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Jt17

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Everything posted by Jt17

  1. Jt17
    I think part of it is that the front end thump should have some high ratios and people in here assume that since sleet shows up that the whole storm is warm now. The onset is going to be high ratio snow and could pile up more quickly than people think. .
  2. Jt17
    lol people see what they want to see .
  3. Jt17
    Rosy retrospection .
  4. Jt17
    Looks more like most guidance than NAM does .
  5. Jt17
    lol wow .
  6. Jt17
    Nah. NAM is overdoing the sleet the last 2 runs. FYI it's basically the same as last run not worse contrary to the comments I'm seeing. .
  7. Jt17
    A little better result, tho I don't know how it evolved since it's an off hour... .
  8. Jt17
    Euro AI refuses to change .
  9. Jt17
    Ukie is so sure there is a dry slot over nyc 3 runs in a row. .
  10. Jt17
    18z is a waste of time imo. 12z and 0z usually tell the picture. I liked 12z today - hopefully 0z is less all over the place .
  11. Jt17
    I could be wrong but pretty sure they share a lot of the same physics .
  12. Jt17
    EPS looks a lot snowier than Euro OP, somebody correct me if I'm wrong... .
  13. Jt17
    Nice, I told my colleagues 10-15 with the lower end being with earlier sleet and higher end being with later sleet. Now they're gonna think I'm a wizard when they get their winter storm warning alert. .
  14. Jt17
    Looking very similar to NAM .
  15. Jt17
    It's a big improvement .
  16. Jt17
    lol .6 for nyc and 1.1-1.3 all around.. ok .
  17. Jt17
    The 9.6 inches was until 7 PM *Sunday* from Upton, while Mt. Holly showed around 15 inches to 7 AM *Monday*. Upton later posted a similar map with around 15 out to 7 AM Monday. 12-18 has been the theme from most forecasts. Thus far they aren't buying the sleet being as big of a problem plain and simple. Could change it course .
  18. Jt17
    Yes and gently trending towards a colder solution like GFS... .
  19. Jt17
    No it's not warlock. It's 10-15 .
  20. Jt17
    Mount Holly's forecast goes out 12 more hours 7 AM Monday - Upton ends at 7 PM Sunday Main reason for the diff. They actually align. .
  21. Jt17
    They like the GFS .
  22. Jt17
    Insanely quick compared to everything else? .
  23. Jt17
    How does it not agree? Similar QPF and looks cold enough for all snow from what I can tell. .
  24. Jt17
    12z NAM and RGEM look further south with the sleet than 6z fwiw comparing f78 to f84 .
  25. Jt17
    More gfs like .
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