Jt17
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Everything posted by Jt17
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Agree - this run had a better track and intensity than the qpf output
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At hr 45 the double barrel low feature is almost entirely eliminated and it looks like it's in a perfect spot to bury I95 in jersey/nyc area, but then at hour 48 it hops a bit to far to the east when it full consolidates the lows into 1 and as a result misses the best snows by 30 miles. VERY close to a 15 inch+ snow storm for Central Park on this run.
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But way better? It got rid of the double barrel feature much earlier and it chose the west LP 962 basically at the benchmark, perhaps a little inside actually...
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not this time, it chooses the right playdate it appears at hr 45
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This is good...me thinks. 18z: 12z:
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.... and at 45 it goes back west and I think closes off.
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At 42 it picks the eastern one, but it does look better by a bit than last run at this point.
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If we could get some of the prettier EPS pictures to look at, I'd be quite grateful. lol
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Of course there are reasons why the depiction ends up the way it does, but I think you're still missing his point. He's trying to say when H5 looks like that it historically has a very signature output in real life and since these are model outputs days in advance he's using some reasoning, history, logic that some of the noise the models are seeing wouldn't actually come into play and we've have a bigger storm for our area. He can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's the simplest way to look at it.
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Agreed. With how close that looked I wouldn't be surprised to see a few crushers in the spread.
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It's not even about what's going to be depicted on this run or the next, what he's trying to say is if H5 literally looked like that in real time as the storm happened, the output would be for more snow than the model runs are spitting out.
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Anybody have EPS pics?
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Agree, I also am sure the ratios will be between than 10-1 in most places in a cold storm like this. People exaggerate when they say the ratio maps have no merit. The final ratios usually end up somewhere between 10-1 and the Kuchera map output and the western fringes should have a better shot at lining up with the Kuchera ratios anyway.
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12z: 6z: 30 mile shift west or so this run and a bit more organized and potent storm.
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If this is what we got the forum would be pretty happy, though it looked so close to something special that run.
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Def improved! 12z: 6z:
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Out to hour 39 on pivotal it looks better
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this is 18 hours ago before all of the other models hopped way back and GFS has recovered a bit since then fwiw.
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See you all at 12:47.
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Remember when everything (except gfs) shifted 200-300 miles last night west taking everybody off the ledge. Well depending on the model you look at, they've drifted back 20-100 miles east. Most around 50 miles. That big shift was only about about 12 hours ago. The storm is 36 hours away. There's plenty of time for changes and on most models it wouldn't take much for something great. I wouldn't write off anything yet, for better or worse.
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Nice!
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I agree, it's why I haven't given up on something major. Smallest of changes can have a huge impact on how this plays out!
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Do you have a comparison of the next frame too?
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It's a little better for sure, but still has a lot of work tho
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This.
