TimB

So here’s a topic for discussion: if the average high for a particular date is 82 and the GFS models a high of 113 at 4.5 days out, then the actual high is 88, how egregious of a modeling error is that? I mean the GFS is modeling above normal temps, and above normal temps may verify.

It’s highly unlikely to happen, as there’s no support for it, but this is the GFS showing something only 105 hours out that is way out of sync with other models (and 20+ degrees above the official NWS forecast for those areas). As for the magnitude of what it’s depicting, verbatim those temps are 6-7 degrees higher at Omaha and Lincoln, NE than any September day on record.

Beyond that, is something bad running through the GFS algorithm when it’s putting out these numbers for the Central US for D5? That’s some 10-20 degrees higher than other models. Maybe our hot stretch is error carried forward from this:

I feel like I used to be able to get it from Wunderground back in the day but that was a long time ago. I don’t use that site near as much ever since TWC took it over and it went to crap. As for the programming language stuff, you might as well be speaking Russian to me.

So the question boils down to: has a 15 day stretch (if we take the GFS verbatim) where the dewpoint drops below 60 on just 7 days been common and normal enough historically in mid-September to not be irritated with the endless humidity? My gut instinct would be no, but I could be wrong. The other question, of course, is should I be concerning myself with something the GFS is showing today when it’s been flip-flopping even more than its normal high standard for flip-flopping? Might be more prudent to wait and see what happens and put off my grouchiness about endless summer heat and humidity until/unless it actually comes to fruition.

Would be interesting to compare September DPs at PIT or MDT over the past 30 years and see how much of an increase there has or hasn’t been in the number of days where the DP exceeded 60 or 65 or 70 or whatever. Maybe my mind just romanticizes Septembers past and it isn’t justified.

I think I have a 9 day stretch where the DP doesn’t drop below 60 (there might be one panel where it gets down to 59). Yes, I’m with you on the idea that it’s ridiculous to expect that the temperature not get to 80 for the entirety of September, or to expect days and days with highs in the 60s or 50s. But I don’t think it’s ridiculous to expect that there won’t be a week-plus stretch of relentless summer heat/humidity this late in the year.

You guys fare a bit better than I do. I think I saw a 10 day stretch where I get to 80 on 7 or 8 days. And a lot of those days also come with DPs in the 60s.

What about the rest of the run?

Can we accurately classify that as “MDT doing MDT things”?

We can’t expect to get through September without hitting 80, and a day or two of low 80s can be managed without a/c, but I’m still hoping against hope that the 2015-2019 version of our Septembers isn’t our permanent new normal, and that last September wasn’t just a fluke. Also, if you go by the GFS, the last 2 runs have had Sunday afternoon at 84/65 and 82/65, so it’s not necessarily the case that it’ll be lower humidity.

Correct. Happy Labor Day to all. It was a near-perfect weekend on the weather front, as far as I’m concerned. Completes the trifecta of below normal holiday weekends this summer.

GFS isn’t buying what the EC is selling, at all. 18z is still on the idea of a lot of perfect September weather.

Don’t if you can avoid it. It’s gross.

Next week gets ugly on the EC. At least 3 days where reaching or exceeding 90 is very much in play. In mid-September. Hope it’s wrong.

EC and CMC still leaning towards letting the bad guys win, and the CPC 8-14 day outlook is still 50% chance of above normal for pretty much all of PA, so it’s not all good news.

Imagine if someone had told me 48 hours ago that this map would exist today:

There’s still a warm period in front of it, and we won’t know until late in the week what the EC and CMC will do during that time period. What’s more likely, +8 or -8?

Love watching that 540 line cross PA. Other goodies include this:

I could talk about beer all night, but we could talk about this too:

Yeah, it’s pricey. Still one of the best pumpkin beers on the market, but you can’t go wrong with anything Troegs puts out. Tends to be pretty reasonably priced too.

My Badgers were overrated, yet again. Time to enjoy some more pumpkin beer and drown my sorrows after that debacle and reading @canderson’s post.

The land numbers are almost as bad. August was the 440th consecutive month above average globally. Think about flipping a coin and it landing heads 440 or 543 times in a row. Absurd.

As for the rain, the NWS has upped that to a near certainty in these parts. Not sure I’m buying the inch and a half the NAM wants to sell me, but a half inch seems like a possibility.

Euro is still there, but of course we don’t know what happens after 240 and that’s when the good stuff comes back on the GFS.