WXNewton

If you had to extend this over Catawba County, would you be 4-8 there too?

Euro,GFS,icon,nam, RRFS 6z

This past weekend storm, it showed a lack in precip when compared to the globals. The actual QPF was a lot closer to what the NAM was showing 24 hrs before the storm than what any of the globals had.

GEFS is locked in the past 3 runs and closely resemble the op as well.

Last 3 runs of GFS...pretty locked in!

06 EPS another step our way! Also shows that precip maxima on the 06z Euro AI in the same general area.

06z EPS vs 00z EPS

Nam, 3km looked to be on track for a much better run than 12km.

NBM...

18z ICON was a good hit this evening for our area

One interesting thing to note, over the past 3 runs in MBY the GFS AI and EURO AI have only made small adjustments in QPF in the amount of .05-.08 either up or down. Where-as the OP EURO and OP GFS over the past three runs have had more wild swings in QPF of .22"-.27". When looking at the ensembles for both EURO and EURO AI as well as GFS those QPF swings are much smoother and the difference is not as much of a wild swing as the OPs have been showing from time to time. Thinking about the models this way and really digging into the ensembles has helped me to not ride each single OP run for the potential wild ups and downs that it may show. All and all after looking at many different averages and taking the fairly rock steady ensembles into account I am starting to feel confident that my area will see somewhere between .35"-.45" of precip and factoring in about a 16-17:1 ratio, amounts should be in the range of 6"-7".

The only model that didn't follow the further east trend was the GFS AI, I wonder how it's been performing?

Yeah, I was more focusing on the footprint of the storm, I have to look closely at it to make sure it wasn't the run before lol.

Remained consistent!

The trend on the GFS AI is really impressive...