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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    It doesn’t surprise or impress me anymore, we’ve had it 6 out of the last 7 Septembers. It’s our new normal.
  2. TimB
    Yeah, 83/69 at PIT and MDT at 18z on D10. Not what I’m looking for.
  3. TimB
    DPs are also fairly oppressive for much of that period.
  4. TimB
    Yeah, briefly goes back to zonal. Let’s see if it builds the ridge towards the end.
  5. TimB
    What’s the spread? Tampa by more than a touchdown, I assume.
  6. TimB
    Agreed, it’s a tough decision, whether to root for Brady or Dallas tonight. But when the Cowboys lose, America wins.
  7. TimB
    Ew. Brady.
  8. TimB
    At least the DPs are comfortable.
  9. TimB
    And then there’s this crap:
  10. TimB
    To me, that’s the 1991-2020 normal, which is like a degree and a half above the 1981-2010 normal due to the ridiculously warm Septembers we had in the second half of the 2010s, which is exactly what I’m grumbling about.
  11. TimB
    Beyond frustrating. Why can’t we ever get fall weather in fall anymore?
  12. TimB
    Of course it’s a little more complicated than that. It’s more like rolling a die in today’s climate, where rolling a 1 means below normal temps and rolling a 2-6 means above normal. Rolling a 1 for October doesn’t make rolling a 1 for November any less likely. That said, I would venture to guess that each roll is at least slightly dependent on the one before it, but I would guess that a below normal October would make a below normal November MORE likely rather than less.
  13. TimB
    To a certain extent, I agree, except never-ending summer temps in September and October make me angry and irritable, and getting below normal temps in September and October doesn’t make it any less likely that we’ll get them in winter. Just like flipping a coin and it landing heads doesn’t make it any more or less likely that the next flip lands heads.
  14. TimB
    Be interesting to see how it all evolves. I see a lot of heat in the eastern 2/3 of the country, but the GFS mutes it somewhat and the other models come down a bit. Getting through the first 11 days of the month without even one positive departure will be a big win.
  15. TimB
    My understanding is there are 3 categories: above normal, normal, and below normal. So it’s probably 60/30/10 or something.
  16. TimB
    This is ugly: Majority of the US under high probabilities of above normal now.
  17. TimB
  18. TimB
    You’ll still have a hard time convincing me that we have much more than 73 years of data that isn’t at the very least somewhat suspect. September 1881 had the same average temperature as July 2020? I mean, come on.
  19. TimB
    Oops, posted this in the summer thread. This belongs in the fall thread. Very puzzling, the last sentence of this morning’s forecast discussion weighed against the last few days of the zone forecast:
  20. TimB
    Probably semi-comparable to Feb. 2015.
  21. TimB
    I’d more than willingly trade a +8 Sept/Oct for a -8 DJF.
  22. TimB
    I don’t see a -8 in anyone’s future, even if the GFS pans out.
  23. TimB
    GFS is back to wanting to shut off the heat before it gets too ugly. I see nothing of the sort on the EC or CMC.
  24. TimB
    I see the guy used Morgantown, Erie, Wheeling and Dubois, but not Pittsburgh. But I would say lows, at least at Pittsburgh. June was +1.7 for highs and +2.0 for lows, July was -1.0 for highs and -0.2 for lows, and August was +1.9 for highs and +3.1 for lows.
  25. TimB
    Interesting. Thanks for sharing!
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