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Northof78

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Everything posted by Northof78

  1. Northof78
    Wow, on that suite of 12Z models....if you average all, axis is through NYC give or take 10 miles, with average total accumulations of 8-10"
  2. Northof78
    I don't think north of I-84 receives much above 4/5" max...this is a compact/strong storm with a very sharp N gradient.
  3. Northof78
    When Kuchera is 6-10", 6-10" it is (assuming output is right to begin with), and warm ground, marginal airmass, sun angle, etc. (just as always is outside of the pavement in Times Square) is overrated.
  4. Northof78
    As long as ground temps are 33/34F or less, I think we are close to 10/9:1 with very heavy rates, favorable growth, and 850 temps of between -3 and -6F.
  5. Northof78
    New NAM....large banding signature and very strong storm in nice spot 6-12" for almost all of region...
  6. Northof78
    If you live north of 84, maybe even 80, you should be...
  7. Northof78
    The bigger risk now is this south/suppression/flat trend continues, not too far north..need to see trend stop now
  8. Northof78
    I would be cautious currently north of I84, there is a sharp cutoff around there on almost all models....
  9. Northof78
    :-)
  10. Northof78
    Looks like we got a good one here boys…enjoy the show! Many will be surprised with this, nice bombing coastal low off VA/Delmarva moving ENE will do that…all models now on top of each other
  11. Northof78
    Thats not QPF, that's accumulation of snow map
  12. Northof78
    Monmouth jackpot?
  13. Northof78
    Temps today about 3-5F colder than progged, fresh NW wind
  14. Northof78
    NAM exists low off VA coast and SECS for the region...
  15. Northof78
    First and Final Call: S LI/C NJ Coast: C-2” N LI/NYC/Immediate NJ suburbs/C NJ: 1-3” N/C NJ ( N of 78/W of GSP), to 287 in S NY State: 3-5” N/W NJ, N of 287 in NY State: 4-8” Should be an interesting, dynamic coastal storm, and could be largest this year for some on the forum
  16. Northof78
    When models are still hundreds of miles apart, a 25/50 mile blip from one model one way is noise, patience and let this one settle into the pocket. I think something close to the GFS/EURO blend is about right, with 2-4" near the coast/NYC and more N-W, but lets see...
  17. Northof78
    3-5" for NYC from both the EURO/GFS and the most north models...seems like a good start for accumulation potential
  18. Northof78
    Old school is best, none of this fancy mumbo jumbo....
  19. Northof78
    GFS shows a nice CCB (-3F 850) with snows as low exists to the NE south of us...has about 3-5" for NYC and more to the N/W
  20. Northof78
    NAM/RGEM/CMC south/surpressed, EURO/GFS middle ground, ICON far north
  21. Northof78
    Agreed, prob end up stronger and closer to EURO
  22. Northof78
    12Z NAM continues way south with suppression more of an issue
  23. Northof78
    Looks like 3-6" type event for Metro north of Rt.78 or so
  24. Northof78
    18Z NAM....book it
  25. Northof78
    Very early to get a sense from the NAM, but looks quite promising at the last frame for a good metro storm, looks roughly in line or a touch south of latest GFS.
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