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Jt17

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Everything posted by Jt17

  1. Jt17
    I know, but the comments every time somebody mentions ratios or posts a Kuchera map is ridiculous. Not the same type of storm at all but La Guardia got 9 inches of snow on .3 QPF earlier this month. ratios are a THING.
  2. Jt17
    No no, haven't you heard... there's no such thing as ratios. Snow only falls at 10-1 NO MATTER WHAT.
  3. Jt17
    Yep I think it could be one of those where the outer boroughs surprise some peoeps... so far looking nice.
  4. Jt17
    We're neighbors I'm here in Flushing. Def coming down pretty nicely with about 1.5 inches as well.
  5. Jt17
    RAP would make a lot of the eternal pessimist crew look bad in here lol
  6. Jt17
    Nam looks good at hour 9, not east, but slightly north with a higher pressure and slightly lower pressure. Then at hour 12 it gets back on the double barrel train and gets sheared apart. If it really is just chasing convection like some mets think, we're in better business than we think/it looks like.
  7. Jt17
    NAM should be interesting lol
  8. Jt17
    Amen.
  9. Jt17
  10. Jt17
    6-8 is 10-1 ratios. Bone cold storm through the entire column will have ratios. The Kuchera are likely closer to reality than 10-1
  11. Jt17
    I know but it actually got rid of the double low for longer this run than last. Up to hour 18 there was an inch more snow as a result even though the "west" low (and the only low at this point) was centered slightly east to previous runs.
  12. Jt17
    Nam looked a little more organized through hour 18 before eventually succumbing to the double barrel look which tugged the best snows east. Would like to see if other models especially the mesoscale models start to delay the double barrel look or eliminate it.
  13. Jt17
    This is a better look to me than the last run: previous run:
  14. Jt17
    Nam is losing the double low look and picking a path in the middle for the track of the storm... this would make the most sense lol
  15. Jt17
    Welp we have the RAP and HRRR on our side so far... look like the Nam and Euro runs from last night. Major levels of snow for NYC Metro and historic looking for LI and the shore on both for now. Yes, yes weenie and all that.
  16. Jt17
    Lol 18z looks like 15z
  17. Jt17
    It still believes in the western low. Less energy stripped and keeps best snows slightly west... wouldn't take much.
  18. Jt17
    It really was a minor diff in output. But the look was def worse on the surface. Hopefully the double barrel low eventually becomes western dominant again - If not, the Euro would be a nice cold snow storm for the city and a pretty big storm further east.
  19. Jt17
    This run from the RAP just now is what we need regarding the double low. It emphasizes the west low and as a result it's broader and slightly west with heavy precip (run only goes to hour 21, so a number of hours of snow left after this run), it really doesn't need a shift east or west it needs to either consolidate the lows or at least emphasize the western one and we should be in for a good surprise tomorrow.
  20. Jt17
    It really isn't the track, now the qpf is being reduced by the sheered out double low look and while there was always a double low look on every run it was favoring the western one and now it's favoring the eastern one.
  21. Jt17
    I hear you, but my point is it didn't just go back to earlier presentations. It gave a completely new look that was much more strung out and worse. Its output was as low as the latest GFS. This late in the game I find it hard to ignore, but I don't deny there's a possibility it will wobble back somewhere to the 0z look (which looks like the latest euro)
  22. Jt17
    Euro is now the best look of any model besides the SREF plumes. Would sign up for a euro 6z look in a heartbeat.
  23. Jt17
    It's worse than it's 0z run too tho, and worse than the 6z euro run. It's a fairly dramatic change, especially since it seemed to be leading the way on resolving the double low into one. And then it just went full on double low
  24. Jt17
    It went with the double low look - that's the difference. If the double low look gets resolved and becomes one expect a lot of surprised people come Saturday night. If this is the actual look then we end up with a nice storm, but nothing crazy like the previous 2 NAM runs.
  25. Jt17
    1.25-1.5 over nyc nice
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