fujiwara79

The jackpot of this winter has been the Catoctin Mountains. Specifically, northwest Frederick County and eastern Washington County. Those areas have about 55" for the season. About 60 miles due south of there, as the crow flies, there was only about 10". Crazy N-S gradient right at that longitude.

haven't seen this much heavy snow with southerly winds since 2014.

we're going to end the season with a big snow storm. March is the new January.

if the arctic air dumps into the south central states before trudging east, then yes that's how it works. not all arctic outbreaks do that. some directly target the northeast. but we haven't had one of those in years. look at 2004 in new england. one of the coldest winters ever in new england. those arctic blasts targeted them and didn't dump into the south central states at all.

i'm not saying there's any causality. it's just a correlation. it could be random, but statistically that's very unlikely, to keep getting a very hot summer every 11th year. the solar cycle is 11 years, so maybe there's some causality there, but very difficult to prove the precise mechanism. come to think of it, i think the summer of 1933 was also very hot. so this correlation goes back a very long time.

those were historically hot summers across the northeast. not just run-of-the-mill hot around dc. it's a thing.

yesterday was the first time in two years dca had a high of 32 or less. today will be the second. so....there is that. kind of unbelievable that we haven't had a true arctic outbreak in three years. the midwest is experiencing an epic one now. dallas may go below zero on tuesday morning. but it'll just become stale by the time it gets here. personally, while snow is my #1 criteria for a good winter, i also consider the number of arctic outbreaks to be the second factor. in that area, we have been lacking for a while now.

we also seem to have scorching summers every 11 years. summer of 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010. that means this summer is going to be brutal. get ready.

seems like we spend most of our time chasing unicorns (-ao/-nao). that unicorn was here all year and didn't deliver much for dc proper. a bad pacific will easily emasculate a good atlantic. northwest of the cities it's been a satisfactory winter. it's underperformed relative to what we should have gotten based on a great -ao/-nao but better the past two winters for sure.

Hate to say I told you so, but....I told you so.

18" here. looks like some dry air moving in from the east so it'll stop for a while.

Now up to 15". Still coming down hard.

12" near Hagerstown. Judging by the radar and mesos, we're probably heading towards 18". We went from a bust to an overperformer.

heavy snow near hagerstown. picked up 2" over the past hour. 9" total. big fatties.

globals were pretty bad; mesos were pretty good. according to gfs, we should be pouring rain right now and approaching 40 degrees. what a terrible model.

I think 48 hours of sporadic light snow should get you 2 additional inches...so yes!

So the DC metro area was forecast to receive 4-8" of snow. After this is all over, it seems that forecast will verify. Granted it will take 48 hours of sporadic light snow to get there, but I wonder why there is so much gloom in this forum. The heavier snow was always going to be further NE. At least it wasn't a complete whiff like 12/30/2000 or 12/26/2010 or countless others.

it seems like the same things happen with every storm: radar hallucinations, freaking out about dry slots, and declaring the storm to be a failure before it's over.

qanon + 4chan = 40westwx

i've noticed on tropical tidbits, the icon never depicts precip that is a mix or ice. it only shows rain or snow. any idea why?

yeah, the second half of that winter was very active. the first half of that winter was basically snowless everywhere. we had a severely negative ao/nao the entire winter though. i'm guessing the first half of the winter must have been a lot of suppression. eventually the dam broke and we cashed in.

ikcarsky sounds like the My Pillow guy. take some herbal supplements + hcq and call him in the morning. he'll even give you a a free pillow if you take his cocktail potion.

i believe we had a severely negative -nao/-ao during the winter of 59-60. and yet we were completely snowless until sometime in february that season? patience.

if all people need to care about is the risk of dying, then you're probably correct. however, long-term covid symptoms is a very real thing people are experiencing. it appears similar to chronic lyme disease. and if you talk to people who have chronic lyme -- their lives are miserable. hopefully chronic covid doesn't become a big problem, but it definitely lingers in some people longer than the flu. measles has a much lower ifr than covid and we vaccinate for that.

federalism means most management, governance and coordination is delegated (federated) to the states. my point was that this doesn't work when managing a crisis. the government should play a more central role but it currently doesn't. germany employs federalism as well, but they coordinate much better amongst their regions than we do.