Jt17
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Everything posted by Jt17
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Bleeding stopped, need the west trend to commence
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I mentioned GEFS trended west and got crickets
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My bad. That's good to know. It did look ridiculous after all.
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That nam run wasn't included in its guidance. It came after 3:20. That being said the other mesoscale model with any legitimacy the rgem didn't fall apart like the nam at all. In fact the rgem was a little better than it's previous run.
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It's because one of the 2 major weather models relied on most heavily to forecast weather in the US is still showing over a foot for most of Long Island.
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It didn't shift east either.
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GEFS trended "west" - quotes because it was super tiny lol
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It still has that double barrel low thing going on but I think the models will resolve this eventually. Choosing the left side would be ideal for us lol
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It really didn't man, maybe the depicted precip field did slightly, but the actual low didn't and H5 even looked better than last run.
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Which is why meteorologists continue to give credence to the possibility that this could substantially change
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Right but the positive outlook would be that the GFS looks like it might have stopped with the east trend.
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Looks the same as 12z, it still wouldn't take major changes from this run to end up with a major storm.
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GFS running...
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Not being facetious when I say this, but they are always getting new data. Thus we shouldn't be surprised to see waffling around. Especially in this set up.
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can't remember this NOT happening
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I can't imagine it's going to hop around like this, all of the models seem to be shooting darts with the location of the LP
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18z nam at hour 63: then at 66:
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The models are really struggling with where the LP should be focused.
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I think you or somebody else said this earlier. Then the EURO came out and it was stuffed with people. I guarantee at 4:45 it will be packed in here.
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the Euro on it's previous 06z run and 12z run and NAM on it's 12z model run did a similar thing with the low depiction. Hopefully it's just temporary noise that resolves over the next few runs and gets the weenies of the ledge.
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Now would be a perfect time for NAM to continue to mess with us
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Yea I saw it close off initially and was ready to celebrate
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lol I saw that... I feel like that's part of why there's that double barrel feature in the op. I think it's confused
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Pretty proportional shift to the op
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What have you noticed out west that has you more optimistic?
