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Jt17

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Everything posted by Jt17

  1. Jt17
    I think Kuchera amount for nyc is prob closer to 24 inches. It's hard to tell due to the low resolution of this map, but I could be wrong.
  2. Jt17
    Have the whole storm totals?
  3. Jt17
    I hear you, but usually there's a model or 2 in a different camp and the mets go with model majority+climo and the different camp was onto something. No matter what camp you choose it's 12"+ the 6" just looks out to lunch this close to game time imo.
  4. Jt17
    6-12 inch storm watch for NYC is starting to seem a little silly - it's been at that for nearly 10 hours and I think plenty of data has come in for Upton to bump that figure up and set a winter storm warning.
  5. Jt17
    If it makes it to 21" it's top 4, so there is a somewhat statistically reasonable chance of this albeit small, but top 3 is around 25" and that seems very unlikely lol
  6. Jt17
    NAM is prob a little east and Euro a little west. Take a blend and you might have a better idea of the final map. That being said save for the far end of Long Island most of the subforum is in a good spot for 12-20+inches (and NYC is sort of smack in the center of both camps, fwiw)
  7. Jt17
    And this is the tamest total of any model - wonder what the para shows!
  8. Jt17
    Euro, NAM and Para are all 15+ for nyc bud, seems like you're just keeping out excitement in check lol!
  9. Jt17
    This isn't even a kuchera map with ratios. I'm sure that would look even more nuts!
  10. Jt17
    That's the regular GFS... you sure you aren't looking at an old model run... Plus the seemingly more accurate GFSv16 says this underdone...
  11. Jt17
    He was referring to the short term models like the NAM that haven't come into range yet and usually have a warm and amped bias. The globals aren't showing the same thing.
  12. Jt17
    It does seem that the radar will fill out NYC and East first before precip swings into north and central NJ to fill in the dry slot. Depending on how much sleet there is in NYC area East they might surprise some folks with higher totals than expected.
  13. Jt17
    Does that show 10 inches left in NYC? That would be nuts.
  14. Jt17
    Agree... this was literally exactly as predicted; in fact the dry slot doesn't look nearly as bad as I thought it would!
  15. Jt17
    This was 2 hours ago...
  16. Jt17
    Take it easy man - without MJO812 half of the useful content would disappear from this forum.
  17. Jt17
    Can you post the maps?
  18. Jt17
    Am I missing something? The most recent runs of the euro and gfs show 15+ inches for nyc with what I believe was no mixing issues. I understand the nam looks really messy, but the assertion that everything has trended to much smaller snow totals is simply false. The two major global models most recent runs say a huge storm is still possible.
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