or that the general public would accuse them of cooking the books and rewriting history. I hope it’s the former and not the latter.

The 4 warmest Septembers in Pittsburgh in the past 90 years all occurred between 2015-2019. None of them make the top 10 overall.

This is one of those rare months where PIT’s records are above MDT’s. Only day that hasn’t hit 90 is the 29th, and it’s hit 89 multiple times. Only 3 of the daily records have occurred in the past 65 years (2 in 2017 and one in 2018 during that period in 2018 that I believe PIT was reading erroneously high) and 17 of them occurred in the 19th century.