Interesting the different shapes to lake effect/lake enhancement. Almost like there's fingers of lake enhanced snow so between the fingers there's virtually no snow.
Welp, instead of any positive shift north the last 36hrs, every model shifted south. So much for cautious optimism. Maybe we'll be able to smell the snow.
I feel that. Today's theme is just minor adjustments everywhere tbh. Still could see a surprise since I think some of the features are still up in the Arctic.
Was just thinking about all the budget cuts to the NOAA and how it impacts modeling. I wonder what verification scores are now vs previous years (winter and summer comparisons). Feels like modeling is pretty bad.
So you're saying now until the start of the system it won't continue to baby step better, upping snow totals each new run (jk but I really miss those days)
Sampling of the Baja low not included in the NAM (doesn't matter cuz it sucks anyways) but good for other models. So that won't explain any changes seen down there.
Looks like some sondes made the NAM after all
https://x.com/i/status/2014131199120162993
Um guys. The latest UKIE... Hard to ignore that. 500mb is just crazy. (Ninja'd cuz didn't even see the random lake effect this model loves to always wrongly include)
Recon missions with better sampling too will be super meaningful. Regardless of outcome here, very interesting set-up. The South will get demolished regardless.