SnowenOutThere

Geez I apparently need to take more breaks from this place! I come back and everyone's saying how we are looking good. I generally agree, though I'm not great at reading the long range pattern it seems good, or at the very least not a shit the blinds pattern at all. Even way out in la la land that we should have decent enough cold air thanks to a workable upper air pattern. Of course, its all very northern stream dominated and we generally appear maybe a bit too far south but considering the crazy trends we've seen so far this year who knows!

Its like trying to analyze something from the JMA

Tbh I think it might be my proudest joke I've made on the forum. Though I'm not sure I ever really bought into the full doom and gloom we had in here for a little bit. I know its bad practice to use the OP runs but aside from a couple days they never really showed a horrific setup. It always seemed like last year(s) when the ensembles showed a great pattern and the OPs were meh to downright bad the ens ended up adjusting to that reality. I do wonder if there is some science behind the possibility of OP runs aiding in pattern change analysis or if its just confirmation bias.

reminds me of how before I left Cville you could see snow on the tops of the mountains all around town but there was nothing on the ground at all in the university itself.

We can't even do shit the blinds patterns properly anymore

I think at the very least this winter will be okay. It's not often that we've tracked 4 legit threats for VA by mid month, alongside that we've had some favorable teleconnections and a general willingness to have cold air break south since fall. No matter what we've already avoided a completely nonexistent winter!

I’m out only 5-10 miles east of you and didn’t even hit .5. I really can’t complain as everything’s coated nicely with the temp dropping.

That’s a depressing picture

Temp is 33 degrees for me and no accumulation on any surface, I think we may be quite cooked. I won’t be setting a second alarm for tonight.

If you look at recent radar frames you can begin to see the backfilling of precip as these forces become more active

The frontal dynamics and the fact we are in the RER quadrant of a jet streak which induces WAA and subsequent divergence aloft which results in low level convergence and lift. This lift causes air parcels to rise to the LCL (lifted condensation level) which forms the cloud base, subsequently, the parcel rises through the positive dynamics and the moist lapse rate. After that we get snowfall from the aggregation of flakes in the atmosphere. Any more questions?

Returned home and imo I think where we got that initial band will probably do very well with this event. As for the rest of us those couple crazy HRRR runs were so insane because they had that band reach southeastward so we’ll need to watch if that manages to happen

On the way back home (and to snow!)

Dunno if anyone posted the RAP but it looks pretty good for all of us

Of course, it is the long range OP GFS but it keeps things active with real chances during the Christmas period. Its first window is now within 10 days away.

I mean I think this is a bit worse though not majorly so. It has weaker temp advection so the first band fails to take off till a little bit later.

Not catastrophically so. In fact it may just be a bit later in general.

Fair warning, I do not think the latest HRRR will be quite as good as the 20z

Oh I just learned about all those fun things, especially the sub vs super geostrophic wind balance and how that leads to the Jet behavior and associated convergence and divergence alongside baroclinicity of shortwaves passing through isotherms.

Dog, Imma be so real with you I haven't been paying attention to this storm till literally around noon today. Yesterday I wrote a 10 page paper in a day (nailed it btw) and the day before that I did my atmosphere and weather final (crushed it as well) so I have not had time to go into the dynamics of this stuff sadly. Though from a very quick overview the latest HRRR has the trough a little bit deeper and position a bit souther which helps get everything moving quicker. A consequence of this change is that positive temp advection is more favored for our area (which encourages diffusion aloft and surface lift). Here is the 20z HRRR temp advection vs the 18

If this goes well for our area real credit has got to be given to the RGEM and Canadian models. The 18z keeps the good vibes going as well

That the model shows lightning flash density. To be honest I have no idea what makes lightning happen (neither did my professor the best we have is a separation of negatively charged graupel and ice crystals in a convection cell). Though I'm sure the strong lift throughout the column and positive temp advection in the 700mb layer have something to do with it.

It would even get snow to my current location in Charlottesville; though I think I won't be making that risk and I'll drive back tonight. Besides, I have been a good luck charm so far this winter and thought I'd help you guys out.

Keeps thundersnow dreams alive as well