SnowenOutThere

Yet another example of rapid intensification/unforcasted intensification.

Had to go to the A meet today and I think I am melting.

I got 0.0 so I think I win.

Had my IM tough meet on Monday, it was ok and I got third in my age group but my turns were not ideal at best. Would of rather had some storms but you get what you get.

Watched a cloud build to my south and now has dropped some super light rain, crazy how quick it built but no real storms nearby except to my north by a bit. Wondering if outflow from those developing storms help this cloud to rise so fast. Hope we can get more activity though.

Storms firing right along and in front of the outflow boundary and seeing clouds build around me. Maybe there is still hope for us DC crew.

Hey at least short pump won’t get fringed.

This thread is already so depressing, someone should start a panic room.

0.7 ish inches of rain here, got a thunderstorm that put down around 0.64 then got a band of rain overnight (I would assume anyways) and got an additional 0.07. Saw clouds exit out to the east/north this morning and that was that.

Definitely something although the rotation is not too tight… yet.

Some good outer bands (I guess that’s what they are) starting to fire one already severe warned.

Man I miss tracking winter weather but this is the next best thing. The fact this thread has three pages shows how desperate we are all to track something, it is fun though.

I do need the rain and I think a lot of the form does so lets hope we get something out of this.

I might be bad at forecasting but even I know that this is a very scary looking model run for areas around DC and northeast.

What is this storm a cockroach, it just refuses to die.

Thought I would make a thread with the Gfs and some of the hurricane models shifting west with the track.

Because why not? Discussion and observations.

Happy birthday, thanks for all of the posts on the form and good luck with the storm.

Good luck.

I actually forecasted something right for once, I think that's one out of 20 correct predictions for this storm which is still somehow better than my average forecasts ratio for snow storms last winter.

If you don’t mind it would be nice if you could video or maybe take pictures of the storm while the storm really gets going and then post them here, it’s always interesting to see.

Is that an eye I spy?

This is going to be an actual post instead of my other posts that probably belong in banter. I was looking at the radar this morning and thought the latest convection was interesting if not a bit worrying. That also combined with the radar now being in usable meant we can get a better view of the convection which makes it easier to see the finer details. After looking at the radar I think it is possible that this storm could intensify rapidly at some point today. If we look at the photo on the right taken around 6am we can see that there is little convection in the blue circled area and even less in the light black area which is where the blue area rotates to. This is the area to my knowledge closest to the actual center due to how the bands curve around it. Not that impressive looking for an inner band. This is before the convection burst that occurs from 6 30 to 7am which you can see on the satellite. The image below shows the convection that was in the blue circled on the left photo into its new position which is also in a blue circle. The convection is now much more intense and starting to rap around the center due to the convection band being in a rounded shape. This shows to me that the storm might be trying to make an eyewall or just an convection core near the center. This combined with that convection core undergoing strengthening leads me to believe that there is a chance this storm rapidly intensifies later today or currently with that band. That combined with the band next to it being more filled in to the south makes me think this storm might be undergoing an organization process. By the time I finish writing this it is probably irrelevant but thanks for reading.

I second the 6z HWRF

Found the totally legit eye.