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Spanks45

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Everything posted by Spanks45

  1. Spanks45
    Overall the run looked like the confluence had a stronger impact on the system as a whole than it did on the 6z. So did the Icon. Maybe there is something to the EPS having some lows hang back for a Monday/Tuesday storm?
  2. Spanks45
    As did the EPS, so there was some hope. But seeing the NAM come in stronger with the confluence was no good. Its the one model that seems to always gives hope to those on the northern fringe and seems like it does score some wins there....maybe it is ok with forecasting NE confluence?
  3. Spanks45
    I know it's the NAM at the end of its run, but I have noticed it can sniff out some trends, IF it continues to trend in one direction, in this case north. Usually it ends up wrong when it starts out somewhere and just becomes bullheaded and doesnt budge. However, today the NAM started shifting south. The writing is on the wall unfortunately...NEXT
  4. Spanks45
    Just had another, not bad for January 9th
  5. Spanks45
    I'm not sure I have ever heard such a loud rumble of thunder! Shook the house like an earthquake....geez
  6. Spanks45
    Where do I sign?
  7. Spanks45
    Looks like a squall line coming through eastern PA right now....
  8. Spanks45
    There are a few south of Long island on Monday, seems like something redevelops and then moves northeast Monday into Tuesday. Sunday is just some light snow south of the pike.
  9. Spanks45
  10. Spanks45
    I feel like there were more than a couple of the EPS members that actually have accumulating snow Monday into Tuesday. I would assume that they were also seeing this as a possibility.
  11. Spanks45
    At least that EURO run gets me some flakes/virga. That wasn't anywhere near me on 0z run. I really hope this weekend's storm lining up perfectly with "the streak" isn't a sign of whats to come. It could make for a rough second half....
  12. Spanks45
    There goes the 18z GFS getting ready to squash this thing to the south...confluence to the north stronger and further southwest....
  13. Spanks45
    I know mother nature doesn't care, but it has been a ton of bad luck since November 15th one would think the law of average says something finally breaks the right way....
  14. Spanks45
    What a waste of cold air....27 for the high, already down to 25 and it will be 45 tomorrow and light rain...great stuff
  15. Spanks45
    now the fear of suppression starts....
  16. Spanks45
    Yesterday's 12z eps had one member that gave our region 30-40" of snow through 15 days and that was with next weekend missing, there was 2 big ones, one right after another....good signs at least.
  17. Spanks45
    Is that the beginning of the pattern change I see on the EPS now within the 10 day window?
  18. Spanks45
    and at the surface it is worse. more snow for North Carolina though, good for them...
  19. Spanks45
    I would concur, looks better at this point...maybe a little GFSish? Last night still gave us southerners down here some snow.
  20. Spanks45
    Snowing at 138 hours on the GFS, looks good so far.....Great high to the north
  21. Spanks45
    This is setting up the classic GFS has it, EURO sort of but not what we want. Just enough to keep us excited then an 18z run of the GFS loses it completely, leaving us all jumping off cliffs over an 18z run of the GFS....
  22. Spanks45
    Seeing next weekend show up on most models from time to time, the ensembles have it in one form or another, seems to give you the feeling that something might actually be coming. Details obviously are very foggy and will be for sometime....
  23. Spanks45
    Since I moved up here in late 2014, this has been the case....
  24. Spanks45
    GFS progressive bias should put this somewhere south of long Island to Cleveland by that time...
  25. Spanks45
    Ugh, 981 at the benchmark...don't really want to see it there 6.5 days out, congrats someone else...
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