wx_observer

I heard one on the back porch today. Didn't see it, but I know it was there.

Fairly brutal BOX update...since I didn't see it posted here Well, I`ll get right to the point with this update, there`s been a big change to the forecast this afternoon based on a remarkably late but notable trend in the 12z/18z guidance which now keeps the bulk of the snow centered over the south coast of southern New England. This change is due not only to a southern shift in the track of the low but also a notable shift in the 500 mb trough; with a slower and less amplified solution and the northern and southern stream energy failing to phase/strengthen as they pass through the region. This shift has notably moved the zone of mid level frontogenesis to the south, and since we typically see the best forcing/banding to the northwest of the maxima this places southeast MA/Cape Cod and southern RI in the bullseye. BUFKIT soundings do indicate decent omega (forcing for lift) within the dendritic snow growth zone further north into MA, so we should still see some decent snowfall there, but the maxima looks to be south and east. While this is remarkably late in the game for such a relatively big shift, nearly all of the 12Z guidance including the 12Z ECMWF, 18Z NAM, 18Z HRRR and more show it. The new forecast calls for a swath of 6 to 10 inches across southeast MA/RI with a pretty tight gradient to the north down to potentially nothing in far northwest MA. Uncertainty remains high, however, given marginal temperatures at onset (though good dynamics should help cool the column to overcome this) and potential for a shift back north with overnight guidance. This southern shift brings slightly cooler air which may help mitigate snow loading risk a bit, but a wet, and rather heavy snow continues to be expected. Blizzard conditions are possible, especially on the outer Cape where the strongest winds are expected, with gusts has high as 55 mph possible. Elsewhere winds will be gusty, blowing 30- 40 mph over southeast MA and along the immediate coasts of MA and RI. The Winter Storm Warning has been expanded into Cape Cod and the islands while it has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory for western and north central MA.

Oof. From solidly in the 12-18" in Worcester to this? Part of me wishes I was a fly on the wall when they had to make this call over at NWS. About 12 hours before the storm, no less.

I can't imagine they've had many (if any) snow days this year. Why not give the kids a real snow day? Who knows when they'll see it again.

12-18 seems pretty aggressive, doesn't it? Did I miss the temps going down enough for there to be a bigger fluff factor? I thought this was expected to be more like white concrete than powder.

What's so odd is that most of them didn't come through to put an end to a stretch of really hot, humid 90+ degree weather. That's usually what drives most of the severe storms around here, if it's not a remnant of a hurricane anyway. Actually, that is more what it reminds me of. How a transitioning tropical storm might kick off severe weather.

And another TOR warning...looks like what started in Scituate is planning to end in Scituate....

That TOR warning appears to have a confirmed tornado with it, according to the text in the warning

Something looks like it wants to get going near Barre

Wish granted...

And fairly long lived too

They took the other MD down altogether. I wonder if they're updating it.

The wind really picked up here in Central MA. If clouds could get a speeding ticket, today would fill the end of month quotas. I wouldn't want to be under any weakened trees with how saturated the ground is, even with the non-thunderstorm winds out there right now.

Here too

And they posted a separate MD for SCT / NY / NJ. Would have probably made a single MD for the whole area if the threat profile was the same.

Looks like you have some additional hose there--is there a reason you didn't pull the hose as far away from the house as possible?

Is that area in red at highest risk for flash flooding?

Was kind of surprised to not see this get warned.

Not sure I understand the rationale for those map projections used by fox 25 or NECN.

Getting a bit darker now in ORH and snow picking up. 32 F light-moderate snow.

Looks like it captured the location of that dry slot really well though

This dry slot is brutal...do we get in on the back end that's in NY state on its way out?

Gah--ORH getting in on that dry slot

Are my eyes deceiving me--or is that double low actually panning out.

the metamorphosis of ineedsnow into ineedbulldozerandchainsawnow