Jt17

For sure there could be some sharp cutoffs so a 10-20 mile east shift in the axis of heavy snows (like on this run compared to last) could be frustrating.

lol yea sure looks like it caved to the GFS

The main difference wasn't track like people are saying here, it was a little less robust of a system and it moved a little quicker.

00z: 18z:

No, compared to the end of the last op run it's actually ever so slightly west. The low is slightly weaker and the precip field is a little smaller though so I imagine the output will be a bit less, but it was still a good hit. Just noise at this point.

worked last night, keep up the good work!

Lol so many dumb comments. Today Canadian trended slightly back West, Euro trended slightly west with a bomb solution supported by a very confident ensemble and the NAM, GFS slightly trended WEST a bit today from where it was last night (though people can't remember 1 run to the next so they think it didn't) and the UKIE has been OTS nearly every run. That's where we're at you weirdos. Nothing really happened except we've gotten more evidence that a powerful storm with serious potential for our area is developing.

I know everybody's hopes were up for the GFS to tick west, so when it didn't it was disappointing. That being said, it was really just a minor wobble east. If it jumped significantly east, that would be cause for alarm, but for now I would treat it as a nothingburger.

That's a sound strategy 5 days and more, but I think starting now it's pretty fun to follow along intently. Although, if you care about your loved ones it's probably not the healthiest way to go about it.

Ah feels like the old days in here. Joy, disappointment, anxiety. Hanging on to every model run. Love it.

0z: 18z: forget the precip field depiction for now - the new run is 2 mb deeper and a very small amount east, it's pretty negligible changes which is normal 3.5-4 days out from a storm.

It ends up being fairly similar to the previous run, perhaps 15-20 miles east, nothing alarming, but didn't cave to the Euro as of yet.

except the NAM which was slow and tucked

Yea it is out, but on the other hand it's slightly west of the previous run, thus a trend towards the euro not the gfs like you had said, so you're still just trying to get a rise out of people.

Yea, Icon its deeper and more west than previous run, decent trend on a fairly useless model lol

I think this is actually a decent bit west from it's previous run? I can't tell on tropical tidbits yet.

Number 1 seller around these parts

Starts early Sat on here would prob end Sunday morning

Yea but 90% of Rjay's messages are informative with a hint of weenie. Which is my preferred message type.

yowza

These write ups are awesome

Would love to see the GFS be a little more amped and a little more tucked next run, but superstitiously I hope it doesn't look too good. Lol

NYC metro area is 20+mil people on it's own lol

I feel like a drug addict asking, but... anybody got the EPS? *scratches neck, avoids eye contact

Slightly west and 4mb deeper than 90 last time. I think it's just the surface depiction doesn't look as intense, but obviously not something to worry about, especially on an 18z run