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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    I actually think you were initially right, at least for the 12z with its 21 hour precip panel being a shellacking.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Looking at the 12z NAM im not so sure I'm seeing what you're seeing. The precip field looks further south...
  3. SnowenOutThere
    That may be the stupidest schedule I have seen in my life, but thank you for it as I now have complete justification to skip because I don't want to spend 2 hours in AP Capstone.
  4. SnowenOutThere
    36.7 and dropping near Reston, fcps with a 3 hour early release but may just be “sick” and go on a hike down near Front Royal
  5. SnowenOutThere
    Well to be fair with all of the 1/6 comparisons something that may be in this storms favor is better lift in the DGZ which really held 1/6 back from achieving much beyond its low end forecasts
  6. SnowenOutThere
    I know everyone is excited over the NAM (and we should be!) as it provides a good high range output, but the 12z HRRR I think provides a decent example of what a low end "bust" output would be for the region (and even then its not that bad).
  7. SnowenOutThere
    Not sure if I’m late but winter storm warnings are up for some of the southern counties
  8. SnowenOutThere
    12z NAM has a solid thump of sleet for Thursday as well
  9. SnowenOutThere
    One thing I dislike about the NAMs compared to their 18z runs is the earlier shutoff of precip as the coastal low exists faster.
  10. SnowenOutThere
  11. SnowenOutThere
    3k NAM looks better too btw
  12. SnowenOutThere
    Still has amazing lift in the DGZ too
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Has widespread 30s at Precip onset during midday Tuesday so I doubt much "wasted" QDF
  14. SnowenOutThere
    It looks colder too @NorthArlington101
  15. SnowenOutThere
    that is 18z
  16. SnowenOutThere
    Seems like there is way more moisture with this NAM run, I love the NAM when it does it's NAM things.
  17. SnowenOutThere
    Considering it has us nearly 7-10 degrees above other guidance I think its safe to disregard it.
  18. SnowenOutThere
    Next storm may continue 6z's solution of having some ice before a switch to rain.
  19. SnowenOutThere
    Agree on this, the QDF field just doesn't have the same northward extent but its jackpot zones stay around the same.
  20. SnowenOutThere
    Seems a smidge further south but not colder
  21. SnowenOutThere
    Seems you found an interloper from Canada
  22. SnowenOutThere
    This appears to impact the Thursday storm more, and FWIW makes it less energetic though not enough to save us
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Surface wise yes H5 looks markedly different out west though. No idea what it means, thats for someone smarter than me to parse.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    GFS is running, good luck to all
  25. SnowenOutThere
    NAM seems like it would keep precip around for an extended time even after wave two, which may lend itself to a decent snow to ice event before the thermals are completely destroyed by the Thursday storm
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