Jt17
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Everything posted by Jt17
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Euro Ai is more gfs like than euro like fyi. .
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How does 6z EPS look compared to 0z? .
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This just isn't what the guidance has shown at 0z or 6z - you're hugging the Euro alone if you think it's looking more like a short thump of 6-8 before turning over. .
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Things got better overnight besides Euro and Icon (which took a step back) .
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Accumulations stop around 120 .
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The output looks just like 12z GFS. 18z was doing 18z things .
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I wrote this at 108 when it looked like it was fizzling out, but the redevelopment really made it a weenie run indeed! .
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Icon a lot better at 0z than it was at 18z! .
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Yea I understand and that doesn't change the point. The thermal profile at the start beyond just the surface would bring high ratio snows for a time even in the Euro. .
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Just because the storm as depicted on Euro warms up toward the end doesn't mean on the onset there wouldn't be some very high ratio snows. It's still incredibly cold air entrenched. .
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Was it colder and snowier than Euro still? .
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I'd say a lot better... Looks like .3 more QPF than GFS .
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Been posted like 20x .
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Haven't heard him dissect any of the other modeling from the same 0z model suite other than Euro and Canadian OP. More modeling including op runs, AI and ensembles look like GFS OP than Euro OP. .
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Euro AI is a lot more like GFS and GFS AI hopefully a sign Euro is a little too quick and amped .
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I'm not going to complain. I'm telling you what's going to happen in this forum because it happens every time. .
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GFS and Euro AI would be a lot more fun than this run of the Euro. All the whining that the dryslot arrived too soon and it it's drizzling even after 10-12 inches of snow would be annoying. lol .
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Even the steam grate CP measures their snow on top of should be frozen this time. .
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So euro kind of stuck with idea for 0z and 6z and AI headed more toward GFS? .
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Looked super cold throughout. Would be a classic! .
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1.1 had fallen by 126 and it just broke above 20 degrees in the city at 23. I'm guessing it's no changeover. Can't really tell on pivotal .
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Euro at 6z trended back a bit south another similar tick and a little slower and it would look more like the GFS. .
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EPS looks pretty ideal for NYC .
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Isn't in line with anything else yet. Let's see if Euro keeps us sane .
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That's a pretty weird .3-.4 missing qpf blob for NYC too lol nice weird run .
