Jt17
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Everything posted by Jt17
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Not along the coast and the city, east that's for sure. Not sure where you are though. .
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Everything looks great in the city. Just got back. Def an inch or two more in JC/Hoboken though. .
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Well actually I was wrong I was thinking of it's earlier runs last night with nothing. It did cave big time this afternoon, however most of the diff from this run is it loses about 2 inches from snow that already has fallen. .
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I know it's hard to keep up with every model, so just a heads up this just moved way west. Canadian models have been out of sync with short term guidance all week. So this is it catching up. Just follow HRRR. It's nailing it. .
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Caving... just a wee bit late .
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The snow literally started sticking 2-3 hours before any reasonably informed poster in this thread expected. We're in good shape. .
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Been a few runs since then tho they only go to 18. But if you add what has fallen and what would come next on the most recent runs it would match 18z still. Maybe even better .
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Canada has hated this thing since the onset. .
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You realize it just moved back like 75 miles west right lol - gfs deserves kudos, it had a raging blizzard and kept and other models had literally 0 inches on runs 48 hours ago. .
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I might sound like a broken record, but this is also going to start missing hours of accumulations as we keep looking at these models, so please for the love god people don't freak out .
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Also, it's going to start missing hours of snow on these totals (prob half an inch already on this run) .
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Snow sticking to even grass or dirt in the city before it turns dark is a good sign for accumulations. .
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Just a lot of support from better near term guidance showing the major global models were too east .
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Awesome! .
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Ratios is a big part of it. People in here always dismiss them. This will have them up north where you are. And further south and southeast there's more QPF in general to get them to their forecast. And then banding is sure to set up somewhere relentlessly allowing select areas make it to the high ends of their forecast. .
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HRRR keeps ticking up... .
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Visibility down and starting to stick in Jersey City a bit. Def earlier than I expected it to stick to surfaces. .
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19.8 for NYC accounting for CP's cooking the books for gambling sites. .
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Gets to 11.6 at the end it's run. At the same time on 12z run was at 10.2 and finished with 15.5. Good sign. .
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If everybody just focused on what the short range models are showing (while snow is literally flying from the sky mind you), they'd be way less anxious, than worrying about the GFS. .
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This happens every-time. I wasn't expecting to even see steady snowflakes until 2-3 PM. Been going since 10 AM. (Albeit white rain) .
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Much bigger flakes in Jersey City all of a sudden. Sticking to some bushes lol .
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Well for context at the same hour on the last full run 12z it at 8.6 inches in NYC and now it's up to 9.8 inches at 15z. 12z ended with 15+ inches. .
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Yes to 2.2 inches of QPF for nyc lol - I think 1.4-2 inches of QPF is a pretty safe bet for the area. Banding and ratios will determine the best spots. .
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Only the Globals are doing this and they usually do this right as the storm starts. Here's a nice new snow map. Maybe it can help people off the ledge. .
