Jt17
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Everything posted by Jt17
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I think from hours 33-42 while it's struggling with the double barrel low look we're being wiped of what could be a decent amount of QPF to the west. If the west low is consolidated the whole time we get something like... the NAM.
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My message is now being taken out of context. I was responding to somebody about the previous run.
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yea agree - well it essentially folded here. If it gets rid of the double barrel look like the Nam and Euro have essentially done, but keeps that track, it will be an absolute monster for NYC metro
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I just mean the GFS - it's very east still of the other guidance.
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24+++++
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Yea just looking for another tick west at this point, let it cave when the snow is already falling like it often does!
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Pretty west of it's previous run, ya?
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The Kuchera ratios taken verbatim is never a good idea. But when they're really insistent on strong ratios, there's usually a reason. I know a lot of folks take a blend of 10-1 and Kuchera and I think that's generally a good way to look at it. But because of that I think posting both makes sense.
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That's part of why the forum has a chance at decent ratios for a change.
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It's hard to say - this is a very cold storm. We're used to mixing at the coast, etc. with our big storms. That ain't it this time.
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These 2 posts came in, right after the other. Posting 10-1 is just as silly as Kuchera. The ratios will be different all over the map and in a storm this cold almost universally better than 10-1. In parts about Kuchera shows, in others slightly better and others slightly worse. And I'm not positive, but I'm pretty sure Kuchera accounts for wind diminishing the effects of ratios. Can people stop acting like they know better than the physics and algorithms of these models?
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Not to be greedy... but another 30-40 mile shift and we could get a foot of snow from western NJ to the tip of Long Island... am I asking for too much?
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Yes w/ratios, but that salmon color is 2 ft and it's brushing up along the outer edges of queens. Just about the width of a boro from 2ft of snow in central park on that NAM run.
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Totally eyeballing it but it seems to scoot the precip field 30-40 miles west and it's more intense overall...
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I'll keep it simple, through hr 24 it's closer to the coast
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When there's 2 clusters with the op running between the two it's certainly informative.
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The winds aren't going to be nearly as intense on the northwest extent of the decent liquid equivalent. There WILL be ratios. People 100% exaggerate the OTHER direction on this too. If you get .8 inches of liquid and 12 inches of snow... just remember you don't get to be happy about it because you didn't get your 1 inch of liquid. (I'm just playing)
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I bet GEFS has some goodies from its ensemble members.
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So the whole model suite basically shifted west and most seem to produce deeper LP. I believe that might be called... a trend
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I think mesoscale models might soon be able to help us sort out this convection sloppiness
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Yea but it's starting to give more emphasis than it was before to the western barrel...
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Cavey cave has begun
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Is ICON related to GFS? They seem to sort of spit out similar solutions
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It's too early for that under normal/any circumstances
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Rgem has the double barrel feature low and less intense LP, whereas the NAM basically consolidated the lows into one was more westerly focused with the low and deeper... and the RGEM still produced a bigger snow output north and west. I think the NAMs solution would produce a lot more for NYC and NW
